Electoral Pact –ABSOLUTELY NECESSARY
By Dumisani O. Nkomo
Last year I suggested that an electoral pact is imperative
and inevitable having said since then there has been heated debate on the
issues. I would like to categorically state that if the two M.D.C ‘s do not
agree on such an arrangement chances of them losing to ZANU P.F are quite high.
This arrangement would help in constructing a stable new economic and political
architecture in the post ZANU P.F era as
the former presidential party is unable and or unwilling to capture international
support and investor confidence .The two M.D.C ‘s should look at the greatest
good for the greatest number of people and
this I believe would be an electoral pact which would enable them to
field one candidate for the presidential elections and concur on candidates for
parliamentary and local government elections .
Political Egos
The biggest impediment to an
electoral pact between the two M.D C formations I not ideological as both
parties are two dominant and separate social democratic entities .I would like
to argue that in the current contestation; it is more about egos than about anything
since both formations want to prove that they have political muscle and support
. The M.D.C –T would like to prove that once and for all that it is the most
dominant party by vanquishing the M.D.C led by Ncube and ZANU P.F. The M.D.C
led by Professor Ncube would like to prove it has gained ground and is a king
maker in Zimbabwean politics. In both these assumptions the two parties are correct
because political parties exists to contest for power and not to share power necessarily. In a normal cases political parties can also exist to defend and
advance specific geo political ,socio-cultural ,economic or environmental
interests .However in the context of Zimbabwe such a political architecture is
a luxury we cannot afford and the political super structure in Zimbabwe
provides no room for such luxuries .If the two parties continue to dilly dally
ZANU P.F AND Mugabe will win the next elections confining the two formations to history as Zimbabwean politics
in five years time may will be quite different from current politics with the
possible emergence of strong alternative
new political factors ,formations and voices ,with the possibility of a
reformed ZANU P.F at best and a deformed one at worst .In essence this is the
last chance for the MD.C.-T and Morgan Tsvangirai to win elections and this could be the last time for Professor
Ncube to continue being relevant to Zimbabwean politics .
The ZANU P.F FACTOR
In the same manner that the
resurgence of Ncube’s M.D.C is undoubted ,the resurgence of ZANU P.F is a
political reality for the following reasons :
Apathy
Apathy is likely to be a factor in
the next elections as the electorate is
likely to have little motivation for voting .Even then voter turn out is likely
to dwindle as it has for the past
three elections .The protest vote on the other hand is unpredictable and may
shrink .The protest vote has also been
affected by a massive exodus to the diaspora .
Secondly the Community Share
Ownership Schemes and Indigenization
Programmes whilst being quite genocidal and suicidal for the economy
may get ZANU P.F few more votes
especially in rural Mashonaland ,Manicaland ,Masvingo and a few pockets in
Matabeleland .
This coupled with dents to the brand of Morgan Tsvangirai
in the past year u to well documented
policy inconsistencies and personal
misdemeanours has significantly eroded
the M.D.C –T ‘s support .This does not however automatically translate into
support for Ncube in all cases but rather erosion of confidence in the whole
voting and political process . thus contributing to apathy .This makes an
electoral pact absolutely necessary as both parties could end up being the
biggest losers .
The M.D.C formation led by
Ncube has made a remarkable turn around and is indeed a force to reckon with
but will not win the presidential or parliamentary elections .If Zimbabweans
are still motivated primarily by the desire to remove Mugabe and ZANU P.F , the
M.D.C [Ncube ]would then a become an unfortunate victim of broader protest
politics regardless of the quality of their policies and candidate[s].Ncube will
definitely make a huge mark on the southern part of country but In the broader scheme of
political arithmetic this may present an advantage to Mugabe and ZANU P.F who will benefit from a split presidential vote and splits in
votes for parliamentary seats coupled
with apathy .
At the end of it all the two M.D.C
‘s should ensure that they maximize both the presidential and parliamentary
votes and the best way of doing this is
through an electoral pact based on agreed upon formulas .
I agree as a Ndebele that it is
unacceptable for a Ndebele to be only seen as a vice president and not be able
to contest for the post of president but
in the current scheme of things Ncube can still mount a formidable challenge in 2018 instead of going
the “all or nothing” route . The M.D.C
–T is also presented with a win -win situation as they need to win the
presidential election and secure a majority in parliament .
I am aware that there is a lot of bitterness and acrimony between the two parties as a result of the original split
in 2006 ,the failed 2008 agreement amongst other things .Such is life when a
husband and wife fight all they remember are the worst attributes and characteristics
of the other person .In essence the two have more in common than they realize and
they both have more to gain from an electoral pact .We need the genius and substance
of Welshman Ncube as well as the charisma and brand of Morgan
Tsvangirai .I am confident that the two leaders and two parties will show the
nation that they are true statesmen and national leaders with the people at
heart .What they are doing now is like the old story of little children who
fight over what they would do with money if ever they picked it ,even before
they have picked the money .Grow up .
Mayibuye I Zimbabwe
Dumisani O Nkomo is the chief executive officer of
Habakkuk Trust ,activist and spokesperson of the Matabeleland Civil Society
Forum .He writes in his personal capacity .He can .be on Dumisani.nkomo@gmail.com or follow
his blog dumisanionkomo.blogspot.com
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