The Best Presidential Candidate

Who Should Be President –Key Qualities By Dumisani O. Nkomo Elections are upon us like a thief and it is imperative for Zimbabweans to be clear about what kind of person they want to lead the country .It would be critical for citizens ,the media and civil society to be debating on what kind of president we need as a country at this time .It is also critical for people to interrogate the ideas and issues which the presidential candidates are bringing to the electoral table .My article will thus not focus on individuals contesting in the elections but rather what kind of individuals should occupy the office of the president .People will then be free to pass their own judgements and make their own choices depending on whether their preferred candidates pass this test or indeed other tests as this template is by no means exhaustive Presidential Candidates The person who is elected as the next president of Zimbabwe must be somebody who is capable of steering the country from economic stagnancy to the path of sustainable economic growth epitomized by increased investor confidence translating to direct foreign investment .This will lead to increased to economic activity culminating in job creation .The new president must also be able to harness the rich economic potential which the country has already in the form of bountiful mineral reserves , and resource .The president should be somebody who has a vision of a Zimbabwe of the future and not necessarily be fixated with the past .The president should be in touch with global economic ,social ,political and developmental trends .He or she but unfortunately there was no woman who submitted her name must be a person who is in touch with the people ,in touch with reality and emerging governance trends .This is tragic because many African leaders are obsessed with the past ,obsessed with themselves and obsessed with accumulating wealth at the expense of the masses . The head of state and government should be more than a politician but also a statesman who is able to inspire support from various stratas of Zimbabwean community including diverse political parties ,government institutions ,the business sector ,churches ,traditional leaders and the citizenry .The president should be a person of integrity ,this is not to say that he or she should be a paragon of virtue as a president is not called to sainthood but governance .Morality is important but should not be a sole determinant as this is an election for a president not a pope .A president should thus be morally responsible but this alone is enough as other skills and competencies are needed to govern a country . Whilst Nicollo Machiavelli postulates that the leader or the Prince as he refers to the leader must “be feared rather than loved “, I would like to say that the leader should be loved and not feared .He or she must not be a person who personalises state institutions and processes but subjects himself or herself to democratic processes .The president must not be a lion but rather an eagle that is able to identify future challenges and take the country forward. The president must be a person who respects the constitution and constitutional processes .Those who aspire to the office of president should thus have a record in respecting their own party constitutions and processes. The president must be able to distinguish between the party and the government and not confuse or fuse the two as the two are separate and distinct .The party may have the mandate to rule but it governs on behalf of all Zimbabweans .A president should thus be able to inspire support and confidence from Zimbabweans from across the political,racial ,gender and ethnic divide . The quality of the presidential aspirant should be measured by what is constitutionally required of a president which includes but is not limited to : Upholding and defending the constitution, conferring awards ,appointing and receiving diplomats ,oversight over foreign policy etc .The head of state also declares war and peace in accordance with social the constitution .All this means the president should have mix or be imbued with social entrepreneurship ,political acumen and craft competence in leadership . Zimbabwe need s a president with the integrity of Daniel and the vision of Joseph [both bible characters for the purposes of the spiritually uninitiated].He or she but since we have concluded that current reality dictates that the person will be a he should be like a son of Isaac –who understands the times and understands what should be done [1 Chronicles 12:32 ] .The president should not be obsessed with making war and love but peace and stability . The citizenry should be able to decipher clearly what a president has to offer and how they proffer to make their vision into policy ,policy into reality .Our electoral politics is bereft and destitute of substance but focuses on peripheral issues of ethnicity and personality .In a proper democracy the presidential candidates should be summoned to live electoral debates beamed on national television and radio both state and private .They should clearly articulate their party manifestoes and justify why people should vote for them .This will only be possible with a media that is non partisan [both private and state ] .Elections should be a contest of ideas and ideologies not just personalities .This is not to say the country necessarily needs rocket scientists to take it forward as wisdom can be learned but not taught. Let us scrutinize the quality of presidential candidates, the quality their party manifestoes, the quality of the ideas and not just be carried away by the quantity of people making noise on their behalf as nations are ruled by ideas not noise .Admittedly this may only be relevant to future elections as our electoral democracy is still evolving and growing .The tragedy of politics is the fact that the most popular politician may not necessarily be the best man or woman for the job.

Attempted Political Suicide

ZANU P.F ‘S ATTEMPTED SUICIDE

 By Dumisani O Nkomo

The disastrous attempt by ZANU P.F to unilaterally declare the 31^st of July 2013 as the election date has proven to be an act of unprecedented suicide by the former ruling party which had to bear the indignity of a colossal diplomatic defeat in Maputo at the hands of the M.D.C formations .Whilst observers have noted that ZANU P.F shot itself on the foot my opinion is that they shot themselves on the head and not the foot.

SADC Diplomatic Defeat

The SADC Extra ordinary summit on Zimbabwe was in itself a huge diplomatic defeat for Robert Mugabe and  ZANU P.F in that in the first place the party fought tooth and nail to ensure that the summit did not happen .They tried to delay the summit as it became clear that they were not ready for  the regional body and the subsequent resolutions that emanated from there .Reports clearly indicate that Professor Welshman Ncube floored and mauled ZANU P.F with a polished and eloquent presentation focussing on the legal morass brought about by the unilateral declaration by Mugabe. He was ably assisted by Morgan Tsvangirai who made a mature and stately presentation. Mugabe had clearly identified Ncube as an obstacle and had tried to isolate him from the meetings of the principals and the summit proved why as the man was simply on fire and; an earlier tag team with Tsvangirai would have long resulted in reforms and results .Tsvangirai on the other hand found a worthy tag team partner and must be kicking himself as to why he sided with Mugabe in sidelining Ncube  who has proved to be a political colossus on the negotiating table

Regional Isolation

The SADC resolutions which included the  immediate annulling of   Mugabe’s fast tracked “ reforms” or is it “deforms “to the electoral  laws through presidential powers and the need to pass the laws through parliament .Importantly Minister Patrick Chinamasa was asked to approach the Constitutional Court to seek an extension to the election date and  SADC also demanded reforms to AIPPA and POSA .Quite clearly SADC is taking a hard line stance to ZANU P.F ‘s  chicanery and the ailing ruling party is being increasingly isolated in the region  .

International Attention

The election quagmire has not only attracted the attention of SADC but also the African Union which has already dispatched an observer mission .This means it may be very difficult for ZANU P.F to engage in open acts of unilateralism or overt violence .They have invited the international community to one’s again focus on Zimbabwe and in doing so scored a spectacular own goal.

Uniting Enemies

The unilateral act by Mugabe has brought the country’s opposition parties together  with the M.D .C-T,M.D.C , Z.A.P.U and Mavambo Kusile Project coming together to condemn Mugabe’s actions .Much to ZANU P.F ‘S  horror  their actions have culminated in the possibility of an electoral pact between the opposition parties .This would surely seal the party’s electoral pact and dissipate their chances in the Presidential and parliamentary elections .Although most of the parties have concluded their primary elections for parliament and local government an electoral pact continues to be an unfolding reality .All of a sudden the opposition political parties or rather the former opposition parties have been united because of ZANU P.F unilateralism  .They have calculated that they can only deal with the former liberation movement by combining their energy and effort .ZANU P.F ‘S  actions can thus be described as attempted political suicide as the key strategy in politics is to ensure that you keep your opposition divided .

Division in ZANU P.F

It must be borne in mind that ZANU P.F like any political or social entity is not homogenous but is composed of various interest groups ,factions ,differing personalities and so forth .Not surprisingly not everyone in ZANU P.F was and is for an early action for various and different reasons .Surprisingly in spite of their bravado and apparent misplaced Dutch courage ZANU P.F  is the only party of the inclusive government parties which still  has not held primary elections .Their only known candidate is the 89 year old Robert Mugabe  .

However the primary elections within the party which are due on Wednesday the 26^th ,have resulted once more in rampant factionalism and open defiance of  party directives .Allegations of candidate imposition and double standards have marred  the ZANU P.F  Primary elections process which had to be postponed by the party’s national chairman Simon Khaya  Moyo .

All this commotion within the ruling party has been caused by a rushed decision which has intensified factionalism and the battle for succession within the party.

Whilst some argue that ZANU P.F played everybody a dummy by getting everybody to focus on the dates of the elections and the legal conundrum surrounding the issue whilst they would then focus on grassroots mobilization there is no evidence of this as the proclamation and political panic generated by the election date saga has caused more organized confusion in the ZANU P.F camp.

Undoubtedly ZANU P.F is becoming increasingly isolated and is almost entirely dependent on the state security apparatus and control of key state organs for continued political survival.

Dumisani O. Nkomo is an activist and opinion leader

Ten Ways of Rigging An Election

Ten Ways of Rigging An Election

By Dumisani O. Nkomo

The country heads for historic elections in the next few months and I would like to throw a few thoughts on how elections can be rigged .It is also interesting to note that rigging is not the preserve of ZANU P.F but even some opposition parties have mastered the art as well judging from accusations from some people who lost in their parties primary elections .However this article looks at how the current system can be used to rig elections in favour of ZANU P.F which has been accused of rigging elections from as far back as 1980 .As to whether there is substance to this, is another story altogether and the subject of an entirely different article .

 

Voter Registration

Whilst on paper voter registration appears to be going on well with two phases of registration being done, voter registration  has  been done in such a manner  that registration centres are concentrated in ZANU P.F strongholds  whilst limiting numbers in opposition strongholds .This means more ZANU P.F supporters will be registered to vote in the elections

Aliens

The so called aliens will experience difficulties in practising their right to vote as it may take time for their citizenship to be regularized in the next 75 days .An early election [31 July ] or even 14 August will be too early for them to have dealt with the administrative hurdles of rectifying their new citizen status .Once again thousands of voters most of whom would have voted for the opposition will be disenfranchised  .It is a fact that most migrant labourers from Zambia and Malawi were employed in then thriving industries ,mines and the rail sector but after the economic collapse presided over by ZANU P.F  most of them will vote for the alternative to ZANU P.F

Soldiers

Many soldiers will be forced to apply for special votes which is a status usually given to members of the uniformed forces who are on duty and are not in their normal places of residence .They may be forced to vote in barracks and camps under compulsion from their superiors and if monitoring is weak they will be compelled to vote for ZANU P.F . This will swell ZANU P.F votes for both presidential and parliamentary elections

This coincides with the massive recruitment of new soldiers and policemen many of whom were previously unemployed and unemployable .Many of the new recruits may be bracketed under the category of special voters and this may result in manipulation of ballots .In the rural areas quasi police units such as the Neighbourhood Watch Committees [Ongxoza ]will be used not just to intimidate voters but  will also be compelled to vote in police camps .

Returning /Absentee Residents

Zimbabweans who are continuously  absent for a period of six  to twelve months may find themselves deleted from the voters roll and finding their way into supplementary voters’ roll which may be used for facilitating ghost voting  Zimbabweans resident in South Africa or Botswana  will be systematically frustrated at border posts resulting in few of them registering to vote or checking their names in the voters roll and consequently  in many being disenfranchised on voting day

Social Engineering

There has been in the past, massive social engineering typified by resettlement of  people to opposition strongholds  deliberately, systematically and purposefully .New ZANU P.F strongholds have been established in places such as Harare South ,Marula in Mangwe ,Insiza North ,Bubi ,Umguza just to name a few .This has been done through the creation of new settlements with the use of formal and informal processes such as resettlement ,allocation of land or stands .Urban settlements which are opposition strongholds have been a target for such activities with so called co-operatives getting stands and land  in previous opposition strongholds  .These new settlements owe their status ,rank and possessions to ZANU P.F and will vote for ZANU P.F

The population of army barracks, police camps and training depots will be swelled as a result of social engineering to boost ZANU P.F votes.

Special Voting

There remains great potential for special votes to be manipulated in favour of ZANU P.F .Special votes are usually votes cast by members of the uniformed forces after having applied to do so due the constraints of duty usually when serving members are deployed to places which are beyond their home areas. Members of the security forces may be intimidated into applying for special votes which may if monitoring is not thorough result in the voting process being skewed in favour of ZANU P.F  .Postal votes  will also be manipulated if there is poor monitoring .

Voter’s Roll

The Voter’s roll remains the single biggest potential source of rigging with allegations of ghost voters and the elimination of perceived oppossion supporters from the voters roll .This is not helped at all, as the process of maintaining the voters roll continues to fall under the office of the discredited Registrar General’s office which is seen by some as being partisan.

Security Sector

State security structures such as the old Joint Operations Command will campaign for ZANU P.F either covertly or overtly right up to ward and village level .The state security structures have in effect been fused with the structures of ZANU P.F and are being used to monitor and police activities of opposition parties and civil society organizations.

The large number of C.I.O. operatives, police and army members participating as candidates for ZANU P.F in the elections effectively means that state security organs will be manipulated to serve the interests of one political party in the elections.

Zimbabwe Electoral Commission and Registrar General’s office

The Zimbabwe Electoral Commission and the Registrar General’s office will be populated with security officers  all with the same mandate of maintaining the political status quo .These are just a few ways in which the elections may be rigged excluding counting ,collation, tallying, ballot stuffing ,multiple voting  etc which are used in other countries where political fraudsters use sophisticated techniques  .More brute methods such as vote buying through food aid and hand outs are already being used but these will largely fail because people just consume the food and vote for the opposition in many cases

However in spite of all these machinations ZANU P.F will lose to a united front of the two M.D.C ‘S even if they do rig the elections .It must be noted that not all members of the security forces are pro ZANU P.F as noted by Baba Jukwa in one of his /her /their instalments and the plan of using the army and police to manipulate the electoral process will fail.

 

Dumisani O Nkomo is an activist and opinion leader

He can be contacted on Dumisani .nkomo@gmail.com

Dumisani O Nkomo: Election Pact Between M.D.C Formations Essential

Dumisani O Nkomo: Election Pact Between M.D.C Formations Essential: Electoral Pact –ABSOLUTELY NECESSARY By Dumisani O. Nkomo Last year I suggested that an electoral pact is imperative and inevitabl...

Election Pact Between M.D.C Formations Essential

Electoral Pact –ABSOLUTELY NECESSARY

By Dumisani O. Nkomo

Last year I suggested that an electoral pact is imperative and inevitable having said since then there has been heated debate on the issues. I would like to categorically state that if the two M.D.C ‘s do not agree on such an arrangement chances of them losing to ZANU P.F are quite high. This arrangement would help in constructing a stable new economic and political architecture  in the post ZANU P.F era as the former presidential party is unable and or unwilling to capture international support and investor confidence .The two M.D.C ‘s should look at the greatest good for the greatest number of people and  this I believe would be an electoral pact which would enable them to field one candidate for the presidential elections and concur on candidates for parliamentary and local government elections .

Political Egos

The biggest impediment to an electoral pact between the two M.D C formations I not ideological as both parties are two dominant and separate social democratic entities .I would like to argue that in the current contestation; it is more about egos than about anything since both formations want to prove that they have political muscle and support . The M.D.C –T would like to prove that once and for all that it is the most dominant party by vanquishing the M.D.C led by Ncube and ZANU P.F. The M.D.C led by Professor Ncube would like to prove it has gained ground and is a king maker in Zimbabwean politics. In both  these assumptions the two parties are correct because political parties exists to contest for power and not to share  power necessarily. In a normal cases  political parties can also exist to defend and advance specific geo political ,socio-cultural ,economic or environmental interests .However in the context of Zimbabwe such a political architecture is a luxury we cannot afford and the political super structure in Zimbabwe provides no room for such luxuries .If the two parties continue to dilly dally ZANU P.F AND Mugabe will win the next elections confining  the two formations to history  as Zimbabwean   politics in five years time may will be quite different from current politics with the possible emergence of strong alternative  new political factors ,formations and voices ,with the possibility of a reformed ZANU P.F at best and a deformed one at worst .In essence this is the last chance for the MD.C.-T and Morgan Tsvangirai   to win  elections   and this could be the last time for Professor Ncube to continue being  relevant  to Zimbabwean politics .

The ZANU P.F FACTOR

In the same manner that the resurgence of Ncube’s M.D.C is undoubted ,the resurgence of ZANU P.F is a political reality for the following reasons :

Apathy

Apathy is likely to be a factor in the next elections as the electorate  is likely to have little motivation for voting  .Even then voter turn out is  likely  to  dwindle as it has for the past three elections .The protest vote on the other hand is unpredictable and may shrink  .The protest vote has also been affected by a massive exodus to the diaspora .

Secondly the Community Share Ownership Schemes and Indigenization  Programmes  whilst being  quite genocidal and suicidal for the economy may get ZANU P.F   few more votes especially in rural Mashonaland ,Manicaland ,Masvingo and a few pockets in Matabeleland .

This coupled  with dents to the brand of Morgan Tsvangirai in the past  year u to well documented policy inconsistencies  and personal misdemeanours  has significantly eroded the M.D.C –T ‘s support .This does not however automatically translate into support for Ncube in all cases but rather erosion of confidence in the whole voting and political process . thus contributing to apathy .This makes an electoral pact absolutely necessary as both parties could end up being the biggest losers .

The M.D.C formation  led  by Ncube has made a remarkable turn around and is indeed a force to reckon with but will not win the presidential or parliamentary elections .If Zimbabweans are still motivated primarily by the desire to remove Mugabe and ZANU P.F , the M.D.C [Ncube ]would then a become an unfortunate victim of broader protest politics  regardless of the quality of  their policies and candidate[s].Ncube will definitely make a huge mark on the southern part  of country but In the broader scheme of political arithmetic this may present an advantage to Mugabe and ZANU P.F  who will benefit  from a split presidential vote and splits in votes for parliamentary seats  coupled with apathy .

At the end of it all the two M.D.C ‘s should ensure that they maximize both the presidential and parliamentary votes and the best way of  doing this is through an electoral pact based on agreed upon formulas .

I agree as a Ndebele that it is unacceptable for a Ndebele to be only seen as a vice president and not be able to contest  for the post of president but in the current scheme of things Ncube can still mount a  formidable challenge in 2018 instead of going the “all or nothing” route .  The M.D.C –T is also presented with a win -win situation as they need to win the presidential election and secure a majority in parliament .

I am aware that there is  a lot of bitterness and acrimony  between the  two parties as a result of the original split in 2006 ,the failed 2008 agreement amongst other things .Such is life when a husband and wife fight all they remember are the worst attributes and characteristics  of the other person  .In essence the  two have more in common than they realize and they both have more to gain from an electoral pact .We need the genius and substance of Welshman Ncube  as well  as the charisma and brand of Morgan Tsvangirai .I am confident that the two leaders and two parties will show the nation that they are true statesmen and national leaders with the people at heart .What they are doing now is like the old story of little children who fight over what they would do with money if ever they picked it ,even before they have picked the money .Grow up .

 

Mayibuye I Zimbabwe

Dumisani  O Nkomo is the chief executive officer of Habakkuk Trust ,activist and spokesperson of the Matabeleland Civil Society Forum .He writes in his personal capacity .He can .be on Dumisani.nkomo@gmail.com or follow his blog dumisanionkomo.blogspot.com

 

What Is A Hero ?

Time To Redefine Heroes  and Heroines

By Dumisani O. Nkomo

The tragic and untimely death of the iconic former Highlanders and national team striker Adam Ndlovu has  ignited a spirited debate on who and what a national hero or heroine should be . Not for the first time Zimbabweans  from all walks of life with  have been begun to interrogate the narrow definition ,notion or  concept of “national heroes “ .All along one needed to have fought in the liberation struggle or have been a ZANU P.F stalwart to be declared a hero .

Critically as we move into the future it is critical and imperative to define or redefine  what heroism is and what or who heroes are beyond the narrow confines of liberation war politics .After all the generation of freedom fighters will one day all cease to exist but heroes will not  . I would like to argue that  heroes should not necessarily be politicians or people who partook in the liberation of the  country .Our concept of heroism should embrace any persons who have contributed their utmost for the development and upliftment  of the country  in every or any field of human endeavour .

This definition would for example include  people who have excelled in sport ,art ,science business ,charity and community work etc . Did Border Gezi or Chenjerai Hunzvi for example contribute more to the country than James Chimombe ,Adam Ndlovu ,Simon Chimbetu ,David Ndoda .What about the late great All African boxing champion Proud Chinembiri Kilimanjaro ,Langton Tinago ,Walter Kamba  ,Shacky Tauro  or Mercedes Sibanda  .Surely these individuals contributed more than most of the politicians  who are interred at heroes acre who’s claim to heroism is their affiliation and affinity to a political party .

There is a need  to define heroism beyond the narrow terrain of politics and identify outstanding academics such as Phineas Makhurane ,innovative scientists and artists  who have contributed to the greater good of the country not necessarily through the barrel of the gun but also through their talents ,ingenuity and passion .

Will Lovemore Majaivana ,Oliver Mutukudzi ,Cont Mhlanga ,Moses Chunga ,Peter Ndlovu ,Tim Price ,Heath Streak  and  Kirsty Coventry be considered not worthy of hero status when they served the country so loyally and outstandingly .In tennis we have the Black brothers ,Byron and Wayne and their sister Cara whilst in community and civic work   we have the likes of Betty Makoni and Sister Mahlangu  .In the business world  we have the likes of Nigel Chanakira ,Mthuli Ncube ,Sindiso Ngwenya [COMESA Secretary general ] and Strive Masiyiwa  who revolutionized sectors of the economy where they were positioned .All these individuals have contributed more to the  country than some politicians who have reduced the country to a glorified later day ruin .

Living Heroes and Awards

 I would also like to argue that as a country we need to start developing a culture of honouring living heroes   for their various contributions towards the betterment of the community and general populace .I am ware that the President of the country is empowered by the country’s laws to award various honors and awards and so are local authorities .There is need to utilize current spaces that exist to honor outstanding individuals within this framework .We do not have to wait for people to die before acknowledging their efforts . There  should be  a proper framework through relevant  statutes ,ordinances and laws to recognize the efforts of living heroines  and heroes .Politics aside maybe Thokozani Khuphe may deserve an award for her struggle to combat  cancer .One would also like to think that the likes of Vivian and Paddy Wilson who pioneered Chipangali Wild Life Orphanage deserved recognition  .There is also need to honour outstanding writers such as Shimmer Chinodya ,Sabelo Gatsheni Ndlovu ,Chenjerai Hove and Tsitsi Dangarembwga .

 

In this vein I would like to congratulate ZIFA for announcing the launch of the soccer hall of fame .Various institutions and sectors need to start honouring living legends through such initiatives and not necessarily wait for the government which may be unwilling or unable or unwilling and unable to confer such awards and honours to people in other sectors other than politics or ZANU P.F .

The soccer Hall of Fame would be incomplete without the likes of George Shaya ,James and Josiah Nxumalo ,Peter Nyama ,Obadiah Sarupinda ,Gibson Homela ,Musa Muzanenamho ,Majuta Mpofu , Tymon Mabaleka,Bruce Grobbelaar   from the sixties  and seventies .The list would be incomplete without Stanford “Stix” Mutizwa,Stanley Ndunduma,Willard Khumalo ,Japhet Muparutsa ,Misheck ,Chidzambwa ,Misheck Chidzambwa  ,Maronga Nyangela   .It would be a travesty of justice without Boy Ndlovu ,Joel Shambo  and the Ndlovu brothers not forgetting the mercurial Moses Chunga ,Friday Phiri ,Rahman Gumbo ,Eddy Katsvere or Oliver Kateya .Not all of these can qualify as national heroes but they certainly deserve to be honoured even post humously for some within their specific sporting sector .

The nation needs to engage in a conversation with itself on how we can define heroism in our context and experience .Whilst we all acknowledge and appreciate the liberation struggle we need to understand  that it is thirty years after independence and we need to start identifying  post independence ,cross sectorial heroes  .The spilling of blood through various means should not and cannot be the only way of honouring outstanding men and women .This exercise is too important to be left to one political party or institution whether that party is ZANU P.F or the M.D.C  formations

Dumisani O. Nkomo is an activist .He can be contacted on dumisani .nkomo@gmail.com or follow him on his blog dumisanionkomo .blogspot.com

Electoral Pacts Imperative

Election Pacts Inevitable and imperative

By Dumisani O. Nkomo

The harmonized election to be held next year presents Zimbabweans with a unique opportunity of once and for all confining ZANU P.F.  and its leadership to the dustbin of history. However as I have always consistently argued, it is not just about removing Mugabe and ZANU P.F. but rather removing a system and a political culture that have brought the country to its knees through official political gangsterism and  a  rogue “vampire state” that has devoured its citizens .Critically it would be naive at best and suicidal at best for any one political party to think that they can achieve electoral success without support from other political players. Whilst the M.D.C T arguably remains the biggest threat to Robert  Mugabe and ZANU P.F.  if we are to read from the script of the last election, the resurgence of Welshman  Ncube’s M.D.C especially in Matabeleland and parts of Midlands can only be ignored at great peril. Likewise the possibility of Dabengwa’s ZAPU stealing some ZANU P.F votes in ZANU P.F strongholds  remains a positive for the broader progressive movement. Admittedly both Simba Makoni ‘s Mavambo Kusile Dawn and Dabengwa’s ZAPU seem to have almost faded into political oblivion but as the late Professor Masiphula Sithole used to declare “all things are possible in politics and religion”. In this vein I would like to argue that  electoral pacts or alliances are likely to be formed or rather should be formed in order to ensure that Robert Mugabe’s ZANU P.F is defeated. Outside of this we may wake up to the shock ,trepidation and trauma of yet another ZANU P.F victory this time even without  recourse to  violence but due to the fragmentation of contesting political parties.

M.D.C and ZAPU

In my humble opinion ZAPU led by Dabengwa and Ncube’s  M.D.C  will need to form an electoral alliance since they are likely to fish from the same proverbial pond .They are likely to draw a lot of their support from the Matabeleland and Midlands. However Ncube’s M.D.C appears to have an upper hand since it also appeals to the younger generation  with its Information savvy strategies and multi faceted stakeholder engagement approach. ZAPU is likely to appeal to the older generation of former ZAPU supporters and disgruntled ZANU P.F supporters who may consider a move to any of the  M.D.C’s radical. The two parties may also converge ideologically as both propound the principle of devolution of power voraciously and seem to be assertive and about issues pertaining to Matabeleland. They are thus likely to find common ground because of this and may decide to form an alliance against ZANU P.F and the M.D.C T in order to preserve Matabeleland representation .To all intents and purposes neither are likely to win any seats outside Matabeleland and neither is likely to win a presidential election. However both will be critical in producing a president  as the M.D.C  T may need the  5 % to 10 % difference to win the presidential elections .If the Freedom House survey is anything to go by they will definitely need every vote due to ZANU P.F ‘s ascendancy. Fringe parties such as Siwela’s M.L.F and other small parties should not be ignored in the equation as they may not have much in terms of votes but their voice is critical in backing a common candidate or common candidates .

M.D.C –T and ZANU NDONGA

This alliance is likely to be formalized as there are already indications that the M.D.C –T is courting ZANU Ndonga .However the M.D.C –T is quite established in the former ZANU Ndonga strongholds of Chipinge but may just need to make sure with a strategic alliance with the late Rev Ndabaningi Sithole’s party which once created a an impenetrable fotress in Chipinge .This alliance is important for the M.D.C –T but  will not make any significant change on the electoral landscape .

M.D.C T  and M.D.C

An alliance between these two parties is absolutely essential and the absence of such an arrangement could be suicidal to both as ZANU P.F will benefit from a divided M.D.C votes ..Such an electoral alliance may take the shape of the two parties agreeing on who to field as council  and parliamentary candidates and fielding one presidential candidate. They should then identify the best candidates to stand at ward, constituency and senatorial level  and even consider able and competent people who may not be part of their parties but who may have the credentials to make good legislators. Whilst this is the most desirable scenario it will be scuttled by the stampede for parliamentary seats and the desire to prove who the boss is. Paradoxically the key to this electoral alliance depends on the political will of politicians from Matabeleland as they stand to gain or lose more than politicians in other parts of the country. This is because Matabeleland will be the most heavily contested region with M.D.C.-T ,M.D.C ,Z.A.N.U P.F and ZAPU staking a strong claim on the region unlike in other parts of the country where it may be a two horse contest between M.D.C T and ZANU P.F .

Presidential Elections

To be true to reality either ZANU P.F.  or the M.D.C –T are most likely to produce a president in the next elections but  the M.D.C led by Ncube may play a critical role in king making or deciding who becomes president since they may garner up to 10 % of the vote .It will then become necessary for the M.D.C T to negotiate with the M.D.C  now or risk an egg in the face after a  ZANU P.F electoral victory in the presidential or even parliamentary elections.

Parliament

The chances of a hung parliament or a parliament in which no political party has a majority is quite high with a possibility of the both ZANU P.F and M.D.C T requiring the support of the M.D.C led by Ncube. Although it is still possible for the M.D.C T to win a substantial number of votes and seats they would rather exercise wisdom and caution than throw caution to the wind and go it alone as this is probably their last chance of winning an election .The M.D.C led by Ncube has the luxury of potentially holding the deciding vote both in the presidential and parliamentary elections with an expected better showing in Matabeleland than in the previous election .Whilst Ncube may be a good presidential candidate and be of the right presidential material he is unlikely to win the presidential elections in 2013. Morgan Tsvangirai on the other hand will not win the election with a clear majority without the support of Welshman Ncube  and it becomes natural and practical in the best interests of the nation for the two to establish an election pact. If they do not do this both will lose but the biggest losers will be the people of Zimbabwe .

 

 

An election pact or alliance between the  two main M.D.C formation thus becomes an imperative which neither party can ignore. The situation on the ground ,history and past political behaviour seem to conspire against an electoral alliance or pact. This is evident is strategic blunders made by both M.D.C  formations. The most divisive issue will be the issue of  the recognition or lack of recognition of Welshman Ncube as principal by both ZANU P.F and the M.D.C –T . On the other hand the public haranguing of the Morgan Tsvangirai and the M.D.C –T by the M.D.C [Ncube ] has not helped issues. The two M.D C formations have formed a healthy alliance in the constitution making process although at times they failed to contain ZANU P.F and the two parties could build on this. They would need to translate their informal collective resistance to ZANU P.F. in the constitution making process to an active and pro-active electoral alliance against ZANU P.F .

Whatever the case is it would not be in the interest of Zimbabweans and indeed the interests of the M.D.C formations and ZAPU to enter the elections as a divided force as this could result in an election victory for Mugabe and ZANU P.F and several decades more “economic  and political purgatory for the people of Zimbabwe .

An electoral pact will inspire public confidence and faith in the elections as the possibility of change of government will be a certain reality given a broad based electoral alliance.

Dumisani. O. Nkomo is the Chief Executive Officer of Habakkuk Trust, Principal Spokesperson of the Matabeleland Civil Society Forum. He writes here in his personal capacity. He can be contacted on dumisani.nkomo@gmail or follow him on his blog dumisanionkomo.blogspot.com