Where to Zimbabwe? Challenges Facing E.D
By Dumisani O. Nkomo
The elections have come and gone
so has the Constitutional Court process of dealing with the disputed election
outcome. What is imperative now is how the nation moves forward. The key
players in this unfolding drama need to clearly map a way forward and avoid
being stuck in a moment of history or a moment of madness. To this end, a
number of challenges await the President Emmerson Mnangagwa.
Challenges Mnangagwa Faces
Legitimacy
The elections were an important
legitimation process for the military establishment which ousted Robert Mugabe
in the November 2017 coup de tat. Without winning the support of the people
through the most recognizable test of democracy which is an election, the
Mnangagwa regime suffered a critical legitimacy crisis. The election was thus a
critical political ritual to baptise the regime into democratic sainthood. The
results were contested by Nelson Chamisa and the M.D.C Alliance but he failed
to win the case in the Constitutional Court. Even though Mnangagwa ultimately emerged unscathed
in the Concourt and was declared the winner; he mainly attained legal
legitimacy but continues to suffer from a deficit of political and moral legitimacy.
The electoral process and the Concourt process managed to cleanse the regime
but fell short in terms of broader public perception and confidence. The
majority of urbanites for example who voted for Chamisa still feel the elections
were stolen and thus eroding the moral and political legitimacy of Mnangagwa.
The best remedy to deal with this would have been an inclusive government.
However, in the face of an ostensive ZANU P.F with the majority in parliament
and the destructive winner take all mentality in the ruling party and the
radical stance of Chamisa, this appears unlikely. Mnangagwa thus has the
unenviable task of governing a country where the majority of people who
contribute to the fiscus through taxes, various levies, rates and economic
activities are from urban areas and did not vote for him. The erosion of Mnangagwa’s
political and moral legitimacy is not just philosophical but may translate into
a lack of confidence into economic governance processes further translating
into lack of confidence in official processes and institutions. This may result
in short term thinking and short termism in financial practises which may
affect sectors such as the banking sector which may suffer from depositors burn
out. This can culminate in a decrease in savings, investment and deposits with
potential catastrophic impact on the economy. Remittances from the Diaspora may
also be eroded by lack of trust in the government and its economic processes.
Credibility of Democratic Institutions
Secondly, Mnangagwa has to deal
with a public with decreased confidence in independent institutions which
undergird or support and entrench democracy. The credibility of the Zimbabwe Electoral
Commission for example alongside other Chapter 12 institutions will be severely
affected as a result of the contested election. Whether or not there was
sufficient evidence to prove that there was rigging or no rigging; there is
prevailing and prevalent public opinion that public institutions such as Z.E.C
cannot be trusted. There will also be increasing mistrust in the independence
of the judiciary. Whilst the judgement of the Constitutional Court must be
respected and upheld, its ruling will undoubtedly raise question marks on the
independence of the judiciary. This erosion of confidence is largely as a result
of speculative reality rather than substantive reality as people will then perceive
the courts as not being independent and credible. Whether this is right or
justified or not is another question altogether. There will be a domino effect on
other independent institutions including Chapter 12 institutions such as the Zimbabwe
Human Rights Commission, the Zimbabwe Media Commission and importantly the
National Peace and Reconciliation Commission. Public confidence in these
institutions as instruments of democratization will be severely tested in the
next five to ten years.
Confidence
The bigger challenge that the
government faces is that of instilling public confidence in itself and
government processes. The fact that Mnangagwa suffered rejection even from his
own party epitomized by ruling party parliamentary candidates scoring higher
votes than himself portrays a deeper crisis of confidence which may manifest
itself in parliament and in policy making processes. It is within speculative
reality to opine or conclude that there may be a substantial number of Members of
Parliament who may either be loyal to Mugabe or other powerful individuals
other than Mnangagwa himself. This may lead to multiple centres of power within
government thus affecting policy implementation and inevitably service delivery,
political and economic stability. This chasm has also been evident in the
security forces where it has become obvious that sectors such as the police and
intelligence apparatus are not fully loyal to the incumbent. The cocktail of all these issues severely erodes
internal and external confidence in Mnangagwa and his team. The composition of
his cabinet is the first test of his commitment to change and the economic development
agenda.
Its game on for Mnangagwa but he
faces a multiplicity of challenges which will test his resolve. The Zimbabwe is
open for business thrust of the government faces immense challenges in the wake
of a crisis of internal and external confidence.
Dumisani O. Nkomo writes in his
personal capacity.
