NO LIE CAN LIVE FOREVER “Jasmine Revolutions and Zimbabwe”-
By Dumisani O Nkomo
The last few months have seen an unstoppable wave of popular uprisings in North Africa and the Middle east .
The protests have taken place in Tunisia ,Egypt , Libya ,Bahrain ,Oman ,Yemen ,Jordan .Analysts are predicting that Saudi Arabia may be next in line whilst the governments of China ,North Korea and Iran are watching these developments with interest and a degree of consternation as the tide of protests may rise like an avalanche at their doorsteps .The revolutions in North Africa and the Middle east will undeniably change the political architecture of the world and have a profound effect on international relations and diplomacy as the middle east has always been centrifugal to global politics .The contagion effect of the Arab revolutions could also send strong signals to sovereign regimes in the Kingdom of Swaziland and the republic of Zimbabwe .This article is a combination of the head and the heart ,it seeks to rationally analyze the probability of the popular uprisings occurring in other countries especially Zimbabwe whilst at the same time enthusing about the inevitability of change .The later has to do more with the heart than the head and to this end herein lies my argument about what Harold Macmillan described as “Winds of change “when describing the advent of African Nationalism and the fall of colonialism in the 60’s .
Geo Political Context of Revolutions\
It must be noted that the wave of popular uprising is taking place in Arab states with significant Moslem populations and with dictatorships that have been in power for over 30 years .The popular uprisings are also spearheaded by a new generation which believes in democracy and fundamental respect of human rights .Thus far the , geographical location of the protests has been limited to largely Arabic countries and as such it is most probable that similar popular uprisings will take place in countries that share similar historical ,socio cultural and religious experiences .The cry of God is great has been a common motif and motivation for multitudes that have risen against dictatorships and as such it would not be wrong to assume that religion and in this case Islam has played a major role in shaping the convictions of protestors .This is not to say Christians and other religions have not played a part but in any case the dominant role of religious awakening has played a pivotal role in the uprisings .If this is the case does it then disqualify similar experiences and processes from happening to the south of the continent which have less Arabic or Moslem influence .The new breed of “Arab and Moslem democracts are a new generation that will not brook dictatorship and are determined to bring people driven change to the Arab world .I would like to argue that people in southern and eastern and central Africa have the capacity to engage in similar popular uprisings but the probability of that happening is slim because an analysis of the current trends indicates that such uprisings are most likely to occur in countries with significant Arab/Moslem demographic architecture .
Having said this I would then go on to say that the political ,economic and social conditions that led to the Jasmine revolutions are the very same conditions that exist in countries such as Swaziland and Zimbabwe .Specifically in terms of political conditions there are similarities in that :
1.The countries were popular uprisings have taken place have been under dictatorships for decades .Libya has been ruled by Gadaffi under so called direct people’s rule for almost forty years .Egypt was under the personal grip of Hosni Mubarak for decades with the other smaller countries characterized by monarchical dictatorships .Swaziland has been under a repressive monarchical regime which banned political parties and restricted political activity .Zimbabwe has “enjoyed “ or rather endured a dictatorship by one party for three decades .
2.Repressive state apparatus –the police and the army were used to crush dissent and political activity in the counties were revolutions are taking place ..Similar conditions exist in our own country .
3.Corruption and Adverse Economic Conditions-the fallen and falling regimes are epitomized by kleptocratic regimes that have lined their own pockets whilst their subjects have groveled in grinding poverty .Former Tunisian leader Ben Ali is said to have been richer than Bill Gates whilst Gadaffi’s personal wealth is legendary .Political elites have created systems ,personal fiefdom and kingdoms were they preside over obscene wealth as later day feudal lords whilst their subjects labour as glorified serfs slaving for self serving leaders .In Zimbabwe we appear to have leaders who are richer than the government and personally fund construction of schools ,distribution of computers ,inputs etc whilst the state lacks capacity to do the same .Where do these people get this money when the government is broke and is failing to pay its workers .
4.Systematic Suppression of Fundamental Human Rights
The fallen and falling regimes have systematically negated their people of fundamental freedoms and rights such as rights to freedom of expression ,association ,political association etc .The government of Zimbabwe continues to flagrantly violate these rights as evidenced by the routine arrest of journalists last year as well as artists and activists .
Privatization of National Interests
Increasingly leaders of these counties misled themselves into believing that their own personal interests are similar to national interests .Effectively they have privatized national interests .This is why Gadaffi had the temerity of declaring that Libyans should fight for him and not surrender until the last drop of blood .
The New Generation Versus the Old Establishment
Nearly two generation have been born since the likes of Gadaffi came into power .A forty year old man could be having a twenty year old son or daughter with the intellect and energy to challenge the old regime and it seems most dictators are oblivious to the fact that they are ruling the wrong generation .The generation gap between the aging dictators and their subjects creates a time warp which can be corrected by popular uprisings in the absence of requisite democratic processes to enable legitimate regime change and leadership renewal .
It is therefore pertinent to note that a thirty year old Zimbabwean was born a year after independence and probably has his own family .Such a person whilst grateful for the liberation struggle is primarily concerned about whether or not he has a job ,food to eat for him and his family not wars that occurred thirty to forty years ago when neither he nor his family were even conceived . Leaders who fail to hand the baton to the next generation will be forcibly forced to so by the next generation who may do so in less dignified fashion .The peculiar thing about this new generation is that they are technologically competent and are able to communicate through social networks .No longer does mass mobilization have to be done with hailers and physical movement of organizers but as Tunisia and Egypt showed us popular uprisings can be organized using information communication technology .
Zimbabwe may be disadvantaged thus far due to the huge digital gap ,disabling legislation and incompetent service delivery vis a vis internet connectivity .
“No Lie Lives Forever
Oppressed people should take comfort in the words of Martin Luther King Junior when he eloquently and prophetically declared
“how long ?not long because no lie can live forever ,how long ?not long ,because the moral arch of the universe is long but it bends towards justice ,how long? not long ,because you shall reap what you have sown , how long ?not long, because truth crushed to the ground will rise again “So people of Zimbabwe do not despair because both history and fate concur that dictatorship can never last for ever .We saw that with the might of Hitler’s Nazi regime ,Mussolini’s Fascist dictatorship ,Franco in Spain ,Apartheid in South Africa ,the Iron Curtain of Eastern Europe ,Idi Amin and one party dictatorships in Kenya under Moi ,Zambai under Kaunda and Malawi under Banda .No amount of force ,cruelty or money can sustain a dictatorship forever .
History teaches us that “if change does not come voluntarily from the top ,it will come forcibly from the bottom “.That is why I agree with Macdonald Lewanika ,the two M.D.C formations and civil society that we need fundamental reforms epitomized by the full implementation of the Global Political Agreement .If ZANU PF insists on forcing its will on the people it will in the short term limit democratic space and create conditions conducive for popular uprising .Similarly the continued use of violence by the former ruling party could prove to be suicidal if people retaliate and there is a contagion effect .We could see scenes from Egypt and Libya being repeated here .ZANU PF has an opportunity to bring change from the top or face inevitable face change from the bottom which can become very uncomfortable for them .It is better to negotiate with the M.D.C Formations ,ZAPU and civil society than negotiate with a mob. If they close democratic space and limit political freedom they would have written their own political will living them nothing but the past and an uncertain future .Frederick de Clerk read the signs and ditched Apartheid so did Nicolai Gorbachev with his policy of Glasnost and Perestroika which ushered transparency and openness in the then Union of Soviet Socialist Republics .
“No lie can live forever “
“Mayibuye iZimbabwe”
Dumisani O Nkomo can be contacted on dumisani .nkomo@gmail.com .He writes here in his personal capacity
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