ZIMBABWEAN ELECTIONS –CONTENDERS ,PRETENDERS AND NO HOPPERS

By Dumisani O Nkomo        

In the March 2008 harmonized elections Morgan Tsvangirai defeated Robert Mugabe and Simba Makoni in the presidential elections .The two M.D.C formations mustered marginally more seats than ZANU P.F .The big question on everybody’s mind is whether Morgan Tsvangirai can win the next elections again or whether  Professor Welshman Ncube  is  a serious contender  to the presidential throne ?Is he a refreshing alternative to both Robert Mugabe and Morgan Tsvangirai or will he just split the vote which would have resulted in the defeat of Robert Mugabe and ZANU P.F ?Does Morgan Tsvangirai have the capacity and ability to build on the March 2008 victory or has he lost ground to the geriatric political craftsman in the form of President Robert Mugabe ?In the first place are there any substantive issues at stake in the next elections or the main agenda is regime change or retention of the old ZANUP.F order ?I will attempt to answer some but not all of these questions in the hope that they will lead to some critical debate and rationale discourse .

WHAT ARE THE NEXT ELECTIONS ABOUT

The next elections will literally determine whether ZANU P.F will be  part of the future or it will be cast in the dustbin of history ,there to find companionship with Zambia ’s former ruling party UNIP, the Malawi Congress Party and the Kenya African National Union .In the same vein if the M.D.C T fails to win the next elections the party will implode in the next five years and give way to a third way or is it the  fourth way which will replace the M.D.C T as the largest opposition party and more importantly the next government .This would probably take place in the 2018 elections .

Welshman Ncube and his M.D.C remain a dark horse and their greatest strength is their underdog status .However the next elections are crucial to Ncube in the sense that if the party is buried in an electoral avalanche or  landslide it may fade into oblivion and be completely submerged by the M.D.C T .If ZAPU decides to contest their claim to political legitimacy and indeed relevance ,existence and effectiveness may be eroded if the party is totally decimated in the elections  .The other political parties such as the Mavambo Kusile Project ,M.D.C 99 and company may be reduced to electoral paraphernalia decorating the electoral contest  but not making a meaningful impact .

In a sense therefore the next elections will determine the continued relevance and existence of these political players .The next elections are thus defining to the political destinies of all the electoral aspirants ,contenders and pretenders .

ZANU P.F ‘S Survival Strategy

ZANU P.F survival strategists realize that if they fail to adapt through use of force ,political fraud or reform they will be fossilized and become glorified later day dinosaurs  .Some in ZANU P.F prefer the tried and tested tactics of using force ,both physical and structural .Others  prefer to rebrand the party as a people’s party that can win an election using populist policies such as indigenization which appeal not only to the unemployed masses but also the urban elite ,the “new poor “ and intellectuals .

ZANU P.F.’s chances of  winning the elections are however slim unless they  resort to   to mass organized political violence  or outright rigging .The party is capable of both .

The M.D.C T

The M.D.C –T will be hoping that their incumbency in the government works in their favour .They would want to use their presence in  the inclusive government to push their own agenda and out muscle ZANU P.F were they can .The Quasi fiscal operations of the Reserve Bank which some claimed was used to oil ZANU P.F ‘s campaign machinery in the 2008 elections have been checked by Finance Minister Tendai Biti .Similarly thousands of ZANU P.F youths  who were on the Public Service payroll have been removed thus compromising the ZANU P.F election machinery  .Prime Minister Morgan Tsvangirai has also used his presence in government to access areas which he previously had no access to .There is little indication though that the M.D.C T  has extended its influence to the embedded securocrats who effectively jettisoned Mugabe into power in 2008 .Beyond this the M.D.C T seems to be counting on the protest vote and the unpopularity of  ZANU P.F .

M.D.C Ncube

After a series of defections from his party Welshman Ncube appeared to be headed for the doldrums. The Professor however proved that he was a worthy contender when he bounced back by launching a massive grassroots campaign countrywide  which is likely to bear more fruit in Matabeland .His ministers in the inclusive government have also done fairly well and this could swing a few votes in his party’s favour .He however has to battle against a polarized political environment which has sucked in the media ,sections of civil society and part of the international community .Obviously Ncube and his party will not win the elections but they will put up a spirited performance and possibly hold the balance again in parliament .Ncube’s strategy would also be to swing the historic protest vote in Matabeland in his favour ,something which may not be beyond  his capacity .He will also try and appeal to the middle class and rationale vote or the undecided “majority “.

ZAPU and Dabengwa

ZAPU and Dabengwa caused a few political tremors in the first past of last year but the party has quickly fizzled away and lost the momentum to Welshman Ncube in Matabeleland .ZAPU appears to have ideological clarity but it is desperately broke and may have no resources to mount a serious electoral challenge .Elections in this day and age require  massive investment  in campaign strategies and resources and the party appears to have neither in spite of its huge support base in the Diaspora .An alliance between ZAPU and M.D.C led by Ncube is most likely to occur as the parties are likely to fish from the same electoral pond .

Conclusion

A broad alliance of progressive political parties encompassing the M.D.C.T ,the M.D.C and ZAPU is the most desirable scenario but at the moment this appears to be unlikely .It will take exceptional statesmanship ,humility and maturity to get to this level .

Mayibuye

Dumisani O .Nkomo is the chief executive officer of Habakkuk Trust –he writes here in his personal capacity .He can be contacted on dumisani.nkomo@gmail.com