Dumisani O Nkomo

Thursday, 30 May 2019

Dumisani O Nkomo: Dabengwa An international Hero

Dumisani O Nkomo: Dabengwa An international Hero: Dabengwa Not Just A Zimbabwean Hero By Dumisani O Nkomo In the tradition of great revolutionaries such Che Guevera Dumiso Dabengwa’s h...

Dabengwa An international Hero

Dabengwa Not Just A Zimbabwean Hero

By Dumisani O Nkomo

In the tradition of great revolutionaries such Che Guevera Dumiso Dabengwa’s heroism cannot be limited to his exploits in Zimbabwe during the war of liberation. It must be placed on record that Dumiso Dabengwa not only contributed to the liberation of Zimbabwe but in an incalculable way and magnitude to the liberation of South Africa . He was trained in the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics in 1963, operated in Botswana carrying out covert missions and regularly moved across countries such as Zambia and Tanzania . Operations of the Zimbabwe People’s Revolutionary Army [ZIPRA] stretched to training and camps in Cuba. Libya , Yugoslavia , Egypt , Algeria and Angola . Dabengwa was the head of ZIPRA’s intelligence arm the National Security Organization which had networks in various countries.

Importantly Dabengwa must not be celebrated in Matabeleland alone or Zimbabwe alone because he was a key figure in the Wankie Campaign carried out jointly by ZAPU and South Africa’s Umkhonto we Sizwe . Dabengwa brushed shoulders with the likes of Joe Modise and Chris Hani of the A.N.C as ZAPU and the A.N.C executed the Battle of Wankie . Umkhonto We Sizwe and ZAPU guerrillas fought side by side as comrades and Dabengwa coordinated deployment and intelligence of both Umkhonto and Zipra guerrillas . Dabengwa the pan African hero also played a key part in the 1968 Sipholilo campaign led by Moffat Hadebe where Zapu and Umkhonto carried out joint operations.

As testimony to this one former ZIPRA guerrilla Marshall Mpofu a former Colonel in the army testified that when he joined in the armed struggle in 1973 he together with six other ZAPU and ANC cadres were recruited by Dumiso Dabengwa in Bostwana . The link between ZAPU and Unkhonto continued beyond independence .With the active support of ZAPU and the likes of Dabengwa large quantities of weapons destined for the armed struggle in South Africa and Umkhonto we Sizwe were kept at farms owned by ZAPU just after independence . This was verified by Dr Dabengwa in public lectures in South Africa and former N.S.O intelligence operative Jeremy Brick hill at a Lookout Masuku Memorial lecture . The weapons which Lookout Masuku and Dumiso Dabengwa were arrested for were actually Umkhonto weSizwe weapons . For this Dabengwa and Masuku were charged with treason for attempting to subvert and overthrow the Zimbabwean government [ does this not sound familiar ]. After being acquitted by the courts Dabengwa was continuously jailed for over six more years unconstitutionally and illegally by the ZANU P.F government. For this it must be clear to all and sundry that Dabengwa was a hero not just for Zimbabwe but also for South Africa. Not only did he fight side by side with M.K guerrillas, but he helped to deploy, provide intelligence and later on provided a conduit for Umkhonto we Sizwe guerrillas in South Africa .

This history has been supressed by ZANUcentriic historians and academics. It must be remembered that at the time ZANU ‘s ally was the Robert Sobukwe founded Pan Africanist Congress and not the A.N.C .This is why Dabengwa was widely respected by former M.K guerrillas at a very level .Sadly the average South African and indeed Zimbabwean does not know that Zimbabwean blood was spilt for South Africa and South African blood for Zimbabwe . It is largely unknown that Dabengwa lost many years of freedom after independence at the hands of a black government because he and ZAPU had dared to help liberate South Africa by ensuring that Umkhonto we Sizwe continuously had supplies of weapons .

Dr Dumiso Dabengwa who died today aged [79] was indeed a great and illustrious son of the soil. His involvement with the struggle for independence dates back to the days when he was part of the youth wing of the National Democratic Party which was headed by Joshua Nkomo in the late fifties. He continued being an active youth after N.D.P was formed and the Zimbabwe African People’s Union was formed. As part of the youth wing he was part of militant youths who engaged in many protests and demonstrations against white minority rule.

He was one of the first cadres of ZAPU to be sent for military training in the Soviet Union. The presence of leading A.N.C cadres at the Launch of the Dumiso Dabengwa Foundation in 2018 is testimony of the impact that Dumiso Dabengwa had not only had impact on the liberation struggle in Zimbabwe but also the liberation of South Africa.

Dabengwa had risen through the ranks to become a key cog in the intelligence unit of ZAPU. He became the secretary of ZAPU‘s War Council headed by Jason Ziyaphapha Moyo which was responsible for prosecuting the armed struggle. He was also the secretary of the War Council which was headed by party president Joshua Nkomo and included Nikita Mangena, Samuel Munodawafa (the party chairman) amongst others.

Importantly Dabengwa was part of the Patriotic Front delegation to the Geneva talks in 1976 and the Lancaster House talks in 1979. He thus had an illustrious history not only as a soldier and intelligence supremo but also a political stalwart with diplomatic acumen and shrewd strategic planning. This is the reason why Nkomo and the ZAPU leadership included him in key talks which involved liberation movements, the Rhodesian governments and foreign governments.

It is believed he had a strong rapport with ZANLA supremo Josiah Tongogara at this time. Tongogara was killed tragically in mysterious circumstances in the build up to the independence.

In 1980, Dabengwa played a key part in ensuring guerrillas returned to assembly points and subsequently in the integration of ZIPRA and ZANLA forces into the Zimbabwe National Army together with former Rhodesian forces. The team that led the integration included General Peter Walls former commander of Rhodesian army, Lookout Masuku and Rex Nhongo (Solomon Mujuru). This was Dabengwa the soldier and statesman at work now using years of training in the Soviet Union, military experience and intelligence acumen as head of the National Security organization which was he wartime ZAPU intelligence wing.

He displayed these attributes again when fighting broke out between ZIPRA and ZANLA guerrillas domiciled in Entumbane and parts of Harare. He and Masuku in the company of Nkomo appealed to ZIPRA forces to put down their arms and cease fighting. This was in realization that there would be far more civilian casualties than military casualties as the fighting was taking place in the townships. This was once again vintage Dabengwa as a statesman, peacemaker and politician par excellence. Were it not for these actions possibly millions of civilians would have been killed in the fighting which was focussed on Bulawayo and other areas.

It is said that Dabengwa had been offered the post of Major General but he was reluctant to take this up and left his uniform in a huff as he was the most senior soldier at independence having led the likes of Rex Nhongo and others who were now touted as his superiors. He then retired from active service after stopping two armed conflicts and united two warring armies.

charged with treason but subsequently the courts acquitted them. The government of Prime Minister Robert Mugabe continued to detain them and the two remained in jail with Masuku being released in 1986 only to die shortly afterwards. The government of Robert Mugabe refused to allow Dumiso Dabengwa to attend the funeral of his comrade and colleague.

During this time the ZANU government brutally butchered over 25 000 people, tortured and beat thousands more and displaced hundreds of thousands of people during the Gukurahundi Genocide. ZAPU and Nkomo were keen to stop the killing and acceded to talks with ZANU. Dumiso Dabengwa together with Sydney Malunga and Nkomo’s young brother Steven were vehemently opposed to the talks. Nkomo appealed to Dabengwa saying “what do you want us to do about the thousands of people that are being butchered by ZANU, do you have an alternative…, go and think about it”

A day afterwards Dabengwa returned to Nkomo and gave the nod for the negotiations to be concluded in order to stop the butchering of civilians.

Dabengwa after initially rejected repeated offers first served as Deputy Minister of Home Affairs and then Minister of Home Affairs. He then quit ZANU P.F to revive ZAPU.

In his last years Dabengwa was keen for the Zambezi Water Project to be included in order for hundreds of thousands of people in Matabeleland to benefit from downstream and upstream economic activities. During the tenure of the Unity government Dabengwa summoned this writer to his offices at the Zambezi Water Project Trust and Said “Dumisani “my dream is about to come true. Minister Siphepha tells me they have secured funding for the project. For me, it is not important what it is called or who gets the glory as long as our people benefit. Sadly, the project is still at its infancy since government reneged on its promises and diverted funds to other projects and the so called deal with the Chinese amounted to nothing. Dabengwa had set up the Matabeleland Zambezi Water Trustto spearhead the project. He had developed a model for the project to be funded through a joint venture initiative. He proposed that the government give the trust concessions to mine methane gas in Lupane. The government flatly refused. It was Dabengwa’s wish to see the project through. He also desired to see the country’s history to be re written in order to reflect the contributions of ZIPRA and ZAPU. In order to perpetuate his legacy, he pro-actively set up the Dumiso Dabengwa Foundation.

His contributions to the people of Zimbabwe were indeed immense but it would be a travesty of justice for him to be remembered as a Zimbabwean hero only because he was more than that . He fought alongside comrades from South Africa’s Umkhonto weSizwe and contributed to the independence of South Africa . Today millions of Dabengwas countrymen are treated like scavengers in countries were Dabengwa played a key role in the liberation of those countries He must be honoured not just in Zimbabwe but also in South Africa as well . Many who enjoy independence in both countries owe it to the likes of Dumiso Dabengwa together with John Dube the commander of the Wankie Campaign , Joe Modise and Chris Hani .

Amandla !

Dumisani Nkomo is the CEO of Habakkuk Trust

Dabengwa The African Hero

Dabengwa Not Just A Zimbabwean Hero

By Dumisani O Nkomo

It is believed he had a strong rapport with ZANLA supremo Josiah Tongogara at this time. Tongogara was killed tragically in mysterious circumstances in the build up to the independence.

A day afterwards Dabengwa returned to Nkomo and gave the nod for the negotiations to be concluded in order to stop the butchering of civilians.

Dabengwa after initially rejected repeated offers first served as Deputy Minister of Home Affairs and then Minister of Home Affairs. He then quit ZANU P.F to revive ZAPU.

Amandla !

Dumisani Nkomo is the CEO of Habakkuk Trust

How Dabengwa Can Be Honoured Practically

Practical Ways In Which Dumiso Dabengwa Must Be Honoured

By Dumisani O Nkomo

Much has been said about the life and incredible heroism of former ZAPU intelligence supremo Dr Dumiso Dabengwa who died last week. Indeed, his heroic acts dating back to his days as a militant youth with the National Democratic Party to the battle of Wankie with the Luthuli Detachment. The key now is, how he will be honoured going forward and I would like to suggest several practical ways in which he can be honoured and this revolves around issues which where dear to him.

1.Return of ZIPRA / ZAPU Properties

In order to pro-actively enable ex combatants to be reintegrated into society without being a burden ZAPU / ZPRA mooted the idea of individual combatants contributing $50 each from their demobilization money. This money was used to procure numerous properties including farms, buildings and resorts such as Castel Arms. A company called NITRAM was created to be the business vehicle for the ex-combatants in what was extremely visionary planning. Properties such as Magnet House, were some of the buildings which were procured as it was recognized that the real estate portfolio was key in unlocking financial returns in the long term. The building is now occupied by the Central Intelligence Organization. Significantly when the government discovered arms caches in ZAPU farms such as Ascot Farm: all NITRAM properties were confiscated. These weapons had apparently mainly been earmarked for the A.N.C’s armed wing Umkhonto We Sizwe. This was the first case of violation of property rights in post independent Zimbabwe as all the properties were ruthlessly seized. In order to honour Dabengwa, these properties must be returned to their rightful owners the ZPRA vets. This is a non-negotiable issue which must be addressed urgently and later day. There must be a roadmap detailing when and how these properties will be returned. Although a lot of these properties are run down, they will go a long way in ensuring that genuine ex-combatants were entitled to benefit as well as their families.

2.Implementation of Zambezi Water Trust

This project was in Dabengwa’s heart until his very last days. His vision was developmental in these last five to ten years and he yearned for this project to be implemented so that hundreds of thousands of jobs could be created in a 60 km greenbelt with upstream and down-stream agro–industrial activities and finally water for Bulawayo which suffers perennial water shortages. He had formed the Matabeleland Zambezi Water Trust (MZWT) to pursue this dream and developed viable business models to ensure that it was well funded. The Trust applied for mining concessions in Lupane to facilitate self-funding for the Zambezi project but this was shot down by senior government officials. If the government is serious about honouring Dabengwa, it must ensure this project is implemented and there is a timeframe to complete it. The project is listed in the Matrix which government developed in response to fearless advocacy from the Matabeleland Collective. There must be a clear roadmap including the granting of concessions to the MZWT and completion of the Gwai Shangani Dam in the next 12 months. The national budget must set aside funds for this project.

3.Implementation of Devolution of Power

Devolution of power is something which Dr Dabengwa vehemently believed in and in order to honour him this project must be implemented immediately. There has been enough talking and “pie in the sky talk” about devolution but what remains is action so the enabling legislation to effect devolution must be put in place as a matter of the utmost urgency in consultation with civil society and other stakeholders.

4. REWRITING THE COUNTRY’S HISTORY

The country’s history is fatally flawed and erroneously excludes the contribution of ZAPU and ZPRA in the liberation struggle. The first guns to be brought into Zimbabwe were smuggled into the country in 1962 after talks between Joshua Nkomo and Abdul Naser the then Egyptian President. Once in the then Rhodesia, the young Bobylock Manyonga, was unfortunately found in possession of dangerous weapons and the ZAPU efforts foiled but the first weapons came into the country in 1962 and this is not recorded in the country’s history in an accurate manner. The first militants to escape from Grey Prison were Moffat Hadebe, Clarke Mpofu and two other cadres, yet this incredible prison break remains unknown and undocumented. The exploits of the John Dube led Luthuli detachment are not adequately captured neither is the Sipholilo campaign led by Moffat Hadebe. The A.N.C / ZAPU alliance is not fully captured in the annuls of Zimbabwean history neither is the contribution of ZAPU, ZPRA stalwarts.

5.Adressing Gukurahundi

The Gukurahundi Genocide must be addressed holistically and comprehensively with a victim led approach being the epi centre of the process and truth recovery and restorative justice being cardinal to the process.

Lastly, the City of Bulawayo must post humously award Freedom of the City to Dabengwa and name a street after him together with Lookout Masuku, Nikita Mangena, Akim Ndlovu and Moffat Hadebe [he is still alive]. ZAPU heroes such as Sydney Malunga, Lazarus Nkala, Vote Moyo, Njini Ntuta, Edward Ndlovu, Steven Nkomo, Sikwili Moyo, Albert Nxele and others must be honoured as well.

Dumisani O Nkomo

NKOMO is the Chief Executive Office Officer of Habakkuk Trust

He Writes here in his personal capacity

Wednesday, 22 May 2019

DO ELECTIONS WORK IN ZIMBABWE

Do Elections Work In Zimbabwe ?-The Script Remains the Same

By Dumisani O. Nkomo

This article seeks to explore the efficacy of elections as a tool of democratic governance in Zimbabwe since 1980 . It is by no means exhaustive but in a brief and cursory manner looks at the merits and demerits of elections in their current form in Zimbabwe. I would like to argue that elections have been done ritually and religiously since 1980 but elections thus far have failed to deliver democratic governance since 1980 . However, elections are the only way in which leaders and governments can be put in place in the absence of other alternatives they remain the only legitimate democratic avenue of collective political expression. My argument is that there have to be widespread electoral and political reforms before elections become a tool of effective governance and conflict transformation. It is however unlikely that the incumbents will be amenable to any reforms that may erode or compromise their grip on power.

Brief History of Elections In Zimbabwe

Since 1980 election results have been disputed with the 1980 elections being held amidst allegations of widespread voter intimidation and undue external influence on the electoral process. It was alleged by P.F ZAPU that ZANU P.F had embarked on nationwide terror campaign in order to coerce voters into electing their party into power. It was further alleged that a large number of ZANLA combatants had not gone into designated Assembly Points but instead ZANU had deployed a large number of Mujibhas and Chimbwidos into the assembly points whilst trained guerrillas continued to cause havoc in many rural areas .

The 1985 elections were held whilst the Gukurahundi Massacres were underway and the main opposition [P.F ZAPU ]at that time had its offices and operations curtailed . Most of their top leaders such as Sydney Malunga , Vote Moyo , Steve Vuma ,Steven Nkomo as well as LookOut Masuku and Dumiso Dabengwa were in detention . Central Intelligence Officials and the then newly created notorious Police Internal Security Intelligence, the Youth Brigades and the Fifth Brigade had lists of ZAPU officials in each district of Matabeleland/Midlands and went village by village wantonly killing abducting P.F ZAPU officials and the likes of Frasser Sibanda from Mpopoma [Bulawayo ]were abducted never to be seen again . Elections were still held and surprisingly ZAPU won all fifteen seats in Matabeleland but lost seats in the Midlands and Mashonaland West were ZANU had targeted P.F ZAPU supporters . The elections then cannot were not free and fair . In 1990 after the Unity Accord the main opposition was the Zimbabwe Unity Movement led by Edgar Tekere and his party was exposed to a lot of state vagaries and brutalities with Patrick Kombayi then a leading ZUM official being shot by intelligence agents . In spite of a sterling performance ZUM was soundly beaten and the system of first past the post ensured that they had few seats in parliament .

The 2000 parliamentary elections and 2002 Presidential Elections were some of the most violent and unfair elections in the history of the country with the advent of the Movement for Democratic Change . There was wide scale intimidation , murder and abductions of opposition supporters and officials with the likes of David Coltarts election agent Patrick Nabanyama being abducted and scores killed in cold blood . The state media was brazenly partisan, chiefs were whipped into line and land redistribution was done on partisan lines. Repressive and archaic laws such as the Public Order and Security Act and the Access to Information and Protection of Privacy Act were introduced. The then Morgan Tsvangirai led M.D.C disputed the elections and filed election petitions .

The same script happened in the 2008 elections where ZANU P.F and their candidate Robert Mugabe were beaten in the elections by the M.D.C . Election results were delayed and there was no outright winner according to the electoral management body . The opposition complained bitterly and a run off for the presidential elections was held . After thousands of opposition supporters were beaten and abducted Morgan Tsvangirai pulled out of the race . A political and electoral impasse ensued and a government of national unity was formed after mediation by South Africa’s Thabo Mbeki .

In 2013 ZANU P.F won both the parliamentary and presidential elections amidst of allegations of massive rigging which however could not be proved . It was a scenario of everybody knowing that they had been pick pocketed but not being sure how the electoral pickpocketing had been done . Of course there was also massive internal structural , strategic and political discord in the opposition that contributed to the loss including splitting of votes between the opposition parties . This aside the history of systematic and smart militarization of electoral and political processes continued and has become embedded in our collective electoral D.N.A .

This is not helped by weak internal democracy within major opposition parties where more often than not the most violent or corrupt end up winning as candidates as evidenced in the last elections where the number of women candidates decreased due to increased intra party violence .

The 2018 elections were predictably again disputed by the M .D.C Alliance but it is pretty obvious that after a coup the incumbents were not going to give away power on a silver platter .The new political establishment , jettisoned into power through a military coup needed the elections to be baptized and confirmed as legitimate whilst the opposition saw it as a democratic opportunity to conquer power .It was obvious that at any and every means the new /old political military- political establishment needed to win the elections and they made sure that they did because the consequences of losing after a military takeover where monumental .

Once again for 2023 the script is the same . Party state conflation rules the roost , traditional leaders continue to be partisan , food distribution is politicized , the composition of the ZEC secretariat is questionable and state media is an extension of the ruling party . The first part the post system continues marginalizing minority voices and so called smaller parties with key geo political interests and positions will continue to be side-lined. It is unlikely that the 2013 elections will deliver a different result. The script remains the same . The actors can change but unless the script is changed the results will be the same and Zimbabweans will be crying foul once again. Elections in Zimbabwe are like as one person described “two lions and one sheep deciding what to have for supper “.

I am not saying elections are useless but in the absence of far reaching reforms such as :

1. Independence of the electoral management body

2. A clean voters roll and a transparent process of voter registration

3. Punitive measures for partisan traditional leaders

4. Depoliticization of food distribution and inputs

5. Demilitarization of elections – especially involvement in the electoral management body secretariat

6. Media reform

7. Respect for the constitution and upholding of fundamental human rights .

8. Deharmonizing local government elections from presidential elections so that local government elections focus on local issues , and quality meritocratic leadership

9. Proportional representation in parliament – it has its own disadvantages though but the first past the post system entrenches big man politics .

In the absence of this elections are a mere political ritual carried out religiously to legitimize incumbents at the altar of political convenience

Mayibuye

Dumisani Nkomo writes here in his personal capacity . He is an opinion leader, columnist and Chief Executive Officer of Habakkuk Trust .He is also the vice chairman of the Zimbabwe Election Support Network

Dumisani.nkomo@gmail.com

Tuesday, 28 August 2018

Where To Zim - Challenges Facing E.D and Zim Government

Where to Zimbabwe? Challenges Facing E.D

By Dumisani O. Nkomo

The elections have come and gone so has the Constitutional Court process of dealing with the disputed election outcome. What is imperative now is how the nation moves forward. The key players in this unfolding drama need to clearly map a way forward and avoid being stuck in a moment of history or a moment of madness. To this end, a number of challenges await the President Emmerson Mnangagwa.

Challenges Mnangagwa Faces

Legitimacy

The elections were an important legitimation process for the military establishment which ousted Robert Mugabe in the November 2017 coup de tat. Without winning the support of the people through the most recognizable test of democracy which is an election, the Mnangagwa regime suffered a critical legitimacy crisis. The election was thus a critical political ritual to baptise the regime into democratic sainthood. The results were contested by Nelson Chamisa and the M.D.C Alliance but he failed to win the case in the Constitutional Court. Even though Mnangagwa ultimately emerged unscathed in the Concourt and was declared the winner; he mainly attained legal legitimacy but continues to suffer from a deficit of political and moral legitimacy. The electoral process and the Concourt process managed to cleanse the regime but fell short in terms of broader public perception and confidence. The majority of urbanites for example who voted for Chamisa still feel the elections were stolen and thus eroding the moral and political legitimacy of Mnangagwa. The best remedy to deal with this would have been an inclusive government. However, in the face of an ostensive ZANU P.F with the majority in parliament and the destructive winner take all mentality in the ruling party and the radical stance of Chamisa, this appears unlikely. Mnangagwa thus has the unenviable task of governing a country where the majority of people who contribute to the fiscus through taxes, various levies, rates and economic activities are from urban areas and did not vote for him. The erosion of Mnangagwa’s political and moral legitimacy is not just philosophical but may translate into a lack of confidence into economic governance processes further translating into lack of confidence in official processes and institutions. This may result in short term thinking and short termism in financial practises which may affect sectors such as the banking sector which may suffer from depositors burn out. This can culminate in a decrease in savings, investment and deposits with potential catastrophic impact on the economy. Remittances from the Diaspora may also be eroded by lack of trust in the government and its economic processes.

Credibility of Democratic Institutions

Secondly, Mnangagwa has to deal with a public with decreased confidence in independent institutions which undergird or support and entrench democracy. The credibility of the Zimbabwe Electoral Commission for example alongside other Chapter 12 institutions will be severely affected as a result of the contested election. Whether or not there was sufficient evidence to prove that there was rigging or no rigging; there is prevailing and prevalent public opinion that public institutions such as Z.E.C cannot be trusted. There will also be increasing mistrust in the independence of the judiciary. Whilst the judgement of the Constitutional Court must be respected and upheld, its ruling will undoubtedly raise question marks on the independence of the judiciary. This erosion of confidence is largely as a result of speculative reality rather than substantive reality as people will then perceive the courts as not being independent and credible. Whether this is right or justified or not is another question altogether. There will be a domino effect on other independent institutions including Chapter 12 institutions such as the Zimbabwe Human Rights Commission, the Zimbabwe Media Commission and importantly the National Peace and Reconciliation Commission. Public confidence in these institutions as instruments of democratization will be severely tested in the next five to ten years.

Confidence

The bigger challenge that the government faces is that of instilling public confidence in itself and government processes. The fact that Mnangagwa suffered rejection even from his own party epitomized by ruling party parliamentary candidates scoring higher votes than himself portrays a deeper crisis of confidence which may manifest itself in parliament and in policy making processes. It is within speculative reality to opine or conclude that there may be a substantial number of Members of Parliament who may either be loyal to Mugabe or other powerful individuals other than Mnangagwa himself. This may lead to multiple centres of power within government thus affecting policy implementation and inevitably service delivery, political and economic stability. This chasm has also been evident in the security forces where it has become obvious that sectors such as the police and intelligence apparatus are not fully loyal to the incumbent. The cocktail of all these issues severely erodes internal and external confidence in Mnangagwa and his team. The composition of his cabinet is the first test of his commitment to change and the economic development agenda.

Its game on for Mnangagwa but he faces a multiplicity of challenges which will test his resolve. The Zimbabwe is open for business thrust of the government faces immense challenges in the wake of a crisis of internal and external confidence.

Dumisani O. Nkomo writes in his personal capacity.

Wednesday, 8 August 2018

Lessons From the 2018 Elections

Lessons from The Elections

By Dumisani O. Nkomo

The results of the 2018 Harmonized elections provide an insight into voting trends and patterns which are useful for understanding Voter Psychology and the factors that influence how and who the electorate vote for. There are useful lessons for the contestants as well as other players such as the electoral management body [Z.E.C], observers, civil society and the general public. The two key lessons gleaned from this election are that the Zimbabwean electorate is binary in its choice of candidates and there is a clear dichotomy between the urban electorate and the rural electorate.

Bi Focal and Binary Voting

The leader of the People’s Rainbow Coalition Dr Joice Mujury correctly noted that Zimbabwe is a two party state where voters vote in a binary manner. Although there were over 120 political parties that contested in the elections it was just two parties that garnered the majority of votes where the National Patriotic Front was the only other Party able to grab a seat. This is a clear indication that Zimbabwe is not ready for small parties and independent parties. This is regardless of the quality and calibre of candidates from alternative parties. Individual popularity of candidates did not translate into. This indicates that when Zimbabweans vote, what is important to them is the bigger and broader institution which they either have a sense of belonging to or be able to bring to account. This explains why the likes of Evan Mawarire who at the height of the 2016 shutdown attracted the attention of thousands of Zimbabweans failed to win in a local government election losing to the equally able Jacob Mafume. The list is endless with firebrands such as Fadzai Mahere, Jesse Majome also not making it in spite of incredible social media presence and digital footprint. This of course also informs another important observation that social media presence does not necessarily translate into votes. Importantly this means that the Zimbabwean voter whilst recognizing the importance of the individual contribution of activists are still prone to vote for big parties with the ability to “conquer or retain power “.

In the mind of the urban voter especially, a candidate or party must either be able to conquer or retain power and outside of that smaller fringe parties stood and stand very little chance. In essence therefore it can be concluded that Zimbabwean voters have a bifocal voting lens which chooses to select any of the big two parties. This is also evidenced in the presidential elections where of the 23 candidates only Chamisa and Mnangagwa accounted for almost 95 % of the vote with the other 21 candidates sharing less than 5 % of the presidential vote. Even in the U.K, there are two main parties which are dominant namely the Conservatives and the Labour Party with the Liberal Democrats emerging in the last decade. In America it is largely a contest between the Republicans and the Democrats. It must be noted however that in both these two countries there is robust internal democracy which allows for competition within the parties. It will take a political evolution of ten to fifteen years for the Zimbabwean voter to become multi focal in their electoral choices. However, the bifocal and binary voting trends and patterns may continue well into the future with people then by virtue of political osmosis gravitating towards bigger political formations such as the M.D.C Alliance or ZANU P.F. This means the two parties have to be ready for an influx of new cadres trying to find credence and relevance within bigger formations as opposed to affiliation to smaller parties who may due to the obtaining bi focal political culture be unable to attract new cadres. The current first past the post system favours bigger parties and a system of full proportional representation would have been conducive for smaller interest based and regional parties.

The Rural – Urban Dichotomy

The results also clearly demonstrate that there is a dichotomy between the rural and urban electorate. ZANU P.F and Emmerson Mnangwagwa clearly dominated the rural areas whilst Nelson Chamisa dominated urban areas. This means there is need to understand the psyche and political electoral behaviour of the rural populace if for example Nelson Chamisa and the M.D.C Alliance is to stand any chance in the next elections. The rural voter is most probably concerned about livelihoods issues, issues of access to water, irrigation, food, cattle and so forth. This is accentuated by the fact that whilst basic geography dictates that in development patterns there is movement of people from rural areas to urban areas in Zimbabwe this has not been the case due to economic stagnation.

There must be a significant investment by the opposition in the future at understanding the rural voter and being relevant to the rural voter.

Dumisani O. Nkomo