By Dumisani O. Nkomo
Elections are inevitability in the next 20 months and it is critical to analyse the state of preparedness of the contesting parties, aspirants and candidates. Undoubtedly Morgan Richard Tsvangirai poses the biggest threat to President Robert Mugabe 3 decade long reign having beaten the geriatric politician in the March 2008 elections. Can Morgan Tsvangirai do it again? Will the resurgent Welshman Ncube post a surprise or upset the political electoral order. Have Simba Makoni and his Mavambo Project become irrelevant and what are the chances of Dumiso Dabengwa and his Zapu. Will ZANU P.F grab victory from the jaws of defeat by posting another Houdini Act through hook or crook? What factors will determine who wins the next elections and how have the various political players performed in the last 12 months. This article will specifically analyze the M.D.C T and its chances in the elections and subsequent articles will focus on other parties and personalities.
I would like to suggest that since, empirically the M.D.C-T stands the most realistic chance of defeating Mugabe and ZANU P.F it is therefore essential to critically evaluate this party and subject it to objective critical analysis. One problem with our body politic and the “progressive democratic movement “is the inability to truthfully critique “progressive political movements” as it is feared one could lose political favour and or funding. It has therefore become fashionable to turn a blind eye to the misdemeanours of either the M.D.C –T or its leader Morgan Tsvangirai. This is to the detriment of the M.D.C T and Tsvangirai himself since it is folly to surround oneself with praise singers, ZANU P.F style .There is a general fear of not being included in the next government or falling out of favour with some supporting partners if one dares to criticise the M.D.C –T and its leader. I would argue that this is against the very principles of the post independence struggle against ZANU P.F tyranny and misrule. Surely we are breeding another ZANU P.F insulating Tsvangirai and M.D.C T from valid and constructive criticism as should be the norm in any democracy .The following factors could militate against the electoral success of the M.D.C-T and Morgan Tsvangirai.
The M.D.C –T whilst having a long history of fighting oppression, corruption and misrule has itself been accused of being a replica of ZANU P.F .The party’s elective processes at various provinces especially Bulawayo could have made any ZANU P.F stalwart green with envy. Internal violence, factionalism and allegations of electoral impropriety were the order of the day and it remains to be seen whether the wounds of the past will heal. This has been accentuated by allegations of corruption against local authorities run by the M.D.C –T ,lack of financial probity in managing the constituency development fund by some M.P’s and poor service delivery in several city ,town and rural councils .All these issues have severely dented the democratic credentials of the M.D.C –T and could impact the party negatively if no remedial action is taken .To its credit the party has set up committees to track the performance of local authorities under its control .The M.D.C-T still has a lot to do to build its democratic credentials or risk being labelled as another ZANU P.F in waiting as it has failed to prove how fundamentally different it is from ZANU P.F .If the party fails to nourish ,nature and cultivate internal democracy it risks losing some of its members to rival political parties .
The erosion of the democratic credentials of the M.D.C –T could culminate in either voter apathy or loss of support to other political formations .In the broader scope of things the loss of democratic credential could have marginal or negligible impact as current Zimbabwean politics is not about the quality of policies or leaders but personalities .
Complacency
The level of complacency in the M.D.C –T is spectacularly shocking as the party seems to think people will vote for it and Morgan Tsvangirai merely because they are who they are. The M.D.C led As has been noted by observers almost the entire top six in the M.D.C –T slots have senior government posts including the vice president ,the national chairman ,the secretary general ,deputy secretary general, the national organizing secretary and the party spokesperson who is a COPAC co-chairperson and is involved with issues to do with constitutional reform most of the time. Ncube’s M.D.C have the vice president , the chairman, the organizing secretary and the spokesperson focussing on party issues whilst the ZANU P.F chairman Simon Khaya Moyo is not a cabinet member .
Shockingly the M.D.C T does not seem to be actively preparing for elections and appears to have left the “people” to just vote for them.
Factionalism and Challenges of Internal Democracy
If the M.D. C –T fails to deal with issues of factionalism whether in Bulawayo ,Midlands South and North , Mashonaland West the party may face a rude awakening in the presidential and parliamentary elections. There is likelihood that whilst Morgan Tsvangirai may do well in the presidential elections the M.D.C-T may lose ground in the parliamentary and local government elections. Factionalism is likely to increase as candidates are elected or selected for the elections. Beneficiaries of the confusion of factionalist politics will include Ncube’s M.D.C, ZANU P.F and possibly ZAPU .
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There is need for the M.D.C .T to develop a clear governance agenda which will dovetail with their election manifesto .It is not sufficient anymore to blame Mugabe for everything without proffering any solutions .In short the M.D.C –T has to move from merely opposing to proposing and thus project itself as a party that can actually rule Zimbabwe. From a purely factual point of view fringe parties such as M.D.C –Ncube, Mavambo and ZAPU seem to have more ideological clarity than the MD.C –T which does not appear to have a consistent position about anything be it elections, the content of the constitution, indigenization, targeted measures /sanctions and the emotive Matabeleland issue as my friend Zenzele Ndebele puts it. It is not enough to ride on the protest vote anymore especially if that vote does not seem to be translating into credible alternative governance or leadership.
Issues which may prove costly to the M.D.C-T ‘s campaign include homosexuality ,indigenization and the Matabeleland issue .The party also has to deal with internal decadence and erosion of democratic values and practise ,corruption and factionalism if it is to defeat ZANU P.F in the elections .
However the M.D.C –T’s biggest strength is its national appeal ,is proven capacity to defeat ZANU P.F and Mugabe in an election as well as its propensity for drama or rather melo drama whenever it is attacked by ZANU P.F. Blunders made by Tsvangirai and the M.D.C –T may thus be construed as acts of sabotage and infiltration by ZANU P.F or state security agents .Tsvangirai may therefore benefit from “victimist “politics which is popular in Africa casting him in the Shakespearean mould of a “man more sinned against than sinning “ and therefore the perfect candidate for the tragic hero in the unfolding drama of Zimbabwean politics.
I will focus on Welshman Ncube’s M.D.C in my next instalment.
Dumisani is a political analyst and Chief Executive Officer of Habakkuk Trust. He writes here in his personal capacity. He can be contacted on dumisani.nkomo@gmail.com
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