WHO WILL WIN THE ELECTIONS?
Dark Horses, Spoilers and
Kingmakers
By Dumisani O. Nkomo
In last week’s instalment, I
analysed the chances of President Emmerson Mnangagwa and Nelson Chamisa’s
prospects in the 30 July Presidential race. In this instalment I will focus on
the chances of four other contenders for the presidency but more importantly
assess the extent to which they will have an impact on the votes that Nelson
Chamisa and Emmerson Mnangagwa will ultimately get. This year Zimbabwe has a
record of 23 Presidential candidates with the nature of candidates ranging from
brilliant to bizarre but in a democracy such as ours “all things may be permissible
but not all things may be beneficial “as the Apostle Paul notes in his letter
to the Romans”.
Undoubtedly, the electorate with
some of the candidates’ names and parties for the first time in the voting
booth and what an experience it will be, with the novel possibility of having
textbook size ballot paper or will it be ballot booklet. Nonetheless it is essential
for the electorate to know the calibre, capacity, craft competence and
probability of winning of the various candidates on offer.
Assumptions for Strong
Candidature
In an ideal world the qualities
and ability of prospective candidates is the sole determining factor but in a
country such as ours which some define as an emerging democracy, others as a
fragile democracy, yet others say it’s a glorified securocracy; it may be a pie
in the sky to assume that a mericrocratic democracy [as Brett Chulu would call it]
is a possibility. A democratic meritocracy captures the essence of electing
leaders or having leaders that are elected or chosen on merit and not
necessarily on popularity. Popularity may not necessarily denote or translate
into what some scholars describe as “craft competence” or the ability to
deliver based on the availability of key skills and competencies.
Some of the essential strengths
and competencies that are required by political players, more so those contending
for the Presidency require in the Zimbabwean context are the following:
1. Strong institutional presence
and capacity epitomized by strong party structures at local level.
2. Institutional “vote
harvesting” capacity evidenced by fielding of candidates countrywide so as to
harvest as many votes as possible.
3. Relevance
4. Electoral appeal and charisma
5. Competence/ ability
6. Social media impact
7. Capacity to harness rural vote
8. Youth Appeal
If we to use the above as a basis
of assessing the chances and impact of electoral candidates it then leaves four
other candidates in contention to be either dark horses to win, possible spoilers,
vote splitters and or king makers in the event of a run off. Those in
contention outside of Mnangwagwa and Chamisa then become Joyce Mujuru, Thokozani
Khuphe, Nkosana Moyo and Ambrose Mutinhiri. These four candidates will
significantly impact on electoral choices and the electoral chances of the two
main contenders as they will eat into or provide alternatives to the two.
Importantly, it must be noted
that a presidential candidate who is backed by a part with a presence in all or
most of the constituencies generally stands a better chance than candidate who
does not have the backing of a party with candidates in all or most
constituencies. The general assumption is that a Presidential candidate with at
least 150 candidates contesting at house of assembly level and about a thousand
at local government level has more chances of harnessing votes since the
various candidates at various levels will probably also campaign and harness
votes for the party’s presidential candidate or preferred Presidential
candidate.
Joyce Mujuru’s People’s Rainbow
Coalition has House of Assembly in all provinces and only trails the M.D.C
Alliance and Zanu P.F in this regard who are contesting in 209 and 210 House of
Assembly constituencies. Joyce Mujuru therefore stands a huge chance of
harnessing a significant number of votes due to the institutional capacity of
her party to carry her campaign at Ward and Constituency level. Her other
strength is that she appears to be a mature alternative to Nelson Chamisa and
has a better human rights record than Emmerson Mnangagwa as she was not out
rightly fingered in human rights violations of the eighties in Matabeleland and
the 2000 to 2008 violence. She has worked in government before as a vice
President and was effective enough to warrant suspicions that she was a threat
to former President Robert Mugabe’s throne. She will do well in the Mashonaland
Central and probably Mashonaland East provinces in terms of number of votes.
She will be a beneficiary of Zimbabwe’s ethnocentric politics as she belongs to
the Zezuru tribe which has deep roots in the Mashonaland provinces. The
country’s patrichal culture which has seen the number of women candidates
dwindling due to intimidation, violence and vote buying in most of the major
political parties may not significantly affect her as she has historically
earned a reputation of being a leading liberation war hero and later on vice
President of choice. She is mature and has characteristics of a statesperson.
Weakness
She lacks charisma and popular
appeal and projects lack of intellectual depth. She has not clearly articulated
her dream or vision for a Zimbabwe of the future unlike Chamisa and E.D. I am
not referring to manifestoes here but an ability to intuitively paint a picture
of the Zimbabwe we want whenever given the opportunity. She will thus not
appeal to the youth who currently constitute up to about 45% of the electorate.
She was a cabinet minister from the eighties and to claim ignorance of Mugabe’s
political and economic genocide would denote lack of critical thinking.
She failed to emerge as the
leading opposition figure after she left ZANU PF at a time when many where
beginning to look for a third way and this may exhibit lack of assertiveness
and political inertia. She stands a good chance of coming in as a dark horse
and upsetting the top two contenders and at least diving the ZANU P.F vote. She
would be a king maker in the event of a run off and both Chamisa and Mnangagwa
may try to court her if she does not make it in the first round.
Thokozani Khuphe
The M.D.C – T led by Thokozani
Khuphe is fielding candidates in most provinces with fewer candidates in
Mashonaland Central and the Midlands probably due to political pacts with other
parties, possibly the P.R.C. She has been an apparent victim of internal
democracy weaknesses in the M.DC and has been subjected to verbal and physical
abuse by her erstwhile foes. This however will not be sufficient in landing her
the Presidency primarily because her party is not fielding candidates in all
the House of Assembly constituencies and local government wards thus affecting
her party’s institutional capacity to harvest or harness the necessary votes. Khuphe
is an experienced politician however who has served in government and has a
great record of developmental service. Her key weaknesses are lack of popular
appeal and destitution of relevance due to the Chamisa momentum and the E.D
juggernaut. The problem with momentum is that it may not necessarily install
the best candidate but it gathers pace and power for whoever has reins over it and
in this case it is Chamisa and E d Mnangagwa. Dr Thokozani Khuphe has a stately
demeanour and would be a head of government but although this may be desirable
this is highly unlikely. However, she lacks charisma and may not appeal to
younger voters. She will be a victim of Zimbabwe’s tribal politics as a Ndebele.
She has overcome the politics of patriachalism in the past and one hopes
Zimbabwe rids itself off sexism and tribalism which have been blight on good
leaders such as Khuphe, Priscilla Misihaimbwi to name a few. She will defiantly
split the Chamisa vote and the confusion in the party names may work to her advantage.
She cannot be wished away in an inclusive government or as a key ally in a run off.
Ambrose Mutinhiri
The reason why I place Mutinhiri
and his fractured National Patriotic Front in the equation is because this
party is fielding candidates countrywide and has enough internal knowledge of
Zanu P.F to cause grief to Emmerson Mnangagwa and ZANU P.F. Obviously the main
objective of the N.P. F is not to win the Presidential race but to ensure that
E.D does not. Institutionally Mutinhiri will be buoyed by the party’s strength
in Mashonaland Central and Mashonaland East and West which have a combined
1687692 number of registered voters. Robert Mugabe is still relatively popular
in the Mashonaland provinces and this will add impetus to Mutinhiri. The former
Zipra commander however lacks charisma, appeal, initiative and relevance. His military background comes in handy in the
face of rising securocratic politics in Zimbabwe and definitely ethnic politics
will work in his favour. However, as I said his aim is not necessarily to win
the elections but to be a spoiler and hopefully grab a number of House of Assembly
seats. He will divide the ZANU P.F Presidential vote. His party is experiencing
internal fractures which may weaken his chances substantially. He will be a spoiler
in this election.
Space and time does not permit me
to significantly analyse the chances of Dr Nkosana Moyo and will be an
injustice to this great man to commit a paragraph to him. To this end I will
look at his chances and indeed his role in the next instalment with the
introductory challenge being his party’s inability to field sufficient house of
assembly candidates which according to my theory of institutional presence and a
capacity significantly affect his chances. Let me do justice to him however and
analyse that in the next instalment.
Conclusion
If we are to stick to the theory
that Presidential candidates who are contesting in the most number of
constituencies generally stand a better chance than those who have fewer House
of Assembly candidates, then it becomes a logical conclusion that the race may
be between Emmerson Mnangwagwa and Nelson Chamisa with Joyce Mujuru as a dark horse,
Khuphe as a king maker, Mutininhiri as a spoiler and Nkosana Moyo being brilliant
Presidential candidate but with a better chance in 2023 or 2028.
Dumisani Nkomo is the Chief Executive
Officer of Habakkuk Trust. He writes here in his personal capacity. He can be
contacted on email address – Dumisani.nkomo@gmail.com
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