Where To Zim - Challenges Facing E.D and Zim Government

Where to Zimbabwe? Challenges Facing E.D

By Dumisani O. Nkomo

The elections have come and gone so has the Constitutional Court process of dealing with the disputed election outcome. What is imperative now is how the nation moves forward. The key players in this unfolding drama need to clearly map a way forward and avoid being stuck in a moment of history or a moment of madness. To this end, a number of challenges await the President Emmerson Mnangagwa.

Challenges Mnangagwa Faces

Legitimacy

The elections were an important legitimation process for the military establishment which ousted Robert Mugabe in the November 2017 coup de tat. Without winning the support of the people through the most recognizable test of democracy which is an election, the Mnangagwa regime suffered a critical legitimacy crisis. The election was thus a critical political ritual to baptise the regime into democratic sainthood. The results were contested by Nelson Chamisa and the M.D.C Alliance but he failed to win the case in the Constitutional Court.  Even though Mnangagwa ultimately emerged unscathed in the Concourt and was declared the winner; he mainly attained legal legitimacy but continues to suffer from a deficit of political and moral legitimacy. The electoral process and the Concourt process managed to cleanse the regime but fell short in terms of broader public perception and confidence. The majority of urbanites for example who voted for Chamisa still feel the elections were stolen and thus eroding the moral and political legitimacy of Mnangagwa. The best remedy to deal with this would have been an inclusive government. However, in the face of an ostensive ZANU P.F with the majority in parliament and the destructive winner take all mentality in the ruling party and the radical stance of Chamisa, this appears unlikely. Mnangagwa thus has the unenviable task of governing a country where the majority of people who contribute to the fiscus through taxes, various levies, rates and economic activities are from urban areas and did not vote for him. The erosion of Mnangagwa’s political and moral legitimacy is not just philosophical but may translate into a lack of confidence into economic governance processes further translating into lack of confidence in official processes and institutions. This may result in short term thinking and short termism in financial practises which may affect sectors such as the banking sector which may suffer from depositors burn out. This can culminate in a decrease in savings, investment and deposits with potential catastrophic impact on the economy. Remittances from the Diaspora may also be eroded by lack of trust in the government and its economic processes.

Credibility of Democratic Institutions

Secondly, Mnangagwa has to deal with a public with decreased confidence in independent institutions which undergird or support and entrench democracy. The credibility of the Zimbabwe Electoral Commission for example alongside other Chapter 12 institutions will be severely affected as a result of the contested election. Whether or not there was sufficient evidence to prove that there was rigging or no rigging; there is prevailing and prevalent public opinion that public institutions such as Z.E.C cannot be trusted. There will also be increasing mistrust in the independence of the judiciary. Whilst the judgement of the Constitutional Court must be respected and upheld, its ruling will undoubtedly raise question marks on the independence of the judiciary. This erosion of confidence is largely as a result of speculative reality rather than substantive reality as people will then perceive the courts as not being independent and credible. Whether this is right or justified or not is another question altogether. There will be a domino effect on other independent institutions including Chapter 12 institutions such as the Zimbabwe Human Rights Commission, the Zimbabwe Media Commission and importantly the National Peace and Reconciliation Commission. Public confidence in these institutions as instruments of democratization will be severely tested in the next five to ten years.

Confidence

The bigger challenge that the government faces is that of instilling public confidence in itself and government processes. The fact that Mnangagwa suffered rejection even from his own party epitomized by ruling party parliamentary candidates scoring higher votes than himself portrays a deeper crisis of confidence which may manifest itself in parliament and in policy making processes. It is within speculative reality to opine or conclude that there may be a substantial number of Members of Parliament who may either be loyal to Mugabe or other powerful individuals other than Mnangagwa himself. This may lead to multiple centres of power within government thus affecting policy implementation and inevitably service delivery, political and economic stability. This chasm has also been evident in the security forces where it has become obvious that sectors such as the police and intelligence apparatus are not fully loyal to the incumbent.  The cocktail of all these issues severely erodes internal and external confidence in Mnangagwa and his team. The composition of his cabinet is the first test of his commitment to change and the economic development agenda.

Its game on for Mnangagwa but he faces a multiplicity of challenges which will test his resolve. The Zimbabwe is open for business thrust of the government faces immense challenges in the wake of a crisis of internal and external confidence.

Dumisani O. Nkomo writes in his personal capacity.

Lessons From the 2018 Elections

Lessons from The Elections

By Dumisani O. Nkomo

The results of the 2018 Harmonized elections provide an insight into voting trends and patterns which are useful for understanding Voter Psychology and the factors that influence how and who the electorate vote for. There are useful lessons for the contestants as well as other players such as the electoral management body [Z.E.C], observers, civil society and the general public. The two key lessons gleaned from this election are that the Zimbabwean electorate is binary in its choice of candidates and there is a clear dichotomy between the urban electorate and the rural electorate.

Bi Focal and Binary Voting

The leader of the People’s Rainbow Coalition Dr Joice Mujury correctly noted that Zimbabwe is a two party state where voters vote in a binary manner. Although there were over 120 political parties that contested in the elections it was just two parties that garnered the majority of votes where the National Patriotic Front was the only other Party able to grab a seat. This is a clear indication that Zimbabwe is not ready for small parties and independent parties. This is regardless of the quality and calibre of candidates from alternative parties. Individual popularity of candidates did not translate into. This indicates that when Zimbabweans vote, what is important to them is the bigger and broader institution which they either have a sense of belonging to or be able to bring to account. This explains why the likes of  Evan Mawarire who at the height of the 2016 shutdown attracted the attention of thousands of Zimbabweans failed to win in a local government election losing to the equally able Jacob Mafume. The list is endless with firebrands such as Fadzai Mahere, Jesse Majome also not making it in spite of incredible social media presence and digital footprint. This of course also informs another important observation that social media presence does not necessarily translate into votes. Importantly this means that the Zimbabwean voter whilst recognizing the importance of the individual contribution of activists are still prone to vote for big parties with the ability to “conquer or retain power “.

In the mind of the urban voter especially, a candidate or party must either be able to conquer or retain power and outside of that smaller fringe parties stood and stand very little chance. In essence therefore it can be concluded that Zimbabwean voters have a bifocal voting lens which chooses to select any of the big two parties. This is also evidenced in the presidential elections where of the 23 candidates only Chamisa and Mnangagwa accounted for almost 95 % of the vote with the other 21 candidates sharing less than 5 % of the presidential vote. Even in the U.K, there are two main parties which are dominant namely the Conservatives and the Labour Party with the Liberal Democrats emerging in the last decade. In America it is largely a contest between the Republicans and the Democrats. It must be noted however that in both these two countries there is robust internal democracy which allows for competition within the parties. It will take a political evolution of ten to fifteen years for the Zimbabwean voter to become multi focal in their electoral choices. However, the bifocal and binary voting trends and patterns may continue well into the future with people then by virtue of political osmosis gravitating towards bigger political formations such as the M.D.C Alliance or ZANU P.F. This means the two parties have to be ready for an influx of new cadres trying to find credence and relevance within bigger formations as opposed to affiliation to smaller parties who may due to the obtaining bi focal political culture be unable to attract new cadres. The current first past the post system favours bigger parties and a system of full proportional representation would have been conducive for smaller interest based and regional parties.

The Rural – Urban Dichotomy

The results also clearly demonstrate that there is a dichotomy between the rural and urban electorate. ZANU P.F and Emmerson Mnangwagwa clearly dominated the rural areas whilst Nelson Chamisa dominated urban areas. This means there is need to understand the psyche and political electoral behaviour of the rural populace if for example Nelson Chamisa and the M.D.C Alliance is to stand any chance in the next elections. The rural voter is most probably concerned about livelihoods issues, issues of access to water, irrigation, food, cattle and so forth. This is accentuated by the fact that whilst basic geography dictates that in development patterns there is movement of people from rural areas to urban areas in Zimbabwe this has not been the case due to economic stagnation.

There must be a significant investment by the opposition in the future at understanding the rural voter and being relevant to the rural voter.

Dumisani O. Nkomo

Party -State Conflation Must Be Stopped

Party State Conflation Must Be Checked

Dumisani O. Nkomo

The late Father Zimbabwe Joshua Nkomo noted in his auto biography that he once asked the then Prime Minister of Zimbabwe, Robert Mugabe which was the supreme organ of the state and he stated to his great shock and horror Mugabe replied that the party and the central committee were the supreme organs in the country and the government was subservient to the party [Nkomo, The Story of My Life]. As we head towards the harmonized elections the divide between the state and the party continues to grow thinner and in many cases the state organs, structures, apparatus, events and processes have been diluted, engulfed in and swallowed by party processes. Quite clearly ZANU P.F seems quite happy to continue with the legacy of confusing and conflating the party and the state as it presents a clear electoral advantage. This is an ideology which they have consistently pursued since independence and this has contributed significantly to advantages of incumbency and unfair head starts in elections.

Candidate or Head of State

It is increasingly becoming difficult to distinguish between President Mnangwagwa as the head of state and government, and Emmerson Mnangagwa as the president and first secretary of Zanu P.F. It was clearly an oversight that in the 2013 Constitution there was failure to limit the tenure of the Head State to perhaps a month before the elections and possibly allow the Chief Justice to take charge of the country in the interim. Whilst the current arrangement is the case in most jurisdictions, our context where the party and the government relationship has been exceedingly abused it will be necessary in 2023 to have amendments that will ensure that any incumbent does not carry forward any electoral advantages. It has become next to impossible to distinguish between state events for example and party rallies as government resources and apparatus are being used for party processes.

Welfare and Food Interventions

It has become a norm for either sitting Presidents or their wives to distribute inputs, food, blankets and other hand-outs. I have no qualms about this as long as they are sourcing these freebies from their own pockets. However in many cases the source of the handouts is not revealed and in some cases programmes run by the department of social welfare for example are hijacked by the party for political purposes. Such was the case in Umzingwane Ward 5 recently when a Council aspirant from the ruling party hijacked a social welfare programme for political purposes and purported that is was a party programme.

Public officials who donate food, inputs and other freebies must declare the source of these donations as in many cases these are actually government or taxpayer funds and not an expression of the kindness or benevolence of politicians.

Government Vehicles

Election observers both local and international must be on the look out for government vehicles that are used or abused during political rallies either transporting officials, party functionaries or equipment to be used for the purposes of political meetings. This gives an unfair advantage to the political party in power whether it is ZANU P.F or M.D.C Alliance if they then win the 2018 elections.

Government Officials and apparatus

The Constitution in Section 200, out rightly outlaws civil servants abusing their offices for partisan ends [Zimbabwe Constitution]. Whilst they have a right to belong to a political party of their choice they must not in the discharge of their duties, demonstrate affiliation to political parties and in doing so disadvantage other political players and or violate the fundamental freedoms of citizens. Sadly senior government officials including District Administrators, Rural District Council officials and Heads of Government departments have become regular features at rallies especially those addressed by the President in his capacity as party president and those addressed by vice President Constantine Chiwengwa. This ultra vires the Constitution and urgent action needs to be taken to ensure that civil servants are not made to attend political rallies in their official capacities or do not out of their own volition playing  leading roles in organizing ZANU P.F or other political party events.

Traditional Leaders

In terms of both the Constitution and the Traditional Leaders Act, traditional leaders including Chiefs, Headmen and Village Heads are not allowed to engage in partisan politics. It has however become the norm to see them at political rallies organized by the ruling party and in some instances actively mobilizing people to attend party meetings. However due to the conflation of the party and government at times they themselves are not sure about the difference between state events where the President is presiding as Head of state and government and events where he presides as a leader of a political party and a candidate in the elections. Traditional leaders must not be seen at such events as the law clearly forbids them to do so. The allowances they receive are not due to the benevolence of the party but the obligation of a government which is accountable to the people who finance the government through taxes.

Conclusion

There must be a clear distinction between the party and the state resources, personnel and apparatus that belongs to the government must be used by and for government purposes for the good of the governed  regardless of political parties. Public officials must declare the source of donations especially if such donations are from government or are as a result of government actions or government to government actions. It is also imperative to ensure that once an election is proclaimed, candidates should be prohibited from doing out freebies. After all, if they are that benevolent they have over four years if not their entire lifetimes to do so. It is also abundantly clear that whilst the Constitution outlaws some practises which promote party/state conflation the absence of a culture of upholding the Constitution or constitutionalism is at the heart of this cardinal collective malpractice.

Presidential Elections- Kingmakers,Spoilers and Chancers

WHO WILL WIN THE ELECTIONS?

Dark Horses, Spoilers and Kingmakers

By Dumisani O. Nkomo

In last week’s instalment, I analysed the chances of President Emmerson Mnangagwa and Nelson Chamisa’s prospects in the 30 July Presidential race. In this instalment I will focus on the chances of four other contenders for the presidency but more importantly assess the extent to which they will have an impact on the votes that Nelson Chamisa and Emmerson Mnangagwa will ultimately get. This year Zimbabwe has a record of 23 Presidential candidates with the nature of candidates ranging from brilliant to bizarre but in a democracy such as ours “all things may be permissible but not all things may be beneficial “as the Apostle Paul notes in his letter to the Romans”.

Undoubtedly, the electorate with some of the candidates’ names and parties for the first time in the voting booth and what an experience it will be, with the novel possibility of having textbook size ballot paper or will it be ballot booklet. Nonetheless it is essential for the electorate to know the calibre, capacity, craft competence and probability of winning of the various candidates on offer.

Assumptions for Strong Candidature

In an ideal world the qualities and ability of prospective candidates is the sole determining factor but in a country such as ours which some define as an emerging democracy, others as a fragile democracy, yet others say it’s a glorified securocracy; it may be a pie in the sky to assume that a mericrocratic democracy [as Brett Chulu would call it] is a possibility. A democratic meritocracy captures the essence of electing leaders or having leaders that are elected or chosen on merit and not necessarily on popularity. Popularity may not necessarily denote or translate into what some scholars describe as “craft competence” or the ability to deliver based on the availability of key skills and competencies.

Some of the essential strengths and competencies that are required by political players, more so those contending for the Presidency require in the Zimbabwean context are the following:

1. Strong institutional presence and capacity epitomized by strong party structures at local level.

2. Institutional “vote harvesting” capacity evidenced by fielding of candidates countrywide so as to harvest as many votes as possible.

3. Relevance

4. Electoral appeal and charisma

5. Competence/ ability

6. Social media impact

7. Capacity to harness rural vote

8. Youth Appeal

If we to use the above as a basis of assessing the chances and impact of electoral candidates it then leaves four other candidates in contention to be either dark horses to win, possible spoilers, vote splitters and or king makers in the event of a run off. Those in contention outside of Mnangwagwa and Chamisa then become Joyce Mujuru, Thokozani Khuphe, Nkosana Moyo and Ambrose Mutinhiri. These four candidates will significantly impact on electoral choices and the electoral chances of the two main contenders as they will eat into or provide alternatives to the two.

Importantly, it must be noted that a presidential candidate who is backed by a part with a presence in all or most of the constituencies generally stands a better chance than candidate who does not have the backing of a party with candidates in all or most constituencies. The general assumption is that a Presidential candidate with at least 150 candidates contesting at house of assembly level and about a thousand at local government level has more chances of harnessing votes since the various candidates at various levels will probably also campaign and harness votes for the party’s presidential candidate or preferred Presidential candidate.

Joyce Mujuru’s People’s Rainbow Coalition has House of Assembly in all provinces and only trails the M.D.C Alliance and Zanu P.F in this regard who are contesting in 209 and 210 House of Assembly constituencies. Joyce Mujuru therefore stands a huge chance of harnessing a significant number of votes due to the institutional capacity of her party to carry her campaign at Ward and Constituency level. Her other strength is that she appears to be a mature alternative to Nelson Chamisa and has a better human rights record than Emmerson Mnangagwa as she was not out rightly fingered in human rights violations of the eighties in Matabeleland and the 2000 to 2008 violence. She has worked in government before as a vice President and was effective enough to warrant suspicions that she was a threat to former President Robert Mugabe’s throne. She will do well in the Mashonaland Central and probably Mashonaland East provinces in terms of number of votes. She will be a beneficiary of Zimbabwe’s ethnocentric politics as she belongs to the Zezuru tribe which has deep roots in the Mashonaland provinces. The country’s patrichal culture which has seen the number of women candidates dwindling due to intimidation, violence and vote buying in most of the major political parties may not significantly affect her as she has historically earned a reputation of being a leading liberation war hero and later on vice President of choice. She is mature and has characteristics of a statesperson.

Weakness

She lacks charisma and popular appeal and projects lack of intellectual depth. She has not clearly articulated her dream or vision for a Zimbabwe of the future unlike Chamisa and E.D. I am not referring to manifestoes here but an ability to intuitively paint a picture of the Zimbabwe we want whenever given the opportunity. She will thus not appeal to the youth who currently constitute up to about 45% of the electorate. She was a cabinet minister from the eighties and to claim ignorance of Mugabe’s political and economic genocide would denote lack of critical thinking.

She failed to emerge as the leading opposition figure after she left ZANU PF at a time when many where beginning to look for a third way and this may exhibit lack of assertiveness and political inertia. She stands a good chance of coming in as a dark horse and upsetting the top two contenders and at least diving the ZANU P.F vote. She would be a king maker in the event of a run off and both Chamisa and Mnangagwa may try to court her if she does not make it in the first round.

Thokozani Khuphe

The M.D.C – T led by Thokozani Khuphe is fielding candidates in most provinces with fewer candidates in Mashonaland Central and the Midlands probably due to political pacts with other parties, possibly the P.R.C. She has been an apparent victim of internal democracy weaknesses in the M.DC and has been subjected to verbal and physical abuse by her erstwhile foes. This however will not be sufficient in landing her the Presidency primarily because her party is not fielding candidates in all the House of Assembly constituencies and local government wards thus affecting her party’s institutional capacity to harvest or harness the necessary votes. Khuphe is an experienced politician however who has served in government and has a great record of developmental service. Her key weaknesses are lack of popular appeal and destitution of relevance due to the Chamisa momentum and the E.D juggernaut. The problem with momentum is that it may not necessarily install the best candidate but it gathers pace and power for whoever has reins over it and in this case it is Chamisa and E d Mnangagwa. Dr Thokozani Khuphe has a stately demeanour and would be a head of government but although this may be desirable this is highly unlikely. However, she lacks charisma and may not appeal to younger voters. She will be a victim of Zimbabwe’s tribal politics as a Ndebele. She has overcome the politics of patriachalism in the past and one hopes Zimbabwe rids itself off sexism and tribalism which have been blight on good leaders such as Khuphe, Priscilla Misihaimbwi to name a few. She will defiantly split the Chamisa vote and the confusion in the party names may work to her advantage. She cannot be wished away in an inclusive government or as a key ally in a run off.

Ambrose Mutinhiri

The reason why I place Mutinhiri and his fractured National Patriotic Front in the equation is because this party is fielding candidates countrywide and has enough internal knowledge of Zanu P.F to cause grief to Emmerson Mnangagwa and ZANU P.F. Obviously the main objective of the N.P. F is not to win the Presidential race but to ensure that E.D does not. Institutionally Mutinhiri will be buoyed by the party’s strength in Mashonaland Central and Mashonaland East and West which have a combined 1687692 number of registered voters. Robert Mugabe is still relatively popular in the Mashonaland provinces and this will add impetus to Mutinhiri. The former Zipra commander however lacks charisma, appeal, initiative and relevance.  His military background comes in handy in the face of rising securocratic politics in Zimbabwe and definitely ethnic politics will work in his favour. However, as I said his aim is not necessarily to win the elections but to be a spoiler and hopefully grab a number of House of Assembly seats. He will divide the ZANU P.F Presidential vote. His party is experiencing internal fractures which may weaken his chances substantially. He will be a spoiler in this election.

Space and time does not permit me to significantly analyse the chances of Dr Nkosana Moyo and will be an injustice to this great man to commit a paragraph to him. To this end I will look at his chances and indeed his role in the next instalment with the introductory challenge being his party’s inability to field sufficient house of assembly candidates which according to my theory of institutional presence and a capacity significantly affect his chances. Let me do justice to him however and analyse that in the next instalment.

Conclusion

If we are to stick to the theory that Presidential candidates who are contesting in the most number of constituencies generally stand a better chance than those who have fewer House of Assembly candidates, then it becomes a logical conclusion that the race may be between Emmerson Mnangwagwa and Nelson Chamisa with Joyce Mujuru as a dark horse, Khuphe as a king maker, Mutininhiri as a spoiler and Nkosana Moyo being brilliant Presidential candidate but with a better chance in 2023 or 2028.

Dumisani Nkomo is the Chief Executive Officer of Habakkuk Trust. He writes here in his personal capacity. He can be contacted  on email address – Dumisani.nkomo@gmail.com

Who Will Win 2018 Polls

Who Will Win 2018 Elections? Strengths and Weaknesses of Key Contenders

Dumisani O. Nkomo

The harmonized elections are barely a month away and aspirants of all persuasions are out in full force hugging babies, giving to the needy, launching openings of bins and promising everything to everyone as they desperately seek to sway public opinion and hopefully the popular vote in their way. It is becoming increasingly clear that the presidential race is becoming a two-way race in strong field of presidential candidates. It would be most desirable if no party had a two thirds majority in parliament and for the electorate to choose their preferred candidates on merit. However, election fever characterized by a propensity for electoral infatuation by both the aspiring candidates and the perspiring electorate may see people throwing reason out of the window and voting for parties which are most likely to win rather than candidates who can deliver. If this scenario obtains, the race will then become a two-man horse race between President Emmerson Mnangwagwa and Advocate Nelson Chamisa.  In this article I will explore the chances that these two candidates have and the external factors and other variables which will determine their chances in the presidential race. I will explore the chances of other aspirants such as Dr Thokozani Khuphe, Dr Mujuru, Dr Nkosana Moyo and others in subsequent instalments.

Recent opinion polls have suggested that the incumbent President Emmerson Mnangwagwa is likely to win the elections. However, there has been contesting views by numerous political analysists who have highlighted that there is a large number of people who have not indicated their preferred choice ahead of the 2018 Harmonised Elections.

I will briefly look into few factors that will work in favour of and against both candidates.

Emmerson Mnangagwa -Key Strengths and Advantages

1.     Incumbency

The cardinal advantage which Emmerson Mnangagwa has in this presidential race is that of the advantages of incumbency. As the current president of Zimbabwe ED Mnangagwa has to his personal advantage as a presidential candidate is access to information, resources and personnel which no other candidate has. The sitting president has a head start because he has control [albeit debatably] of the key organs of the  state  such as the army  and the civil service and to an extent the electoral process which on paper is run by an independent commission [ Z.E.C ] .The incumbent’s control of the entire security apparatus is questionable though as the police and the intelligence apparatus is not fully under his control but broadly and theoretically speaking they lie within the ambit of his influence or at least the purvey of the ruling party which of course should not be the case but in actual case has been the case under former president Robert Mugabe .

2.    Resources

It can further be denoted that Emmerson Mnangagwa as an incumbent has admittance to state machinery and financial support from countries such as China as well as funds form the Political Parties, just to name a few. The incumbent in addition to the already existing resources has also benefited from financial provisions that have been made under the auspices of the Finance Act, 2018 (No.1 of 2018) under which they and the leading opposition parties in parliament received a budget vote to jump-start the two political parties’ campaigns ahead of the 2018 Harmonised elections. Linked to this it can further be construed that ZANU PF and Mnangwagwa will also benefit from over 210 vehicles allocated to each parliamentary candidate in addition to the hundreds of other vehicles they have secured, it is also likely that state resources will be used or abused to aid Mnangwagwa ’s presidential bid.

3.     Control of Military

This of course is debatable especially after the recent bombing incident which transpired at White City Stadium in Bulawayo as it is not abundantly clear whether the president has full control of the security apparatus of the country in the manner Robert Mugabe did up to the 2013 elections. However, if we are to assume that he controls the military it then becomes very problematic and intuitively cumbersome for the opposition to dislodge him because of the militarization of many civilian institutions including the civil service. In 2008 the military played a major role in ZANU PF retaining power by foul or fair means.

4.    Control of State Media

The public media especially the Z.B C has continued to be an extension of the ruling party even with this being evinced by the constant coverage of the ruling party activities ahead of the 2018 Harmonised elections. However, in the last month or so efforts have been to decoratively open space.

5.     Opening of Space

The opening of space for political parties and civil society in terms of freedom of association has been quite clear and some may feel that indeed this is a new era and not a “new error “.

   Nelson Chamisa- Strengths and Competitive Advantages

1.    Charisma

Unlike his opponent Nelson Chamisa possesses a natural charism which is key for any election. This is an attribute which Robert Mugabe had and which Mnangwagwa does not have. He is able to relate to various audiences and effectively articulate issues at rallies  

2.    Generational Vote

Nelson Chamisa as a young person has the potential to appeal to the youth registrants as the majority of the registered voters are under the age of forty. Flipping on the other side of the coin this gain is also debatable because people do not vote in straight lines and there is a likelihood that some professionals may buy into Mnangagwa business rhetoric. However, the majority of Zimbabweans who will be voting were born after independence and will be keen to see a new leader with a new mandate taking over seeing that Mnangagwa has been in cabinet since 1980 and cannot absolve himself from failures of the Mugabe regime.

3.    Protest Vote

Chamisa will also benefit from the fact that there has not been any significant economic growth and improvement in service delivery. Besides the Zimbabwe is ready for business rhetoric there is no actual tangible change that can attest to a new era. Admittedly space has opened up and roadblocks have disappeared but economically the cash crisis persists and long bank queues are the order of the day. Economic growth takes time as we know but the people will judge a leader by what he has promised and by the economic deliverables they see. To this extent Chamisa may gain from the protest vote arising from economic conditions

Further enunciated below are the weaknesses and the possible threats that can work against the two prominent presidential candidates ahead of the 2018 Harmonised elections:

Presidential Candidate – Emmerson Mnangagwa

1.         The incumbent paralleled to his opponent lacks charisma

2.         Failed attempts to curb corruption

3.         A Botched First Hundred-day plan

4.         Internal threat of the former G40 elements many of whom won in ZANU PF this may result in the “bhora musango “phenomenon with ZANU PF elements voting for ZANU PF Members of parliament and councillors whilst voting for an opposition candidate for presidential elections.

5.         Emergence of the National Patriotic Front which may split the ZANU PF vote especially the Mashonaland Provinces.

6.         Fissures resulting from the conduct of primary elections may result in the increase of ZANUP.F supporters and disgruntled candidates mobilizing against official party candidates and the official party candidate

7.         Lack of control of entire security apparatus especially the police and intelligence services.

8.         The past will continue to haunt Mnangwagwa as his role in the Matabeleland Massacres will continue to haunt him and so will his alleged involvement in the 2008 election violence.  

Presidential Candidate - Nelson Chamisa

1.Internal fissures as a result of weak internal democracy and results of primary elections. This may result in some party supporters voting for M.D.C T led by Khuphe, Nkosana Moyo and Dr Mujuru.

2.Perceptions of immaturity.

3.High sounding promises which the electorate may feel are unattainable.

4.Lack of consistent messaging – Whilst E.D Zimbabwe’s open for business mantra is clear and consistent Chamisa on the other hand has not been very consistent in articulating what he stands for and appears to change his messaging depending on where he is or who he is addressing. This as a result can be a strength but can be construed as a weakness.

5.Lack of resources – Unlike previous elections there are little resources for opposition parties and Chamisa party in particular.

6.A clear threat to Chamisa’s chances will be the military’s willingness to roll over and allow an opposition candidate to win after having conducted military takeover or more precisely a coup. The establishment is unlikely to let this happen.

7.Confusion arising from the party name as many especially in rural areas may not know the difference between the M.D C Alliance and the M.D.C – T.

In the final analysis it will be a very closely contested battle  and the above factors will play a key role in determining who wins the elections. As to who will win I leave it to the reader based on the above factors and other variables.

Dumisani Nkomo is the Chief Executive Officer of Habakkuk Trust. He is also the vice chairperson of the Zimbabwe Election Support Network. He writes here in his personal capacity and views shared here are not a reflection of the views of any of the above organizations .He can be contacted on dumisani .nkomo@gmail.com  .

Devolution Has Worked In Other Countries

Devolution Has Worked In Other Countries

By Dumisani O. Nkomo

It has been widely and wildly postulated that devolution of power is divisive, unviable economically and impractical in small countries . In this instalment I would like to argue that devolution of power is a system of government which has been implemented successfully in African , European and Asian countries big and small with tremendous economic as well as developmental dividends .

Definition

Perhaps it would be helpful to define devolution and differentiate it from other systems of governance .Devolution can be defined as “the statutory delegation of powers from the central government of a state to a sub-regional or local level “.In the United Kingdom which has implemented devolution of power for  a while devolution is defined as “the statutory granting of powers from the  parliament of the United Kingdom to the Scottish parliament and the National Assembly of Wales “

Devolution of power is a concept of ensuring that legislative and executive power is shared and distributed to different levels or tiers of government. In South Africa power is devolved at provincial and municipal level to 9 provinces and 278 municipalities. The rationale of devolving power to multiple levels of government is to primarily ensure that:

1.Citizens participate in decision-making through level governance structures

2.Service delivery is accessible

3.Government is closer to the people

4.Greater accountability an transparency in resource and public finance management.

5.Effective and effective revenue collection

Other African countries that have embraced devolution of power include Kenya with its system of devolving power to 47 counties. Constitutions which recognize and affirm devolution include countries such as Uganda [1995] ,Nigeria [ 1999].South Africa [1996] and in theory Zimbabwe [2013] . Swaziland has its own brand of devolution under it’s Tinkundla system of governance in the country’s five regions . To  a large extent devolution has worked very well in Kenya with development being felt in different parts of the country . This is not to say that the system is perfect as nothing before heaven is perfect.

In Europe there exist numerous examples of countries which have embraced devlolution of power amongst them the Netherlands , Italy ,France ,Switzerland  Spain as well as Nordic countries Denamrk and Finland .Interestingly the Netherlands devolves power to two states and two provinces .Denmark with a population of 5,6 million and Finland with a population of 5,4 million are examples of countries which are smaller than Zimbabwe but have well devolved models of governance .The Swiss Canton system is well documented as a paragon of good governance .

Devolution of power  to other tiers or levels or layers of government does not necessarily require constitutional amendments but may find expression in laws which transfer power to provincial and municipal level for example . In Zimbabwe Chapter 14 of the constitution already provides a sound constitutional framework for devolution but what is needed  is  specific laws which transfer legislative and executive powers to provincial and local government level .Laws that would need to be aligned to reflect or entrench a devolved model of governance are laws that govern public finance , natural resources , public tenders ,civil service employment . Importantly a law regulating the relationship and interrelationship between the different tiers or layers of government has to be put in place in order to ensure that there is no conflict between central government , provincial government and local government but rather complementarity subsists .

Devolution of power is actually a very mild form of distributing power away from the centre to the margins as systems used in the United States , Canada and Australia are more federal in nature with states having power legislatively ,  judicially and executively with the Federal governments only dealing with Defence , Homeland Security and international relations . The Zimbabwean model actually envisages devolution with a “unitary ‘system as opposed to a “Federal system . The merits or demerits of a unitary system or a federal system are arguments best reserved for another day and possible another instalment. However it remains very clear that a devolved system of governance would work very well in Zimbabwe in order to address issues of disproportionate  and uneven development , lack of citizen participation , deficiency bottom up development and an absence of  innovative service delivery .

In South Africa the devolved system of governance has seen the devolved entities self funding 85 %of their costs thus dismissing the notion held by some that devolution of power is expensive .

Devolution of power is a system of government that has worked well in Europe , Africa and Asia .It is a not a perfect model but we can use lessons from Kenya and South Africa to develop  a model of devolution which is relevant to and responsive to the Zimbabwean context .In other words we can develop a devolution model made in our own image as Zimbabweans but borrowing from the experiences of other countries .

Mayibuye I – Devolution

Dumisani O. Nkomo is the Chief Executive Officer of Habakkuk Trust . He writes here in his personal capacity . He is a thought leader , writer ,content producer

Impediments To Service Delivery

Impediments To  Good Service Delivery

By Dumisani O. Nkomo

Provision of basic services is the primary function of local authorities but tragically most local authorities have failed to deliver on their mandate for a multiplicity of reasons which I will explore in this instalment. Local authorities have not been alone in failing to deliver services as statutory bodies tasked with service delivery have been complicit in their failure to ensure that citizens enjoy sound service delivery. The service delivery basket includes provision of water , electricity, sewer reticulation ,health services , education ,mobile phone services and increasingly internet service provision .

To this extent the ambit of service delivery then includes entities such as the Zimbabwe Water Authority, the Zimbabwe Electricity Supply  Authority companies ,the  Zimbabwe National Roads Authority to name a few . One can actually argue that the Zimbabwe Police Service as it is named in the constitution is a major service provider in terms of providing security for the citizens of the country. However, for this specific article I will focus on local authorities and in subsequent instalments I will major on other statutory service providers

It is important to understand, interrogate and fully grasp the underlying reasons why there has been such a significant failure to provide services. In order for one to have their ailment treated it is essential to understand the causes of the sickness   through a diagnosis and thereafter it becomes easy to provide a prognosis or forecast on what should be done to remedy the illness. The same applies to service delivery as failure to understand the undergirding reasons will result in wrong prescriptions being given. Service delivery includes abroad spectrum of supply side processes which respond to demand side imperatives driven by consumers who in this case are residents and rate payers. The following are reasons for poor service delivery.

Narrow / Inadequate Revenue base

Most local authorities in both urban and rural areas in Zimbabwe are affected by very narrow revenue bases which largely if not wholly rely on rates, fees, levies , taxes charged to residents . This is unsustainable in an economy such as ours were unemployment is at over 80%. Since most residents are unable to pay such rates and levies which are due this adversely affects the capacity of local authorities to deliver vital services. Since the revenue base of local authorities is disproportionately based on already stressed ratepayers inevitably councils then suffer from low incomes and low expenditure on capital projects . Capital projects including construction of infrastructure is essential in driving local economies as there are numerous downstream effects such as creation of jobs as well growth of related feeder industries such as steelmaking, glassmaking etc. .

It is thus imperative for both rural and urban local authorities to explore the opening up of alternative revenue streams so as to tap resources for service delivery from a broader economic base . Currently residents are largely unable to solely provide a ready and reliable revenue base for councils. There must be concerted effort by local authorities to engage residents on the importance of paying their bills including this writer by the way ] so that residents understand the relationship between service delivery and payment of bills .Local authorities must also explore broadening of revenue streams beyond already stressed residents .

2.Misplaced Priorities

A lot of local authorities spend precious resources on luxury items at the expense of service delivery . Mayoral mansions and luxury vehicles are an example of how local authorities fail to prioritize service delivery .Some councillors are known to be more seized with the size of their allowances than with provision of services  for citizens . This is a direct result of councillors who have no business being in council chambers but are rather “accidentally elected from the ranks of the unemployed. Instead of these councillors pursuing the interests of the people they end up selfishly vigorously pursuing self-interest in a desire for economic survival .

Corruption

The scourge of corruption has continued to erode the ability and capacity of some local authorities  in particular in issues relating to tender processes .Corruption increases the cost of services and   some municipalities procure service delivery equipment which is below standard thus affecting long term service delivery .In  rural district councils some local authorities have been fingered in failure to filter proceeds from the Communal Areas Management Programme For Indigenous Resources [Campfire ] to communities .

Institutional Culture

The culture of customers as kings/queens  is rapidly vanishing as in this respect residents are consumers of services and should be treated as kings and queens  .However in many instances employees of municipalities  treat residents with contempt as if these services are privileges bestowed by benevolent municipalities and not rights .Service delivery at time is not about provision about hard services but access to information  , responsiveness and simple courtesy . The past fifteen years has been epitomized by a general negative work ethic as a result of the economic crisis . This has affected the quality of service delivery.

Solutions

1.Local authorities must explore the creation of alternative revenue streams beyond burdening financially stressed residents and ratepayers.

2.Residents and corporate citizens must pay their rates, levies and taxes.

3.Residents must elect quality councillors who know the role of the local authority. Quality does not just refer to academic qualifications but includes leadership track record, capacity.

4.Elcetd councillors must declare their assets before taking office and account for the property they have acquired at the end of their tenure.

5.Strenthening of policies that deal with corruption and fraud at municipal level.

6.Use of technology to enhance service delivery. Municipalities can track and enhance service delivery needs through the use of Geographical Information Systems and other technological innovations, packages and systems. It is no longer necessary to physically travel to Canada to learn about service delivery when the information gap has been closed by technology.

7.Promotion of local economic development through frameworks for Public Private Partnerships

8.Devolving power to local authorities to ensure that municipalities are responsive to the service delivery needs of citizens

9.Creating space for demand side engagement by promoting the role of residents’ associations and other interest based organizations and movements.

10 . Continuous training of municipal staff in customer care, public relations and citizen engagement

Having said this, I have come across many municipal workers and managers who have exhibited professionalism and a progressive work ethic and I urge these to continue with this attitude.

Mayibuye !

Dumisani O. Nkomo Is the Chief executive Officer  of Habakkuk Trust . He writes here in his personal capacity