will zanu p.f cope without mugabe

HOW WILL ZANU P.F AND OPPOSSITION COPE WITHOUT NONAGERIAN MUGABE President Mugabe this year celebrates his 91 st birthday amidst unmitigated praise singing and an unprecedented bootlicking scramble from his political acolytes alongside desperate political party pilgrims desperate to pay homage to their Nonagenarian leader at the temple of a modern day Gerontocracy[rule of the elderly ]. What is of great concern however to any responsible citizen is what will happen if and when inevitably due to natural attrition ,biological inevitability and the call of divinity the President is unable to continue with his journey in life . At the age of 91 such a possibility inevitably increases by the day and any institution or political party which ignores this reality is oblivious and impervious to both reason and wisdom . Whilst in our culture it is taboo to talk about issues of death in regards to the living in the case of a country ruled by a Nonagenarian such thoughts and debates are critical not only in terms of succession planning but also in terms of futuristic planning and scenario management . It is as a clear as the sky that there is no unanimity about Emerson Mnangwaga being the “anointed successor “of Robert Mugabe as stated by Jonathan Moyo who argued that the Vice President was not “anointed but appointed” . The fight for succession is far from over and importantly the death or demise of Mugabe could trigger a crisis not only in ZANU P.F but also in the opposition. The demise or death of Mugabe could leave the opposition in shambles as for years the departure of Mugabe has been a rallying call and when this finally happens outside the confines of electoral processes but due to natural and inevitable natural processes the opposition will be left without a clarion call or rallying point since Mugabe would have gone . This would be more problematic for the opposition if he is replaced by a younger ,reform minded individual as this would render the opposition irrelevant . The continued existence and presence of Mugabe on the political scene has thus been oxymoronic for them since he has created a groundswell of popular sentiment against himself but at the same time his presence seems to have gelled ZANU P.F together and none of the factions are capable of removing him whilst he is still alive .His demise could however also be the demise of the fractious ZANU P.F which has only survived because of four factors namely : 1.Backing of the military and other state security apparatus 2.The existence of a strong dictatorial nationalist figure epitomizing the liberation struggle [ Mugabe ]. 3.Incumbency 4.Brute force – through coercive legislation . ZANU P.F in spite of all its structures and liberation ideology is likely to crumble into fragments once Mugabe goes as this could also mean the collapse of an entire patronage system and the re emergence of old and new camps .It is already clear that those who are purported to be in vice president Mnangwagwa’s camp were or are united more for their desire to eliminate Mujuru from the political scene rather than mere friendship . Machiavellian politics is driven by interests not friendship . It is quite possible and probable that once Mugabe goes some in that some will attempt to torpedo the Ngwena from that post [Mnangwagwa ] from within the Mnangwagwa camp ] .Joyce Mujury is not totally finished as she still has a sizeable number of Members of Parliament that are in her camp and if the next president is then chosen by the party which has the majority number of seats in parliament and if then this is left to parliament to vote Mujuru still has a chance to emerge as a presidential hopeful assuming that it is not the Politburo which will do that .This is only possible technically but practically and politically the party and the government according to ZANU P.F are one . Complications will arise upon Mugabe’s demise because the party will no longer have a central rallying figure who was/is able to glue the party together either by virtue of age or through playing the factions against each other in order to remain relevant .The hate speech which ZANU P.F factions have been using against each other is likely to then translate into open conflict which may have direct consequences on national stability .Sections of the military may choose to openly associate or back one faction or the other a situation which is untenable at the moment with Mugabe being alive .. On the other hand it is possible but unlikely that there will be a smooth transition with a new leader possibly Mnangwagwa being elected as president from within ZANU P.F but if this happens the Mujuru faction may join forces with the opposition either covertly or overtly and challenge ZANU P.F in 2018 . If his happens Emmerson Mnangwagwa may win the battle for succession in the short term but in the long term lose the 20 18 elections . Mayibuye !

Does Electoral Democracy Work In Africa

DOES ELECTORAL DEMOCRACY WORK ? I regard myself as a proponent and advocate of democracy but i strongly believe that we need to interrogate the very concept of democracy ,its applicability and more importantly its evolution especially in African societies and specifically in Zimbabwe .This is critical because modern democracy evolved from ancient Greek civilization and metamorphosed over centuries in Europe in the form of parliamentary democracy and then the Americas through constitutional democracy , .Importantly not only did it metamorphose over centuries but democracy is also dependent on other key factors without which it becomes a facade or a political ritual carried out with religious fervour but with disappointing returns or dividends . Abraham Lincoln in his Gettysburg speech famously remarked that a “government of the people , by the people ,from the people will not perish “and in some contexts this has been used a definition of democracy – a government of the people , by the people , from the people .In spite of this the Americans still had to undergo almost a century of political evolution before civil rights could be granted to black people .This was centuries after the Emancipation Proclamation which in effect supposedly ended slavery and the American Declaration of Independence which eloquently declared “we declare that all people are created equal “ . In spite of all these pronouncements and edicts America was not really democratized for centuries afterwards and it took the likes of Dr Martin Luther King Junior ,Rosa Parks ,the Black Panthers , Malcolm X and much later on Reverend Jesse Jackson to challenge the system in order for democraticization to take place . Typically democracy is epitomized by regular , free and fair elections , a free media ,a good constitution and constitutionalism ,respect for fundamental freedoms and citizen participation in decision-making .I will not attempt to make a wholesale analysis of democracy in this instalment as this would require broader and deeper academic combat .However i am deeply concerned at what we term electoral democracy for a number of reasons . Assuming that an election is free and fair and nobody is beaten ,threatened or killed but totally useless people are elected does this make the whole process successful ? In the first place do people have all the required information about the process ,the political parties and the individuals they are voting for ? . I would like to argue that in the Zimbabwean context people’s choices are limited by lack of robust debate ,a free press [more specifically the broadcast media ]. At the level of political parties primary elections are dominated by internal and eternal rigging ,characterized by bussing of voters ,manipulation of the voters rolls ,voter buying and candidate imposition .There is very little debate on the quality of candidates and what they have to offer but a lot depends on patronage networks within the parties both ruling and opposition . Quality candidates are thus sidelined at this level as the toughest “gangsters “are the ones that make it to the top and not necessarily the best brains or the best or most suitable candidates .These candidates then represent their parties in national elections and contest against other thugs from other parties and the result is all too familiar opportunists ,kleptocracts win elections and carry on with their trade in official public positions disappointingly to the shock of the electorate . At the end of the day elections in Africa especially in Zimbabwe are not a contest of ideas but a contest of “fists “as even President Robert Mugabe admitted . How do you explain that some of the best achieving members of parliament such as David Coltart were beaten in elections and the majority of those elected have distinguished themselves by their deafening silence .There are quality people on either side of the political divide but unfortunately they have fallen victim to gangster politics or a politically intoxicated environment which has little room for ideas and plenty of room for hot air and sloganeering . Until such a time that we have free debate , free movement of ideas and ideas we will continue with this facade of elections were those with the capacity to outmuscle opponents are elected at the expense of quality leaders imbued with vision , courage ,selflessness and innovation . Electoral democracy should work well in a context were there is freedom of speech , freedom of association , a robust media ,internal party democracy [ whatever that is] and above all an understanding that elections are contests of ideas not a platform for the clueless .There just too many followers that are leading and too many leaders that are following in Zimbabwe because of the emphasis on the primitive politics of patronage ,hate and partisanship .Quality leadership is not necessarily about academic qualifications but craft competence ,social enterprise ,vision and a willingness to serve people rather than be served by them . Our biggest tragedy in Africa is that we pay scant attention to the policy blueprints [manifestoes ] of political parties and the credentials of candidates in terms of what they can offer and instead just vote blindly in a political ritual we call elections as part of what we ignorantly call democracy . Mayibuye !