S.A.D.C TROIKA, SPEAKERSHIP DEBACLE-SIGNIFICANCE, IMPLICATIONS AND POSSIBILITIES
By Dumisani O. Nkomo
In a space of a week ZANU P.F suffered two excruciating defeats at two critical sites of political contest namely Parliament and at the SADC Troika Meeting in Zambia. The victory of Lovemore Moyo in the battle for the post of Speaker against all odds in the face of growing repression, arbitrary arrests of opposition and civic activists was indeed a significant political development. Critically the tough position adopted by the SADC organ on Security, Politics and Defence against President Robert Mugabe and his ZANU P.F Party marked a radical shift in regional politics which could have a bearing on the direction of national politics in Zimbabwe. It is in this context that is it is important to briefly analyze the import, significance and impact of the two political developments and how they will shape power dynamics in the country.
It is not only important but also imperative to celebrate these two victories and beyond that consolidate the political territory that has been successfully defended and gained through the two critical victories. The maturity and magnanimity of the M.D.C led by Welshman Ncube should be applauded by all progressive Zimbabweans. As I have argued consistently before, a united front is the only way of unseating ZANU PF. It would be tragic if the M.D.C T failed to reciprocate this act of statesmanship.
In the same vein Morgan Tsvangirai must be commended as well for his outstanding diplomatic offensive in Southern Africa just before the TROIKA Summit. I have argued in previous articles that the M.D.C T is very weak in its regional advocacy but this time round the party did its homework and for the first time President Mugabe and ZANU P.F got a rude awakening as Presidents Jacob Zuma, Rupiah Banda and the other Heads of State were in no mood for compromise this time around.
The two victories at Parliamentary and regional level are important in a number of ways and specifically for the following reasons:
Confidence Building
The victory of Lovemore Moyo over Simon Khaya Moyo is not just a victory of the M.D.C T over ZANU P.F but sends positive signals to the fatigued electorate that ZANU P.F can still be defeated in spite of its recourse to force, violence and intimidation.
Unity of Purpose
The fact that Welshman Ncube and some elements in ZANU P.F supported the M.D.C candidate, Lovemore Moyo is a basis for building a more solid moral alliance against ZANU PF with the possibility of reaching out to progressive elements within the former liberation party.
Cracks in ZANU PF
The very fact that several ZANU PF Members of Parliament regardless of numbers voted against the party’s preferred candidate in itself served to magnify the fissures within the party which could prove detrimental to their electoral aspirations. Internal cracks tend to be more difficult to manage than external opposition and could heighten factionalism in ZANU PF increasing internal contestations for power as well as suspicion and witch hunting which could severely hamper the party’s success in any election. It would be in the realm of conjecture and speculation to ascertain the reasons why ZANU P.F legislators voted for an M.D.C candidate.
It could be a result of internal factional politics with neither of the two or three factions within ZANU P.F willing to give the other an advantage. In the battle for strategic succession positioning a victory for any one of the factions could have presented it with a unique advantage in the legislature.
The “rebel” ZANU PF M.P’s could also be reformists who are tired of their party’s ruthless and heartless tactics. Where these M.P.’s driven by conscience or sheer political considerations? The motivation for their actions could be crucial in tilting the power game against ZANU PF if there are reformist elements within the party who are willing to work with progressive political formations. Even if this is not the case if the legislators were driven by “succession” or faction politics this is still grievous and harmful to ZANU PF because it would imply that factionalism in the party is actually a bigger problem than initially perceived or imagined, a factor which could be unhelpful for ZANU P.F’s election drive .
Shift in SADC Position
The strongly worded communiqué released by the SADC Organ on Politics, Defence and Security indicates a shift in both attitude and action by SADC as demonstrated by the decision to second a panel to work with the Joint Monitoring and Implementation Committee [JOMIC]. Traditionally and historically Mugabe has enjoyed the support of SADC leaders as an elder statesman but quite clearly the scales have tilted against the Octogenarian leader and ZANU P.F. Predictably ZANU PF has argued that the SADC Troika’s actions are tantamount to interfering in the internal affairs of Zimbabwe. However, Article 22:6 of the Global Political Agreement gives SADC a role in the Zimbabwean situation as guarantors and underwriters of the Global Political Agreement together with the Facilitator Jacob Zuma [Formerly Thabo Mbeki] and the African Union. In the context of regional and continental politics ZANU PF is becoming increasingly isolated and sounding like an abusive husband who claims he has the right to bludgeon his wife and his neighbours have no right to stop him from brutally and savagely beating his spouse and children.
ZANU P.F has thus lost in two sites of political struggle and contestation namely Parliament and the Regional Arena thus reducing their circle of friends, influence and political control. Whether they like it or not ZANU P.F is no longer in the driving seat and they have invited this on themselves. However, opposition parties and the progressive democratic movement should not relax because of this momentary victory. There is need to consolidate the gains made through a solid alliance of the main political parties i.e. M.D.C T, M.D.C led by Ncube, ZAPU and other progressive forces. This alliance should not take away the identities of the political parties but be a strategic electoral and parliamentary coalition.
Secondly there is need to maintain momentum in regional, continental and international lobbying of SADC, the A.U, and the United Nations using the Global Political Agreement as a lobbying tool.
Thirdly there should be massive mobilization of Zimbabweans to register to vote, to protect the vote and to engage in positive non violent direct actions to bring peaceful and democratic change.
Mayibuye IZimbabwe
Dumisani O. Nkomo is an activist, writer and opinion leader. He writes here in his personal capacity. He can be contacted on dumisani.nkomo@gmail.com/blog-www.dumisanionkomo.blogspot
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