Electoral Pacts Imperative

Election Pacts Inevitable and imperative

By Dumisani O. Nkomo

The harmonized election to be held next year presents Zimbabweans with a unique opportunity of once and for all confining ZANU P.F.  and its leadership to the dustbin of history. However as I have always consistently argued, it is not just about removing Mugabe and ZANU P.F. but rather removing a system and a political culture that have brought the country to its knees through official political gangsterism and  a  rogue “vampire state” that has devoured its citizens .Critically it would be naive at best and suicidal at best for any one political party to think that they can achieve electoral success without support from other political players. Whilst the M.D.C T arguably remains the biggest threat to Robert  Mugabe and ZANU P.F.  if we are to read from the script of the last election, the resurgence of Welshman  Ncube’s M.D.C especially in Matabeleland and parts of Midlands can only be ignored at great peril. Likewise the possibility of Dabengwa’s ZAPU stealing some ZANU P.F votes in ZANU P.F strongholds  remains a positive for the broader progressive movement. Admittedly both Simba Makoni ‘s Mavambo Kusile Dawn and Dabengwa’s ZAPU seem to have almost faded into political oblivion but as the late Professor Masiphula Sithole used to declare “all things are possible in politics and religion”. In this vein I would like to argue that  electoral pacts or alliances are likely to be formed or rather should be formed in order to ensure that Robert Mugabe’s ZANU P.F is defeated. Outside of this we may wake up to the shock ,trepidation and trauma of yet another ZANU P.F victory this time even without  recourse to  violence but due to the fragmentation of contesting political parties.

M.D.C and ZAPU

In my humble opinion ZAPU led by Dabengwa and Ncube’s  M.D.C  will need to form an electoral alliance since they are likely to fish from the same proverbial pond .They are likely to draw a lot of their support from the Matabeleland and Midlands. However Ncube’s M.D.C appears to have an upper hand since it also appeals to the younger generation  with its Information savvy strategies and multi faceted stakeholder engagement approach. ZAPU is likely to appeal to the older generation of former ZAPU supporters and disgruntled ZANU P.F supporters who may consider a move to any of the  M.D.C’s radical. The two parties may also converge ideologically as both propound the principle of devolution of power voraciously and seem to be assertive and about issues pertaining to Matabeleland. They are thus likely to find common ground because of this and may decide to form an alliance against ZANU P.F and the M.D.C T in order to preserve Matabeleland representation .To all intents and purposes neither are likely to win any seats outside Matabeleland and neither is likely to win a presidential election. However both will be critical in producing a president  as the M.D.C  T may need the  5 % to 10 % difference to win the presidential elections .If the Freedom House survey is anything to go by they will definitely need every vote due to ZANU P.F ‘s ascendancy. Fringe parties such as Siwela’s M.L.F and other small parties should not be ignored in the equation as they may not have much in terms of votes but their voice is critical in backing a common candidate or common candidates .

M.D.C –T and ZANU NDONGA

This alliance is likely to be formalized as there are already indications that the M.D.C –T is courting ZANU Ndonga .However the M.D.C –T is quite established in the former ZANU Ndonga strongholds of Chipinge but may just need to make sure with a strategic alliance with the late Rev Ndabaningi Sithole’s party which once created a an impenetrable fotress in Chipinge .This alliance is important for the M.D.C –T but  will not make any significant change on the electoral landscape .

M.D.C T  and M.D.C

An alliance between these two parties is absolutely essential and the absence of such an arrangement could be suicidal to both as ZANU P.F will benefit from a divided M.D.C votes ..Such an electoral alliance may take the shape of the two parties agreeing on who to field as council  and parliamentary candidates and fielding one presidential candidate. They should then identify the best candidates to stand at ward, constituency and senatorial level  and even consider able and competent people who may not be part of their parties but who may have the credentials to make good legislators. Whilst this is the most desirable scenario it will be scuttled by the stampede for parliamentary seats and the desire to prove who the boss is. Paradoxically the key to this electoral alliance depends on the political will of politicians from Matabeleland as they stand to gain or lose more than politicians in other parts of the country. This is because Matabeleland will be the most heavily contested region with M.D.C.-T ,M.D.C ,Z.A.N.U P.F and ZAPU staking a strong claim on the region unlike in other parts of the country where it may be a two horse contest between M.D.C T and ZANU P.F .

Presidential Elections

To be true to reality either ZANU P.F.  or the M.D.C –T are most likely to produce a president in the next elections but  the M.D.C led by Ncube may play a critical role in king making or deciding who becomes president since they may garner up to 10 % of the vote .It will then become necessary for the M.D.C T to negotiate with the M.D.C  now or risk an egg in the face after a  ZANU P.F electoral victory in the presidential or even parliamentary elections.

Parliament

The chances of a hung parliament or a parliament in which no political party has a majority is quite high with a possibility of the both ZANU P.F and M.D.C T requiring the support of the M.D.C led by Ncube. Although it is still possible for the M.D.C T to win a substantial number of votes and seats they would rather exercise wisdom and caution than throw caution to the wind and go it alone as this is probably their last chance of winning an election .The M.D.C led by Ncube has the luxury of potentially holding the deciding vote both in the presidential and parliamentary elections with an expected better showing in Matabeleland than in the previous election .Whilst Ncube may be a good presidential candidate and be of the right presidential material he is unlikely to win the presidential elections in 2013. Morgan Tsvangirai on the other hand will not win the election with a clear majority without the support of Welshman Ncube  and it becomes natural and practical in the best interests of the nation for the two to establish an election pact. If they do not do this both will lose but the biggest losers will be the people of Zimbabwe .

 

 

An election pact or alliance between the  two main M.D.C formation thus becomes an imperative which neither party can ignore. The situation on the ground ,history and past political behaviour seem to conspire against an electoral alliance or pact. This is evident is strategic blunders made by both M.D.C  formations. The most divisive issue will be the issue of  the recognition or lack of recognition of Welshman Ncube as principal by both ZANU P.F and the M.D.C –T . On the other hand the public haranguing of the Morgan Tsvangirai and the M.D.C –T by the M.D.C [Ncube ] has not helped issues. The two M.D C formations have formed a healthy alliance in the constitution making process although at times they failed to contain ZANU P.F and the two parties could build on this. They would need to translate their informal collective resistance to ZANU P.F. in the constitution making process to an active and pro-active electoral alliance against ZANU P.F .

Whatever the case is it would not be in the interest of Zimbabweans and indeed the interests of the M.D.C formations and ZAPU to enter the elections as a divided force as this could result in an election victory for Mugabe and ZANU P.F and several decades more “economic  and political purgatory for the people of Zimbabwe .

An electoral pact will inspire public confidence and faith in the elections as the possibility of change of government will be a certain reality given a broad based electoral alliance.

Dumisani. O. Nkomo is the Chief Executive Officer of Habakkuk Trust, Principal Spokesperson of the Matabeleland Civil Society Forum. He writes here in his personal capacity. He can be contacted on dumisani.nkomo@gmail or follow him on his blog dumisanionkomo.blogspot.com