Political Parties Need To Be Pragmatic

Political Parties Need To Be Pragmatic and Practical

DUMISANI O NKOMO

Prime Minister Morgan Tsvangirai last week threatened to pull out of the inclusive government after the removal of former speaker Lovemore Moyo and the arrest of Energy Minister Elton Mangoma  .Whilst the Prime Minister was justified in his indignation it is in the best interests of the M.D.C T and indeed all progressive Zimbabweans for political party leaders to think objectively and carefully before committing acts of political suicide which will only be beneficial to ZANU P.F which has been praying for the demise of the inclusive government  and attendant imperatives contained in the Global Political Agreement .If the M.D.C -T pulls out of the inclusive government without an alternative plan this will be tantamount to drinking poison and expecting ZANU P.F to die .The ZANU PF strategy is to push the M.D.C formations to the limit by arresting their legislators ,ignoring the outstanding issues in the Global Agreement and thereby creating more outstanding issues whilst preparing the ground for an election .This election will not just be about settling the unresolved  results of the 2008 elections  but for  addressing pertinent and outstanding succession issues within ZANU PF .

The arrest of M.D.C legislators and members may increase in the next few months thus forcing the opposition parties to respond emotionally without carefully thinking through strategic issues .In responding emotionally to issues the M.D.C T may then fall into well planned ZANU P.F traps which may include more criminal proceedings against the likes of the Prime Minister and other key opposition leaders .In desperation the M.D.C T will then be forced to quit the government of national unity [ G.N.U]  .This would be a most suicidal move as ZANU  PF as this would be an answered prayer for ZANU P.F strategists who are wary about the implications of the full implementation of the Global Political Agreement .At the moment the M.D.C T does not have a plan B and in the absence of such alternatives their only option is the full implementation of the Global Political Agreement coupled with aggressive and pro active  internal mobilization ,intelligent regional and international advocacy .This would be underpinned by strategic alliances with other political parties such as the M.D.C led by Professor Ncube and ZAPU led by former ZIPRA intelligence supremo Dumiso Dabengwa .

None of the three leading opposition parties can make any meaningful progress without each other at the moment and any attempts at self seeking glory would be tantamount to mass political suicide .Instead of forming strategic alliances Zimbabwe’s main political parties are wasting time feasting  on each other’s failures and failing to stand in solidarity with each other at a time when ZANU P.F is indeed experiencing” a Lazarus “moment as Jonathan Moyo predicted and is on the warpath  dealing  ruthlessly with opponents by all means necessary . Dumiso Dabengwa’s principled stand  to express solidarity with incarcerated M.D.C T leaders was to this extent admirable and exemplary  .Such reciprocal actions were expected from the M.DC T when the three Mthwakazi Liberation Front  leaders were arrested on trumped up charges  of treason and similarly opposition parties were expected to unite in expressing solidarity with Munyaradzi Gwisai and over forty other activists who were arrested recently  .

None of the three parties in the G.N.U can elect a new speaker without the support of at least one other party .This is without discounting the possibility of gangster tactics such attempts to win over individual M.P’s either from M.DC or ZANU P F using Machiavellian antics of “carrot and stick “. It is at such a time that the political parties should be kicking themselves for failing to  seize on moments of strategic importance and strategic and principled solidarity .A golden opportunity was lost when Mugabe refused to acknowledge Welshman Ncube as a Principal and Deputy Prime Minister and the  M.D.C T arrogantly referred to  this as an internal problem within  Ncube’s M.D.C  .A golden opportunity was lost when M.D.C then under Mutambara failed to side with the M.D.C T on the issue of the swearing in of Roy Bennet and the contentious issues of the appointment of ambassadors ,the attorney general and the reserve bank governor .The M.D.C [Ncube ] then exhibited intellectual arrogance  by arguing that undue focus was being placed on personalities and posts not policies .Whilst they may have been right ,surely the chickens came home to roost when Ncube was then due to be sworn in as Deputy Prime Minister and Mugabe refused to swear him  that capacity .Now there is the issue of the election of the new speaker and the two M.D.C formations need each other  whether they like it or not .Pride ,polarization and lack of principled positions may cost the two parties dearly in the race for the speakership and beyond if the two parties don’t start acting in the best interests of the nation .Obviously more members of parliament may be arrested thus reducing the M.D.C T ‘s votes in the contest for the speakership .Instead of reveling in the arrest of these M.P’s and lambasting Tsvangirai ,Ncube’s M.DC  should condemn these attacks in the same way that the M.D.C T should make principled attempts to recognize Ncube as leader of the other M.D.C formation as a matter of principle ,pragmatism and appreciation of the political reality that Ncube is in control of most of his members of parliament ,a factor which could be useful to M.D.C T in the future  .This is the politics of pragmatism which is  so critical to statecraft  and effective political lobbying through strategic partnerships .The issue of Ncube being a Principal  will cease to be an internal issue when M.D.C T needs the support of Ncube’s M.P’s in parliament and when Tsvangirai needs Ncube’s support at the level of the principals because Mutambara may side with Mugabe .Why side with two wolves when you are a sheep ?Similarly for the  M.D.C led by Ncube  they should not cheer  when a fellow opposition  sheep is being devoured especially if one is   also a sheep and is  subject to the canine appetite of political wolves such as ZANU P.F .Why are our politicians so shortsighted ?

Ncube’s party is wasting too much time attacking Morgan Tsvangirai and M.D.C T is wasting chances by denigrating Ncube and both parties are failing to seize the moment by forming an electoral pact with ZAPU .Are  these parties really serious about liberating Zimbabwe or they just wasting our time ?ZAPU  is critical in the transfer of power equation ,dividing the ZANU PF vote and unseating the former liberation party from some of its strongholds in Bubi ,Gwanda South and Beitbridge .The M..D.C led by Ncube with it’s deciding seats in parliament is crucial and strategic in  sites of struggle in parliament .The party also has reputable and experienced politicians who are definitely part of the country’s solution to the future .The M.D.C T enjoys huge grassroots support ,is buoyed by the charismatic Tsvangirai brand ,the incredible  resilience of its ,nationwide support  and ability to read popular politics .However without the support of the other two political parties the M.D.C T is a beautiful vehicle  which cannot move because it has  no fuel to translate popularity to transfer of power .Zimbabwe needs Morgan Tsvangirai ,Zimbabwe needs Welshman Ncube and Zimbabwe needs  Dumiso Dabengwa .Any politician from these three parties who tries to play superman could find himself relegated  to the dustbin of history .

Once again I urge these parties to stop wasting time castigating each other whilst the country burns as a strategic alliance of democratic forces should become an inevitability .Pragmatism is an imperative in the rough political terrain of Zimbabwe .The opposition parties need each other because as the bible counsels  in Eccclesiastes3 :9-12

“Two are better than one ,because they have a better return for their work

If one falls down ,his friend can help him ,

But pity the man who falls down and has no one to help him

Though one may be overpowered ,two can defend themselves

A cord of three strands is not easily broken “

“Mayibuye iZimbabwe “

Dumisani  is the chief executive officer of Habakkuk Trust and principal spokesperson of the Matabeleland Civil Society Consortium ,he writes here in his personal capacity .He can be contacted on dumisani.nkomo@gmail.com/blogspot-www,dumisanionkomo.blogspot.com

dumisani o nkomo: What Will Happen If Mugabe Leaves ?

dumisani o nkomo: What Will Happen If Mugabe Leaves ?: "THE DYNAMICS OF POWER POLITICS –WHAT WILL HAPPEN IF MUGABE LEAVES BY Dumisani O. NkomoThe cry of many opposition groups and Zimbabweans for ..."

What Will Happen If Mugabe Leaves ?

THE DYNAMICS OF POWER POLITICS –WHAT WILL HAPPEN IF MUGABE LEAVES

BY Dumisani O. Nkomo

The cry of many opposition groups and Zimbabweans for the past few decades has been for President Mugabe to “go “and numerous avenues of his political exit have been explored and debated .This exit is however inevitable with the passage of time and could  come in the form of legitimate electoral processes ,divine or natural processes as no one can possibly live forever and at 87  it is critical for us as Zimbabweans to start thinking of what will happen if Mugabe is no longer available to lead the country ,is incapacitated or succumbs to natural or biological processes or divinity  .I would like to argue that the issue of transfer of power is going to be very critical in the next few years if not months and failure to appreciate the dynamics of power could result in Mugabe going without any democratic transition taking place .It is important to understand that a lot of the current political maneuvering within ZANU P.F  is largely in the context of succession politics and if this is not handled carefully the country could very easily find itself being run by a military dictatorship .

Whilst many argue that the securoctrat are already running the country ,the possibilities of the military overtly and effectively taking the reigns of power if Mugabe goes are very high .Given perceptions and speculation about the president’s health and the mortality of all human kind it becomes not only necessary but also critical to ponder and cogitate about possibilities should the president’s health not improve either now or in the next few years .

The implication of an early election or any other legitimate process of regime change will also bring us back to the same question of transfer of power which nobody in the opposition parties seems to have an answer to .Will an election this year be really about settling the issue of contested elections and the undesirability of a government of national unity or will it be about dealing with succession issues within ZANU P.F .Mugabe is undoubtedly ZANU PF ‘s trump card In an election in spite of his blighted human rights record he still commands the support and respect of his supporters .ZANU P.F stewards would also be making permutations on their electoral performance if elections are held in 2013 in the absence of Mugabe and possibly would envisage defeat at the hands of the political foes in the absence of the octogenarian leader  .What would happen upon his demise due the aforementioned natural processes? Would ZANU P.F disintegrate? Will there be open fighting between the ZANUP.F factions, will the army take over? Or will the party close ranks and choose either Mnangwagwa or Mujuru or even Chiwengwa as successor ?Would the demise of Mugabe at this point be good for the nation or would it plunge the country into chaos as the military steps in ?Are there possibilities of moderators or reformists taking over ZANU P.F and as some analysts have suggested a “new “ZANU P.F being birthed .Will a Gorbachev or a de  Klerk emerge from ZANU P.F or will another megalomaniac emerge and what will be the role of the other political parties namely the M.D.C formations and ZAPU be in this scenario ?.These are the kind of questions that I will briefly interrogate and proffer a few suggestions and more rhetorical questions .

Will The Army Take Over?

Chances of the military taking over should the incumbent go are undesirable but highly possible .If this happens the new junta could dissolve the unity government and arrest opposition leaders with others fleeing the country .SADC ,,the A.U and the international community would make a lot of noise but to no avail as is the norm .However it is possible that a noble “regime may take over and hand over to a transitional authority .This is desirable but highly unlikely .A military government would be highly undesirable and could take the country back by another ten to twenty years in terms of democratic reform and respect for civil liberties .

Mujuru Takes Over

Should the incumbent be incapacitated by any factors or processes beyond his control there is  also a possibility that the two houses of parliament may sit as an electoral college and nominate a “successor “.Joyce Mujuru seems to appeal to a broad cross section including business and possibly the M.D.C formations and ZAPU .She could emerge as a compromise candidate .Possibilities of a reform agenda are moderately and reasonably higher should she take over the reigns .If this scenario prevails there could be movement towards a form of “glasnost and perestroika “openness and transparency Soviet Union style .This scenario would be most welcome and could give Zimbabwe space to reform and stabilize outside of other better and practical options .

ZANU P.F BREAKS DOWN

Robert Mugabe has personified and embodied ZANU PF and ZANUISM and his demise could spell the rapid destruction of the party .He has delicately managed various factions within the party making sure that no faction is too strong and that any faction that seems to be growing too strong is weakened and the faction which is weaker is strengthened but in the process making himself the most relevant political currency in his party .The likelihood of ZANU P.F descending into anarchy once he leaves is high and whilst this may be desirable for many this would be most undesirable if and when it spills into the public domain of governance and triggers national chaos as  party hawks ,vultures and other political scavengers descend on the national carcass and ravage democracy    .Can ZANU P.F survive without Mugabe? This is a question which I am sure many party stalwarts are battling with  and are making strategic positions about .

If Elections Are Held This Year

If elections are held this year there will be increased violence at all levels as the early warning systems already indicate through the manifestations of anarchy  and the structures that breed it .Fear  will be used to cow people to submission and opposition leaders will be arrested en masse for various crimes as is the case now .At a community level party youths will be used to harass and intimidate villagers and residents .Opposition leaders will be targetted through the police and state security agents resulting in them spending the bulk of their time fighting court cases instead of campaigning .Results of a survey carried out by Professor Susan Booysen  working with the Mass Public Opinion Institute suggest that the M.D.C T ‘s support base has been eroded from around 55 % in 2009 to about 38 % .Even if this figure is not accurate the constitutional outreach process is a significant indicator that ZANU PF may win the elections .if ZANU P.F wins the elections we could be back to the days of the Zimbawean dollar ,shortages and unprecedented suffering .This will enable Mugabe to facilitate some kind of succession positioning as Joyce Mujuru would be strategically positioned to take over “should anything happen “ .ZANU PF would gun for  a parliamentary majority so that  they can ensure that a leader of their choice is elected by both houses of parliament should Mugabe be unable to continue .

IF M.D.C WINS

In the event of the M.D.C formations forming an electoral pact with ZAPU and winning the elections the same question of transfer of power will emerge because there has to be a mechanism of transferring the electoral conquest into actual power to govern .

I rest my case

Mayibuye iZimbabwe

Dumisani O Nkomo

The writer can be contacted on dumisani.nkomo@gmail.com /blogspot-www.dumisanio.nkomo.blogspot.com

Breaking The Cycle of Victimism

Zimbabwe –Breaking The Cycle of Victimism and Taking Charge of Our Destiny

By Dumisani O. Nkomo

I am inspired by two stories in the bible which describe two sets of people in potentially hopeless situations and who by the very virtue of their contexts  were  to all intents and purposes helpless victims .In the first instance we read in the book of John chapter 5 : 5 of a man who had been an invalid for 38 years and on a daily basis waited at the pool of Bethesda for healing .This man was not in charge of his own future and destiny and anxiously waited for somebody somewhere to rescue him .Well that sort of reminds me of Zimbabwe and our predicament of 31 years were we do not appear to be in charge of our destiny and we await SADC ,the African Union ,the EUROPEAN Union and the United Nations to somehow recue us .The other story which is poignant to the premise of taking charge is found in 2 Kings 7 :4 in which four leper find themselves in a hopeless and helpless situation characterized by severe famine and lack .Instead of just sitting and waiting the four ask themselves “why sit here until we die ,let us go over to the other side and if they kill us we die ,if they spare us we live “ .In doing this the lepers took their future into their own hands and refused to be victims of their situation and we learn later that they actually managed to survive and come across much abundance .We as Zimbabweans today need to move  away from the vicious cycle of victimism ,crippling  powerlessness and hopelessness and take charge of the political and economic destiny of this great nation .

I order to for Zimbabwe to move forward as a nation there is an urgent need for us to break the cycle of victimism that has largely affected our ability as a nation to take shape our  destiny and   to claim back our future which has been systematically stolen from us in the past thirty years and some would argue for the past century since colonialism . Victimism has not just affected Zimbabwe alone but this phenomenon of victimism is common in the whole of Africa which though being the richest continent in terms of natural resources is the poorest in terms of actual wealth .I would like to argue that part of the problem is the fact that centuries after colonialism and on average fifty years after independence most African countries continue to lay blame on former colonial powers for their current predicament .This cycle of victimism is not limited to statesmen alone as opposition parties ,civil society an churches have joined in making the circle of victimism larger .In Zimbabwe we are unable to explain  anything without blaming ZANU P.F ,Tsvangirai ,ZAPU ,the west ,sanctions ,Welshman Ncube ,Shonas or Ndebeles or whites or anybody but ourselves for the predicament that we find ourselves in .There is a need for us to conjure a new narrative in which we define our own destiny and course of action .The African Union ,SADC or the African Union cannot solve our problems for  us but these are support mechanisms and systems that are meant to assist us as we navigate our own path .

A victim is unable to take charge of one’s life or destiny and as such is dependent on others to solve his or her problems .Have we become like that in Zimbabwe ?Evidence of  this vicious cycle of victimism lies in the fact that most of us including civil society and political parties have been forced to merely respond and react to what ZANU P.F without being able to generate  vision ,strategy and sustainable action .The results of this victimism are a sense of powerlessness ,hopelessness and fear .These factors conspire to paralyze any form of positive action and reduce us to passive passengers on the Zimbabwean journey .

One common lamentative narrative blames the west, colonialism, neo colonialism and neo liberalism for the underdeveloped state of Africa and Zimbabwe. Sanctions and an unfair international political and economic order are according to this narrative to blame for our collective predicament as Zimbabweans. On the other hand another narrative most commonly articulated by civil society and opposition parties predicates all our suffering on the political crisis in the nation, ZANU PF, war vets, the repressive laws such as POSA and AIPPA, adverse economic conditions. Many of us are now incapable of seeing beyond the crisis and whilst we are so clear about what we do not want we do not have a clearly articulated vision of what we want and how we want to get there. Political parties and civic groups have been formed purely as an emotional response to the state of affairs without clear cut ideologies, principles, policies and vision.

 Sadly at times our victim mentality is such that whenever we are given platforms locally, regionally and internationally we think our case will be heard if we portray ourselves as helpless victims incapable of influencing our own destiny. Whilst all these external factors have a huge bearing on our plight as Zimbabweans and Africans I believe the time has come for us to begin seeing ourselves as part of the solution to the immense challenges that we face. For as long as we delight in being victims we shall never be free and we shall never maximize our potential as a nation and continent. Africa shall never develop and Zimbabwe shall never progress as long as we celebrate being victims and glorify suffering and take pride in not being able to do anything about our social, political and economic conditions. No wonder we only recognize heroism when people are dead and honor human rights defenders when they are beaten or arrested and not for ongoing pro-active work of civic engagement and activism. I am in no way denigrating the courage of those who have been arrested, tortured and unjustly treated but am just challenging us to interrogate our perception of what a “hero” or human rights defender is.

Being a victim can be very disempowering because one feels they cannot do anything about the situation. Everything to the victim depends on the victimizer. The crisis in Zimbabwe has created a nation of victims who need to be healed and restored without which we will continue to wallow in self pity and harbor a strange desire for somebody, somewhere in SADC, AU or EU to miraculously save us. Victims always expect other people to do something about their situation and when nothing happens blame is heaped on “other people”. No wonder we as Zimbabweans expect SADC to somehow solve all our problems and “somebody in the international community to do something” about the Zimbabwean situation.

Renowned writer and speaker Steve Covey in his bestselling book “Seven Habits of Highly Effective People” argues that in order for one to be effective one has to concentrate on what he calls your circle of influence or those things that you can do something about. Covey contends that too many of us concentrate on our circle of concern [things that we worry about but can do nothing about]. By focusing our time and energy on what we can do our circle of influence is enlarged and we are able to influence many more things. When we concentrate on what we cannot do anything about we become mere victims as we become depressed by the enormity of the things we can do nothing about.

Civil society can borrow a leaf from this philosophy instead of focusing on unachievable goals which sap our energy. Surely we cannot be prisoners of our circumstances, we need a fundamental paradigm shift if we are to effectively transform our nation. The days of taking pride in being victims should come to an end as we take charge of our lives and the collective destinies of our communities. Far too many civic groups waste time, effort and resources reacting to actions of politicians instead of setting the agenda for politicians.

The cycle of victimism that has so engulfed us as Zimbabweans needs to be broken if we are to unlock our true value and potential. One of the tragedies of the victim mentality is that it not only blames the “perpetrator” for everything but abdicates responsibility laying everything at the feet of other people. In defeating the victim mode it is  important to understand how the victim has become the victim and in our Zimbabwean and African context it is imperative to unpack the socio –economic  superstructure and political apparatus that creates “victimhood” if there is such a word. The next step is then to introspect and understand the potential we have within ourselves of dealing with the predicaments that we face which entails marshalling our internal spiritual, intellectual and social energy. The Afrikaners emerged from brutal oppression of the British forces in the Boer –Anglo of the 1900’s to lead almost every aspect of South African life from business, sport, academics to politics. This is not to justify the evil system of Apartheid which was introduced by the Boer government of 1948 but as an object lesson to understand how people who were perceived and treated as a minority strategized themselves out of being victims to become masters of the nation.  In the 1940’s Hiroshima and Nagasaki were decimated by the Americans but within two decades Japan emerged as one of the leading economic powerhouses of the world. It is rare to hear the Japanese moaning and lamenting about what was done to them, instead they focused their energies on rebuilding their economy through a sound technological and scientific base. Half a century after colonialism we as Africans are still blaming colonialism for the state of Africa. Yes neo liberalism and neo colonialism are realities but what is important is to move from being perpetual victims to pro-active nations that take responsibility for our own actions and  resources and destiny .

The people of Egypt ,Tunisia ,Libya ,Bahrain ,Yemen ,Jordan have shown us that it is possible to free ourselves from the shackles of oppression through people power .They have demonstrated that indeed that ‘if change does not come from the top ,it will come from the bottom “.We may not necessarily go the route of these countries but at least they have demonstrated a resolve to chart their own destiny and rid themselves  of the tag of “perpetual victims “

Mayibuye iZimbabwe

Dumisani  is the chief executive officer of Habakkuk Trust and spokesperson of the Matabeleland Civil Society Consortium he writes here in his personal capacity .He can be contacted on email :dumisani .nkomo@gmail.com or Blog :www.dumisanionkomo.blogspot .com

YES I CAN

By Dumisani O.Nkomo

Yes I can ,even when I feel I can’t, I can because He can

Though I may not have a cent for rent

And each day is a chapter of sadness

He can open a chapter of gladness

I can because He can

When then is no relish for my sadza  or sadza for my relish,

Yes I can because I have never seen the righteous forsaken nor the godly begging for bread

Yes I can .though I am hard pressed on every side I am not crushed

Perplexed but not distressed

Struck down but not destroyed

Persecuted but not abandoned

Yes I can

In a nation where “ukujomba’is an institution and unemployment a profession

I can because He because He can supply all my needs according to His riches in Glory

Yes I can even when my dreams are shattered and my heart broken

He shall end my nightmares and mend my heart ,blessings He shall send

Yes He can carve a bright tomorrow from dark yesterdays

He can drill a pathway of hope through the hard rock of impossibility

I can because He can

Though darkness may linger a bit longer

I will not despair because joy comes in the morning

The darkest hour comes before   dawn

He has turned my mourning into dancing

Yes I can even when the past conspires with the present to overthrow my future

I can because He can

I can because I am designed to conquer ,fashioned to succeed

I will not be deterred by disappointment because I have a date with destiny

Victory is injected in my veins

I am intoxicated with faith

Saturated with the anointing

This faith unlocks the doors of the future

Yes I can face tomorrow

I cannot afford to a doubt because doubt is a rehearsal for failure

But joy is enjoying the future in advance

Yes I can because this  faith sees the unseen ,hears the unheard

This faith makes us tread on untrodden paths ,to chart new territories

Yes we can because He can

No mountain is too high to scale

No valley too steep to ascend from

No crater too deep for Him to descend to

Yes we can because He can build a new future from the fragments of our past

Yes I can because no weapon  fashioned against me will prosper

I can ,because He can do the impossible

I can because He is able to do what He said He would do

Yes I can because greater is He that is me than the one who is in the world

I can ,not because of what is around me but what is in me

Yes I can do all things through Christ Jesus who gives me strength

FROM TRANSITION TO TRANSFROMATION

Zimbabwe -From Transition To Transformation

By Dumisani O. Nkomo-Nqaba ka Mbekwana

Zimbabwe is currently in a process of political transition, epitomized by a power sharing government comprising of the country’s three major political parties .It is not yet clear how long this compromise government will be in place but the reality on the ground is that Zimbabweans have to go on with their lives and the nation has to metamorphose from transition to social ,economic and political transformation .Political transformation is the totality of the values ,systems ,structures ,culture ,behavior ,laws and policies that engender good governance ,respect for the rule of law and upholding of fundamental human rights .Political transformation in the African context and specifically in the Zimbabwean context would be useless if it does not give birth to socio-economic transformation which culminates in economic growth ,availability and access to basic services and goods .Such economic transformation would be premised on a strong productive base in the various sectors of the economy including mining ,agriculture and the manufacturing sector .This should ideally translate into  secure livelihoods and better quality of life for the people of Zimbabwe .How will Zimbabwe move from transition to transformation and what factors will contribute to social ,economic and political transformation is the subject of this article which is by no means exhaustive but rather discursive ,generic and conceptual .

Good Governance

Political transformation cannot take place outside of the absence of policies, institutions and a culture that promotes good governance at national, local and institutional level. Zimbabwe is in the mess that it is in because we have failed to run our country properly, we have failed to run our economy properly and we have failed to manage our people properly .In order for Zimbabwe to move towards good governance we need a broad shopping basket of measures ,actions ,attitudes and institutions to be in place .First and foremost we need a good constitution that will clearly and properly define the relationship of the state with it’s citizens thus providing an enabling framework for citizens to exercise their rights and participate in decision making whilst defining the powers of the state at various levels ,state obligations ,responsibilities ,duties and prerogatives .The current constitution creates a super state with a president with super ‘powers’ thus reducing citizens to later day serfs who at best are mere hewers of wood and drawers of water in a glorified fiefdom .The constitution making process is thus an important step towards transformation but we should not fool ourselves into thinking that once we have a good constitution everything will fall into place and we will live happily ever after in democratic tranquility in Cinderella fashion .There are other factors other than a good constitution which need to be place in order for good governance to prevail .This includes the development of a new political culture which respects democratic practice including citizen participation in decision making ,a culture of transparency and the respect of individual and collective rights as well as ingrained democratic values .It is interesting that the British have no written  constitution but they are still able to respect fundamental liberties .

Good governance will provide a conducive environment for economic stability and growth as envisaged in the government’s economic blueprints.

Capable and Functioning Government

Ø  In order to move from transition to transformation we need a government that has the capacity to govern and to deliver .The past fifteen years have seen the gradual collapse of state institutions culminating in lack of proper policy formulation and implementation ,deterioration of service delivery and the creation of a prohibitive environment for business to take place .We would need a government with the necessary human ,technical and financial capital to competently manage the country and move it to new heights .Up to 2008, the ZANU PF led government was unable and seemingly unwilling to move the country forward as evidenced by lack of a coherent shared national vision and consistent policy making .Government has also not been able to deliver because of massive skills flight to other sectors and other countries resulting in technical deficiencies at all levels of state governance .Under capitalization of government departments and utilities has also resulted in an underperforming and in fact non performing government .It would thus be necessary to address lack of capacity to deliver in government by :

Ø  Enhancing government’s ability to formulate and implement policy.

Ø  Building the government‘s capacity to revive and evaluate policy formulation.

Ø  Strengthening its technical and human resource base.

Ø  Sufficiently capitalizing government to carry out the functions of government .This would entail broadening its revenue collection base, leveraging investor /donor funding and unlocking the commercial value of Zimbabwe’s vast mineral wealth e.g. Chiadzwa diamonds which are not currently sufficiently contributing to the fiscus .

Strong Democratic Institutions

In order for democracy to thrive it needs the support of strong pillars of governance in the form of strong democratic institutions .These democratic institutions include independent commissions accountable to parliament i.e. media ,human rights ,anti corruption and Justice and Truth Commissions .Beyond statutory institutions, Zimbabwe needs a strong civil society movement that will enable citizens to participate meaningfully in decision making in an organized and informed manner .There is need for democratic institutions that will hold the government of the day to account and help it to formulate an agenda of transformation .The growth of trade unions, consumer groups unions ,farmers associations, business associations ,professional unions ,church groups and various interest groups  would be an important aspect of building strong democratic institutions that can act as a buffer against state excesses, unfettered market forces and social injustices .

A Sound Political Culture

Zimbabwe is in need of a brand of leaders that will have an appreciation of democratic values and the imperatives of good governance at a personal level .Transfer of power from ZANU PF to MDC may be pointless if M.D.C embraces the same political culture as ZANU P.F .We need to move away from a culture of impunity ,exclusivity ,corruption ,self aggrandizement ,top down “serve me” ,chef leadership and the use of violence as a political tool .The development of such a culture is not a revolutionary phenomenon but rather an evolutionary one that would take time ,proper nurturing and maturing . It would require subjects such as civics to be introduced at primary school level and a commitment by political parties to minimum standards of democratic practice within their political parties.

Pro-active Visionary Leadership

The march towards transformation also demands leaders of substance ,vision and integrity .Zimbabwe is currently suffering from a deficit of credible leaders not because those leaders are not there but principally because these leaders are wrongly positioned and deployed .We have many politicians but few statesman ,many managers but  few corporate  leaders ,many wealth accumulators but few wealth creators ,many activist but  few thinkers , many dealers but  few proper business people ,many clerics with titles but few true shepherds and pastors .The country is blessed with many intellectuals but many of whom are functionally illiterate .We need political party leaders who will think beyond opposition politics and politics of blame .We also need civil society leaders whose existence is not justified by the ills of ZANU PF or whoever is ruling. We need civil society leaders who will not just describe the problems we have as a nation but also prescribe how we can solve our problems .In short I think we have too many followers who are leaders and too many leaders who are followers .

Zimbabwe desperately needs pro-active leaders who will not be caught in victim mode blaming all our failures on sanctions ,ZANU PF ,M.D.C ,the west or the weather .We need leaders who will take responsibility and chart the way forward .Leaders who will learn from the past not to live in it ,leaders who will be servants of the people not leaders who want to make people their servants .We need leaders of integrity who are true to their word ,true to their county ,their duties and calling .This country requires pro-active leaders who are locally effective and globally relevant.  There are too many political parties ,government departments , parastatals ,

businesses ,civil society organizations and local authorities that are led or rather misled by mediocre leaders who do not have an agenda for change and transformation .There is a great clarion call for capable leaders from all sectors of Zimbabwean society to emerge or to be allowed to emerge .The advent of this new breed of leaders should not threaten the old leaders  who may feel they are being challenged as  these are the people who will help bridge the gap between the past ,the present and the future .We need leaders who will inspire us with a vision of a new Zimbabwe not leaders who will dwell in the bitter memories of the past .Some of them recall their bitter battle against the colonialists ,some of them are their bitter battles against ZANU PF .Some now reject the emergence of capable emerging leaders because they did no “die for the country “.We do not only want to die for our country but to live for it and to make it live .The country cannot move towards transformation in the absence of visionary ,pro-active ,servant leaders with the interests of the people at heart .We need these leaders in politics ,business ,civil society ,local authorities ,churches and communities .The moment demands leaders, in the words of Ellen G .White, “who cannot be bought or sold ,leaders who will stand for what is right though the heavens fall”.

Production and Investor Confidence

The advent of the inclusive government has by design or default culminated in the availability of basic goods in the country’s supermarkets .Whilst this is a most welcome development it is not sustainable in the long run .There is need to revive the productive sectors of the economy as a consumer economy will not serve the best interests of the nation .However for this to happen we need a conducive environment for business to operate and for production to take place .Foreign direct investment is needed to capitalize industry ,the mining and agricultural sectors .This investment will not come as long as we have an unstable political environment which poses a threat to property rights and proper conduct of business .The first step in boosting investor confidence will be formulating investor friendly policies as investors are not Father Christmas institutions that give out gifts to deserving countries during the festive season .In order for the economy to generate confidence within itself and to external investors there is need for policy consistency and an enabling legislative framework .It will not help us for politicians to make policy pronouncements at rallies ,funerals  and weddings especially if such pronouncements are inconsistent with economic realities .It is such populism and grandstanding that has reduced us to basket case status, sending wrong signals to investors .We also need to promote genuine indigenous business people who have the potential to become engines of economic growth and avoid economic empowerment based on political patronage and reverse racism

Service Delivery

In the next five years we need a programme that will revive the capacity of central and local government to deliver services .This should begin with concerted efforts to devolve power from central government to provincial and local authorities .The second stage would be that of building the capacity of these authorities to deliver basic services such as clean water, electricity ,health and education to residents .There are sufficient resources at local level to fund service provision in partnership with development agencies and Non Governmental Organizations .

Sustainable Development

Those of us in N.G.Os have done a great job in providing relied development for the people of Zimbabwe .There is need to move away from the paradigm of giving people hand outs so that they can survive to a model that promotes secure and sustainable livelihoods .Current top down approaches in development work have resulted in a vast dependent population which has been unable to unlock the resources and potential at its disposal because of the familiar attitude of “the donor will do it for us” .Relief is synonymous with emergency situations not sustainable developmen and  it is time we started moving towards empowering communities to utilize the resources and potential which they have .

An Active Citizenry

In addition to strong leaders, Zimbabwe needs active citizens who will be able to participate in all levels of decision making and policy formulation. This is imperative in any participatory democracy. This will result in accountable governance and an improvement in the quality of service delivery by local authorities and statutory service providers .Zimbabwe needs citizens who will bring their leaders  to account and importantly who will critically examine the quality of policies and candidates that political parties have for offer .Quality citizen participation will result in quality representation in legislative chambers and ultimately good governance .It is, therefore, the role of civil society to provide space ,resources and capacity for citizens to effectively participate .This, in my opinion will assist in the cause of transformation. We have to come to a stage were we have citizens who can ask candidates at elections what they have to offer not where they come from or what tribe they belong to .Mayibuye iZimbabwe.

Dumisani O .Nkomo is an activist and the Chief Executive officer of Habakkuk Trust, a leading Christian advocacy organization.

Which Way Zimbabwe -OPTIONS AND ALTERNATIVES

Way Zimbabwe ?Elections –Options and Alternatives

By Dumisani O. Nkomo-Chief Executive Officer –Habakkuk Trust[he writes here in his personal capacity]

Zimbabwe is in a continual state of déjà vues as we seem to be moving in circles in as far as the political logjam is concerned what with the latest SADC debacle , the hullaballoo about elections and in the midst of that the disappearance of the constitution reform agenda from the political topography of the nation .

I would like to suggest that the season demands and requires leaders who  will look beyond narrow sectarian ,personal and party interests and put the country first .We should not allow our judgment to be eclipsed by the here and now especially the hype about elections which usually culminates in us sacrificing our values ,vision ,priorities and intimately inter woven with this, the interests of the people of Zimbabwe .I consistently maintain that the Global Agreement with it’s numerous flaws offers a reasonable roadmap for the country for at least the next three to four years of transition which I believe we needed for constitutional, legislative and institutional reform ,national healing ,economic stability and growth .

There is a feeling of helplessness and hopelessness about the inevitability of elections albeit in an overtly unfair and uneven political playing field epitomized by growing political tension ,the arrest of journalists ,an incomplete constitutional reform process and the proposed draconian legislation limiting public access to critical information .In the midst of this I would like to explore several options that could be considered by progressive Zimbabweans .They are not exhaustive or conclusive but are an invitation to a conversation about our nation offering  a framework of alternative pro active action .Come let us reason and think about these issues .

A Poll Boycott

Who says everybody has to dance to the tune of one person and one party by blindly participating in elections .One option would be to take the initiative from President Mugabe by boycotting elections unless minimal demands are met .This would have the effect of isolating ZANU P.F and its leader and to highlight the gravity of the political crisis to the international community .It would also delegitimize whatever government comes into place .Hopefully this stance would force  SADC to intervene before such an election  .However a poll boycott does have its downside .First of all Mugabe and ZANU PF could simply ignore the boycott and continue with business as usual as they did in the inconsequential one man  2008 presidential second round of elections .The action would only embarrass SADC and Mugabe but we all know that embarrassment may not be enough to stop ZANU PF as they have become insulated to it .Furthermore a boycott could take us back by another ten years as the next election would be in another 5 years .ZANU PF would unopposed and there would be no alternative representation .The gains made in the post 2008 period would be  reversed in one fell swoop as a partisan parliament would pass more repressive legislation .Investor confidence[what is left of it ] ill dwindle and there could be scaling up of “measures and sanctions  .The Chiadzwa diamonds could come in handy in propping up the regime although a ban of exports of the mineral is likely to be intensified .In the interests of the nation a poll  boycott would mean a lot of pain for the people of Zimbabwe in the short to medium term .

The objective of such an action would be to force the SADC ,A.U and the international community to push for comprehensive political and economic reforms .The poll boycott strategy would only work if understood in the context of strategic action and as a means to an end not an end itself .This option is thus possible but ineffective but would work as an act of political “melodrama “to gain leverage to negotiate for an even playing field .At best it would work as a threat and not something to be actually done .The opposition should count the cost before it engages in this act which could either be a sacrifice resulting in long term gain but conversely could be a form of advanced political suicide if not done properly .

Minimalist Approach  

There is a school of thought especially in sections of civil society that elections should only be held only if certain minimum demands are met .Such minimum demands are limited to election related issues such as the immediate political environment ,targetted legislative reform ,regional and international election observers and provision of constitutional mechanisms for transfer of power .This approach seems to be the most realistic but is based on a set of assumptions ,the most important  assumption is that these minimalist demands will be met .I seriously doubt that ZANU PF will agree to international observers as this will play into “the west is interfering propaganda ‘.Peripheral and window dressing reform will be made as is the case already with proposals that election results be announced within reasonable time .In countries such as Kenya and Tanzania incumbents have used this to claim early victories and have quickly sworn themselves in and sworn at their opponents .

Rainbow Alliance and Minimum Demands

The only sure way of wresting power from the incumbent in an election under the current conditions is for opposition parties to form a sort of rainbow coalition. They may not want to be called opposition parties but the realty is that in terms of power they are an opposition and ZANU P.F for now is controlling the unity government .This is however not the subject of this article but my argument is that these parties have to agree on an electoral pact under which they would back one candidate in the presidential elections .The only three  things that stand in the way of such an arrangement  are namely :inflated egos ,insatiable political appetites and ideological differences .It is pertinent and imperative for the leaders of M.D.C T ,M.D.C led by Mutambara ,ZAPU , Simba Makoni  and other progressive forces to  come together and form a loose coalition within the framework of an electoral pact which would enshrine  a formula for fielding candidates in various constituencies and importantly one candidate for the presidential elections .

Opposition party leaders should put aside their differences and put the national interest above partisan interests .Our leaders will have to put aside their political libidos and egos and immediately start working towards such al pact as a matter of the first capital urgency instead of wasting time castigating each other and grandstanding .

An analysis of political behavior in the last ten years shows that though this is the most desirable scenario ,

‘our winner take all ,nation gains nothing” attitude may be our biggest enemy .The two M.D.C factions were  on the verge of an agreement in the run up to the 2008 harmonized elections but  alas insanity and expediency prevailed over reason and the two parties contested against  each other and supported different candidates .Consequently unnecessary losses were recorded in places such as Mazoe South were the two M.D.C candidates posted a combined vote of 5,453 against ZANU P.F ‘s 4,109  but lost the seat to ZANU PF as a result of split .Realistically though some opposition parties do not seem to add any value to the electoral and democratic experience as displayed by some of the 13 parties that contested in the 2008 parliamentary elections .Moreprecision Muzadzi ’s Voice of the People Party showed little precision garnering 63 votes nation wide whilst the Zimbabwe Youth In Alliance garnered 7 votes .Obvioulsy alliances with such parties would not be politically cost effective but the strength of Dumiso Dabengwa’s ZAPU and the key role it could play in the transfer of power equation cannot be ignored ,neither can the value Of M.D.C ‘s M’s political talent  combined with the mass appeal of the M.D.C T and the charisma of Morgan Tsvangirai as well as the intelligence of Simba Makoni  .

The combined political weight of Morgan Tsvangirai /Tendai Biti ,Arthur Mutambara/Welshman Ncube ,Dumiso Dabengwa and Simba Makoni  will literally decimate ZANU PF any election even if the ruling party were to resort to violence .These leaders should realize the importance of running together not against each other in this important national race where the biggest winners will be the Zimbawean people .

In the 2008 [round I ]presidential race Morgan Tsvangirai’s garnered  1,1079,730  [approximately 47,9 % ]of the votes  against  Robert Mugabe’s 1,079,730 [43,2 % of the vote ]  with Simba Makoni [backed by M.D.C –M ] garnering 207,470 votes  around [8,3 %of the votes] . Simple arithmetic then infers that if M.D.C T ,M.D.C M  and the Mavambo Project had backed one candidate ,in that case Tsvangirai Zimbabwe ‘s political history and indeed future would have been different .Obviously these parties and their leaders differ on ideological grounds but when a house is on fire  the identity ,religion and political opinion of those trying to put out the fire ceases to be important .Interparty talks between the three parties is therefore critical  .Political maturity ,statesmanship and spiritual /moral intelligence should triumph over short termism, a creed  greed ,self seeking naked political ambition and narrow  interests Zimbabwe should come first .

This Alliance should then demand that elections be held in conformity with the SADC Guidelines and Principles on the Conduct of Democratic Elections  which espouse the creation of  a level electoral playing field .Observers from SADC and other countries should be in the country at least ninety days before the actual election day so that they can monitor the pre election environment which is usually fraught with violence and not the actual voting day only as this tends to be a  largely political ritual carried out to the satisfaction of those observing election day processes .It is unlikely that observers from the E.U will be accredited to observe .Whilst this may be desirable it may be impossible because of official paranoia and “devil behind every bush “philosophy held so dearly by ZANU PF .The voters roll needs to be updated and accessible ,the state media accessible to all political parties and repressive legislation reviewed

The Best Option

The best route remains the full implementation of the Global Political Agreement with emphasis on constitutional and institutional reform ,national healing not national dealing and economic stability and growth .Elections for now are  a short cut and could be a short cut to nowhere .We need  to script a new framework that provides for democratization of state institutions and processes as well as a conducive environment for investment and growth .Our pre occupation with elections could result in  negative imaging culminating in continued investor fatigue ,increased unemployment and decline in wages as a result of massive fall in capacity utilization in the industrial sector .After all what is most important to people right now is their  economic well being .

I know other argue that there are too many centres of power In the current government hence decision \\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\making is problematic but we have to view this as an evolutionary process not a once off revolution which may result in a change of actors but maintain the script .Efforts should continue to prove to SADC that unless the Zimbabwean crisis /stalemate is resolved it could have a dire consequence on the peace ,security and economic well being of the entire sub region especially South Africa which could face a fresh influx of immigrants from Zimbabwe thus causing unrest in the socie-economic and political architecture of the country as nationals lose jobs to foreigners thus heightening xenophobia  and political tension .

The roadmap provided by the G.P.A is shaky but ensures that we are not just preparing for a democratic election but rather democratic governance  characterized by democratic processes ,laws and  institutions

Dumisani can be contacted on dumisani.nkomo@gmail.com

TAMING THE ZANU PF MONSTER

Unmasking The Strengths and Weaknesses of ZANU P.F  -TAMING THE MONSTER

By Dumisani O. Nkomo

The tragedy of opposition politicians and civics in general is the fact that whilst there is widespread criticism of the shortcomings, ills and evils of ZANU PF there has been failure to critically analyze its structural strengths and weaknesses which have contributed to their continued gold on power  .An analysis of empirical evidence focused on the party’s election strategies as well as political behavior will assist in formulating effective measures of containing and defeating ZANU P.F .

Advantages of Incumbency-

The fact that ZANU P.F has been in control of vital state structures and organs for thirty years presents  it with huge advantages over the other political parties .The fact that in Zimbabwe the party and the state have been synonymous for a long time means that some key government structures at both central and local government levels have operated as quasi political structures serving the interests of ZANU P.F .

 Compact and Effective Structures

The constitutional outreach process proved that ZANU P.F structures were better organized than other political parties in spite of ZANU P.F‘s unpopularity. They were able to mobilize their supporters by any means necessary. They dominated most meetings held in the rural areas and gave a strong showing in the towns. Whilst I  do not in any way condone wayward ways of ZANU P.F it is critical to understand how ZANU P.F was able to dominate the constitution making process even though it did  not have the support of most progressive forces .The mobility of local ZANU P.F structures was clearly evident as they were able to bus their small groups of their supporters from venue to venue .Quite clearly they operated using tactics from the liberation struggle using small groups of cadres as advance parties and using terror and persuasion to win the hearts and minds of the rural populace .What is then likely to emerge is  ZANU P.F  dominated constitution .The constitution making process was used by ZANU P.F strategists to gauge the preparedness of its structures for elections and whilst everybody was busy with the constitution making agenda they were busy preparing for elections and now whilst everybody is blindly following the election agenda they are already thinking about post election power dynamics .To this end they are tactically and  technically superior to the other political parties

Strategy Formulation

ZANU P.F and Mugabe in particular have become masters of political stratagem .Opposition parties have since 1980 been forced to be constantly reacting to agendas set by ZANU P.F .Importantly after the government’s draft constitution was rejected by Zimbabweans in 2000 it looked like ZANU P.F was poised for a crushing defeat at the hands of the M.D.C But in a space of six months ZANU P.F changed the both the political discourse and direction of the nation through the chaotic land reform project which saw thousands of former farm workers being displaced and thousands of deserving people failing to receive land .New ZANU PF strongholds were created in resettlement areas and potential opposition strongholds were weakened  by deployment through resettlement .

 Current Election Strategy

Besides the usual tactic of violence ZANU P.F is already targeting various publics including Independent African Churches ,youths ,indigenous business persons , artistes and “farmers” .It appears ZANU P.F is a  diligent student of Machiavelli who counsels that at times force may not be necessary where persuasion or political fraud can work .

The youth have also been targetted through youth “friendly “methods such as music and dance with a number of young artistes pledging their support for Mugabe and ZANU P.F . The young artistes are being used as part of the ZANU P.F propaganda machinery in an attempt to woe those voters born after independence  or the “born frees” .This is a new strategy as ZANU P.F has always focused on it’s traditional rural support base in the Mashonaland ,parts of Masvingo,Midlands and Manicaland .

This youth strategy is also buttressed through structures of the Ministry of Youth which although purporting to be non partisan provides opportunities for party youths or those who choose to align with ZANU P.F to benefit from small loans to start micro enterprises .

 Indigenization campaign

The ZANU P.F  machinery has already strategically positioned itself beyond the debate on land to that of the extractive sector  and industry by dangling the indigenization carrot to thousands of struggling black entrepreneurs .In the same manner in which land was used as a tool of enticing the rural vote, “indigenization “which in itself is not bad if implemented properly is being used to gain inroads into emerging urban elites ,the middle class and young black businessmen

African Politics and Diplomacy

Whilst ZANU P.F is clearly out of favour with the European Union and the Americas it has managed to win the souls of Africa through arguments on sovereignty and anti neo colonial rhetoric .They [ZANU P.F ]seem to have a far better understanding of how African politics and diplomacy works and have managed to skillfully and   deceitfully evade scrutiny from numerous SADC summits. Due to the weaknesses of opposition parties at international level ZANU PF has managed to run rings around their opponents and blocked any meaningful interventions from SADC as a the most critical player in the Zimbabwean transitional process .The proposed SADC roadmap to free elections may fall victim to ZANUP.F shenanigans and chicanery

Traditional Structures

ZANU PF has always and will continue to use or abuse traditional structures as a tool of political coercion in plebiscites and this is already evident in that contrary to the Traditional Leaders Act some chiefs have openly declared their support for the incumbent and ZANU P.F .Strategically traditional leadership structures filter to village level and serve as a useful appendages of ZANU P.F party structures come election time .

 Summation of  Strengths

The above strategies which are a combination of force ,fraud ,coercion  and persuasion are already being used to target different “electorates divided into divergent interests .Interestingly ZANU P.F is no longer just interested in consolidating its traditional support base but is actively engaging and enticing new target groups such as organized business ,urban youths ,churches and academics .Where coercion fails violence will be used but in a tactical and targetted manner .In Matabeland which is crucial to attaining an electoral majority ZANU P.F will make a spirited attempt to win one seat in Bulawayo ,four in Matabeleland South and two seats in Matabeleland North .They will pray for apathy in the elections so that their loyal supporters vote in their numbers and hope that the opposition vote in Matabeland is split between ZAPU and the two M.D.C ‘S .They will also hope that the opposition presidential vote will be split between two even three aspirants just Simba Makoni’s slice of the vote which was just above six percent made a great difference in deciding the course of the electoral contest .

Weaknesses/Deficiencies

The factors that militate against ZANUP.F ‘s electoral success are numerous and do not need the ingenuity of a political scientist .

The Credibility Deficit

ZANU P.F is associated [and rightly so ]with the collapse of the economy ,corruption ,chaos ,anarchy ,poverty ,deterioration of service delivery and mass poverty. The electorate believes that ZANU P.F has failed for the last thirty years an nothing short of miracle will make them win elections fairly

ZANU P.F Is A Losing Brand

Closely tied to this is the undeniable fact that ZANU P.F is a losing brand and for many especially young people it has no place in the future .It is associated with all manner of failure and as such people do not want to associate with failure .Sovereignty ,loyalty and patriotism  will not pay people ‘s rent ,give them bread or jobs .

Diminishing Influence of State Media

ZANU P.F ‘S of the state media for propaganda purposes will fail because of the emergence of alternative media in the form of Satellite T.V and short wave radio as well as independent print media .Even in rural areas few people now listen or watch  Z.B.C .A lot of resources may thus be wasted on flogging  a “dead donkey “

Reverse Propaganda

ZANU P.F’s propaganda machinery may achieve results contrary to their expectations as people will believe the opposite of whatever the state media is saying .The government’s vote yes campaign of2000 is an example of how people voted no because of what they perceived to a ploy to hoodwink  them through the .The electorate is in the mode of supporting whoever is the victim and is likely to disbelieve whatever is said against opposition parties .

Immunity to Violence

It is debatable whether violence will actually translate to more votes for ZANU P.F as people adapt and react to it  Even though this was generally true of elections held in June 2008 this may not be necessarily so as was proved in 1985 when ZANU P.F was comprehensively defeated by P.F ZAPU in Matabeleland after the state sanctioned Gukurahundi massacres .Ultimately people may choose to attend ZANU P.F meetings ,eat the food they are given ,chant party slogans but in the ballot booth the secrecy of the vote will reign supreme .

Dumisani Nkomo is the Chief Executive Officer of Habakkuk Trust and Principal Spokesperson of the Matabeleland Civil Society Consortium-he writes here in his personal capacity

IS ZAPU RELEVANT TO ELECTORAL POLITICS CURRENTLY

IS THE REVIVED ZAPU RELEVANT TO ZIMBABWEAN ELECTORAL POLITICS?

By Dumisani O. Nkomo

The revival of ZAPU has aroused a lot of interest in diplomatic circles ,regionally and internationally, especially with Zimbabweans in the Diaspora who originated form Matabeleland. The big question is whether ZAPU  will have a significant impact if any at all on the country’s electoral landscape especially the rocky political terrain of Matabeleland which has become handy in deciding electoral outcomes. The M.D.C led by Professor Ncube has a huge say in the inclusive government because of the seats it garnered in Matabeleland. Will the emergence of this oxymoronically ‘new’ but old party upstage the MD.C-T vote in Matabeleland or will the party obliterate the M.D.C (Ncube) from the political scene? Is ZAPU just a noisy, nostalgic blast from the past or a formidable political formation that will play a critical role in the transfer of power equation?

Critics and cynics argue that ZAPU is an extension of ZANU P.F and some conspiracy enthusiasts opine that the party is an extension of the Mujuru faction in ZANU PF. Others feel that the party offers a refreshing alternative to the M.D.C formations and ZANU P.F. First and foremost I would like to concur with other political analysts that the emergence of ZAPU is good for democracy especially in this transitional period when there is no robust opposition party to hold the G.P. A partners to account. Secondly I would also like to dismiss those who say ZAPU is a tribal formation merely because it was started or is it restarted in Matabeleland. The notion that anything that starts in Matabeleland is tribal merely because it originates from there should be dismissed with the contempt that it deserves. The reality on the ground however is that ethnicity continues to play a major part in the politics of the country.

IS ZAPU ZANU?

The biggest challenge facing ZAPU is to prove that it is not an extension of ZANU PF or a ZANU PF project. People want political formations and leaders that they can trust and trust is gained over a long period of time. Some senior ZAPU leaders were key figures in ZANU PF and a number of them were fingered in political violence perpetrated by ZANU PF between 2000 to 2008. This is regardless of the fact that many of them were victims of the Gukurahundi massacres who were converted to ZANUISM and became the prophets and high priests of the ZANU order or is it disorder, in the process sacrificing the freedom of their countrymen at the altar of political expedience.

The belief that ZAPU is ZANU in disguise has been unfortunately enforced by the party’s thrust of seeming to be more against M.D.C rather than ZANU PF. This is not to say that the M.D.C formations are paragons of virtue from whom all good things emanate but to many people the M.D.C appears to be the only political movement capable of removing ZANU PF. Whether or not they have the slightest clue how to govern the country once they have wrested it from ZANU PF is the subject of another article altogether.

There are also a sizable number of people who rightly or wrongly believe that ZAPU is an extension of the Mujuru faction in ZANU PF. Though the authenticity of this belief is dubious it is however a real perception that is held by many which ZAPU will have to deal with if it entertains any chances of surviving Zimbabwe’s rocky political terrain. Issues of perception and trust play a major role in politics and the sooner Zimbabwean opposition parties understand this the better they will perform.

The Second challenge that the party faces is that of showing that it is a party of the present and the future because Zimbabweans are tired of liberation movements which have no relevance to their post independence aspirations and the democratic dispensation that we all yearn for so much. The party will have to prove that it has a vision and programme for the future and it is not a Matabeleland version of ZANU PF couched in the glorious history of the past.

A big bonus for the party is that it enjoys a huge following in South Africa and it is a known fact that Zimbabweans in South Africa have a huge influence on the political opinions of people in Matobo, Mangwe, Bulilima, Beitbridge, Gwanda, Tsholotsho and Insiza. It remains to be seen whether this can translate to electoral success in Matabeleland. Zimbabwe’s economic dynamics are such that ‘injivas’ are no longer able to come home as often as possible and many are now unable to support families back home. This implies diminished influence from the Zimbabwean community in South Africa as a result of these new dynamics.

Critically however ZAPU could prey on the weaknesses of the two M.D.C factions to launch a massive political counter attack in Matabeleland. The big question is whether ZAPU will split the votes of the MDC formations or the ZANU P.F vote as it is unlikely to attract a considerable mass of ‘new’ voters in the event of an election. ZAPU has apparently shown that it can also throw a few punches here and there and a few of their cadres have been involved in efforts to resist land invasions. There are some who may be impressed by this apparent ability to stand up against ZANU PF brutality.

It is also likely that ZAPU will dislodge ZANU Pf from some of its strongholds in Matabeleland. The party also has the support of a number of former military leaders as well as a few serving soldiers which could make the party strategic in event of the need of transfer of power. M.D.C is currently unable to unlock the logjam of transfer of power even if it wins convincingly in an election.

South Africa and a few other Southern African statesman may be more comfortable with a ‘former liberation movement’ having political power than  post independent labour based political formations and would rather endorse the so called liberation movements.

The following factors heavily militate against ZAPU though:

1. Lack of a charismatic leader who is able to match Mugabe or Tsvangirai.

2. Lack of national appeal even though they have leaders from all over the country in the national executive. The reality of tribal politics could cause their pre-mature demise.

3. The relative inexperience of the current leadership. Most of the top leadership of ZAPU is relatively unknown and at least two of its top leaders have been resident outside Zimbabwe for a long time. The dexterities, complexities and gymnastics of Zimbabwean politics could be too much for them.

4. Their perception that they are a party of the past and not the future.

5. The perception that ZAPU is ZANU project.

6. People are looking for a movement that has the capacity of removing ZANU PF and they may weigh their options and opt for M.D.C-T.

The resurgence of the M.D.C under Welshman Ncube has taken the rug off the feet of ZAPU and has taken the momentum from the party. ZAPU appears to be hopelessly disconnected with the broader democracy movement and agenda in Zimbabwe.

For the above reasons I believe that though the emergence of ZAPU is healthy for democracy the party is unlikely to make a significant impact on the political landscape. If the party deals with these factors then the M.D.C formations could be in for a ‘rude awakening’ as ZAPU could spring a surprise in Matabeleland and parts of the Midlands. What is definite though is that ZAPU may ransack the little that is left of ZANU PF support in Matabeleland. They could also target the ‘silent’ electorate that did not vote for ZANU PF or the M.D.C formations and these constitute well over sixty percent of voters. If ZAPU does not reinvent and redesign itself with pro-active, visionary leadership and planning coupled with strategic political thinking and positioning the party might as well be a political dinosaur destined to return to the dark caves of political oblivion. We do not need another liberation movement that will take us back to the past; we need a robust opposition party founded upon the tenets of democracy and social transformation.

An electoral alliance with M.D.C led by Ncube would be prudent for ZAPU but a broader electoral alliance with the M.D.C formations still remains the best option for now.

(Dumisani Nkomo is the Chief Executive Officer of Habakkuk Trust and the spokesman of the Matabeleland Civil Society Consortium. Here he writes in his personal capacity. He can be contacted on dumisani.nkomo@gmail.com)