Unmasking The Strengths and Weaknesses of ZANU P.F -TAMING THE MONSTER
By Dumisani O. Nkomo
The tragedy of opposition politicians and civics in general is the fact that whilst there is widespread criticism of the shortcomings, ills and evils of ZANU PF there has been failure to critically analyze its structural strengths and weaknesses which have contributed to their continued gold on power .An analysis of empirical evidence focused on the party’s election strategies as well as political behavior will assist in formulating effective measures of containing and defeating ZANU P.F .
Advantages of Incumbency-
The fact that ZANU P.F has been in control of vital state structures and organs for thirty years presents it with huge advantages over the other political parties .The fact that in Zimbabwe the party and the state have been synonymous for a long time means that some key government structures at both central and local government levels have operated as quasi political structures serving the interests of ZANU P.F .
Compact and Effective Structures
The constitutional outreach process proved that ZANU P.F structures were better organized than other political parties in spite of ZANU P.F‘s unpopularity. They were able to mobilize their supporters by any means necessary. They dominated most meetings held in the rural areas and gave a strong showing in the towns. Whilst I do not in any way condone wayward ways of ZANU P.F it is critical to understand how ZANU P.F was able to dominate the constitution making process even though it did not have the support of most progressive forces .The mobility of local ZANU P.F structures was clearly evident as they were able to bus their small groups of their supporters from venue to venue .Quite clearly they operated using tactics from the liberation struggle using small groups of cadres as advance parties and using terror and persuasion to win the hearts and minds of the rural populace .What is then likely to emerge is ZANU P.F dominated constitution .The constitution making process was used by ZANU P.F strategists to gauge the preparedness of its structures for elections and whilst everybody was busy with the constitution making agenda they were busy preparing for elections and now whilst everybody is blindly following the election agenda they are already thinking about post election power dynamics .To this end they are tactically and technically superior to the other political parties
Strategy Formulation
ZANU P.F and Mugabe in particular have become masters of political stratagem .Opposition parties have since 1980 been forced to be constantly reacting to agendas set by ZANU P.F .Importantly after the government’s draft constitution was rejected by Zimbabweans in 2000 it looked like ZANU P.F was poised for a crushing defeat at the hands of the M.D.C But in a space of six months ZANU P.F changed the both the political discourse and direction of the nation through the chaotic land reform project which saw thousands of former farm workers being displaced and thousands of deserving people failing to receive land .New ZANU PF strongholds were created in resettlement areas and potential opposition strongholds were weakened by deployment through resettlement .
Current Election Strategy
Besides the usual tactic of violence ZANU P.F is already targeting various publics including Independent African Churches ,youths ,indigenous business persons , artistes and “farmers” .It appears ZANU P.F is a diligent student of Machiavelli who counsels that at times force may not be necessary where persuasion or political fraud can work .
The youth have also been targetted through youth “friendly “methods such as music and dance with a number of young artistes pledging their support for Mugabe and ZANU P.F . The young artistes are being used as part of the ZANU P.F propaganda machinery in an attempt to woe those voters born after independence or the “born frees” .This is a new strategy as ZANU P.F has always focused on it’s traditional rural support base in the Mashonaland ,parts of Masvingo,Midlands and Manicaland .
This youth strategy is also buttressed through structures of the Ministry of Youth which although purporting to be non partisan provides opportunities for party youths or those who choose to align with ZANU P.F to benefit from small loans to start micro enterprises .
Indigenization campaign
The ZANU P.F machinery has already strategically positioned itself beyond the debate on land to that of the extractive sector and industry by dangling the indigenization carrot to thousands of struggling black entrepreneurs .In the same manner in which land was used as a tool of enticing the rural vote, “indigenization “which in itself is not bad if implemented properly is being used to gain inroads into emerging urban elites ,the middle class and young black businessmen
African Politics and Diplomacy
Whilst ZANU P.F is clearly out of favour with the European Union and the Americas it has managed to win the souls of Africa through arguments on sovereignty and anti neo colonial rhetoric .They [ZANU P.F ]seem to have a far better understanding of how African politics and diplomacy works and have managed to skillfully and deceitfully evade scrutiny from numerous SADC summits. Due to the weaknesses of opposition parties at international level ZANU PF has managed to run rings around their opponents and blocked any meaningful interventions from SADC as a the most critical player in the Zimbabwean transitional process .The proposed SADC roadmap to free elections may fall victim to ZANUP.F shenanigans and chicanery
Traditional Structures
ZANU PF has always and will continue to use or abuse traditional structures as a tool of political coercion in plebiscites and this is already evident in that contrary to the Traditional Leaders Act some chiefs have openly declared their support for the incumbent and ZANU P.F .Strategically traditional leadership structures filter to village level and serve as a useful appendages of ZANU P.F party structures come election time .
Summation of Strengths
The above strategies which are a combination of force ,fraud ,coercion and persuasion are already being used to target different “electorates divided into divergent interests .Interestingly ZANU P.F is no longer just interested in consolidating its traditional support base but is actively engaging and enticing new target groups such as organized business ,urban youths ,churches and academics .Where coercion fails violence will be used but in a tactical and targetted manner .In Matabeland which is crucial to attaining an electoral majority ZANU P.F will make a spirited attempt to win one seat in Bulawayo ,four in Matabeleland South and two seats in Matabeleland North .They will pray for apathy in the elections so that their loyal supporters vote in their numbers and hope that the opposition vote in Matabeland is split between ZAPU and the two M.D.C ‘S .They will also hope that the opposition presidential vote will be split between two even three aspirants just Simba Makoni’s slice of the vote which was just above six percent made a great difference in deciding the course of the electoral contest .
Weaknesses/Deficiencies
The factors that militate against ZANUP.F ‘s electoral success are numerous and do not need the ingenuity of a political scientist .
The Credibility Deficit
ZANU P.F is associated [and rightly so ]with the collapse of the economy ,corruption ,chaos ,anarchy ,poverty ,deterioration of service delivery and mass poverty. The electorate believes that ZANU P.F has failed for the last thirty years an nothing short of miracle will make them win elections fairly
ZANU P.F Is A Losing Brand
Closely tied to this is the undeniable fact that ZANU P.F is a losing brand and for many especially young people it has no place in the future .It is associated with all manner of failure and as such people do not want to associate with failure .Sovereignty ,loyalty and patriotism will not pay people ‘s rent ,give them bread or jobs .
Diminishing Influence of State Media
ZANU P.F ‘S of the state media for propaganda purposes will fail because of the emergence of alternative media in the form of Satellite T.V and short wave radio as well as independent print media .Even in rural areas few people now listen or watch Z.B.C .A lot of resources may thus be wasted on flogging a “dead donkey “
Reverse Propaganda
ZANU P.F’s propaganda machinery may achieve results contrary to their expectations as people will believe the opposite of whatever the state media is saying .The government’s vote yes campaign of2000 is an example of how people voted no because of what they perceived to a ploy to hoodwink them through the .The electorate is in the mode of supporting whoever is the victim and is likely to disbelieve whatever is said against opposition parties .
Immunity to Violence
It is debatable whether violence will actually translate to more votes for ZANU P.F as people adapt and react to it Even though this was generally true of elections held in June 2008 this may not be necessarily so as was proved in 1985 when ZANU P.F was comprehensively defeated by P.F ZAPU in Matabeleland after the state sanctioned Gukurahundi massacres .Ultimately people may choose to attend ZANU P.F meetings ,eat the food they are given ,chant party slogans but in the ballot booth the secrecy of the vote will reign supreme .
Dumisani Nkomo is the Chief Executive Officer of Habakkuk Trust and Principal Spokesperson of the Matabeleland Civil Society Consortium-he writes here in his personal capacity
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