Way Zimbabwe ?Elections –Options and Alternatives
By Dumisani O. Nkomo-Chief Executive Officer –Habakkuk Trust[he writes here in his personal capacity]
Zimbabwe is in a continual state of déjà vues as we seem to be moving in circles in as far as the political logjam is concerned what with the latest SADC debacle , the hullaballoo about elections and in the midst of that the disappearance of the constitution reform agenda from the political topography of the nation .
I would like to suggest that the season demands and requires leaders who will look beyond narrow sectarian ,personal and party interests and put the country first .We should not allow our judgment to be eclipsed by the here and now especially the hype about elections which usually culminates in us sacrificing our values ,vision ,priorities and intimately inter woven with this, the interests of the people of Zimbabwe .I consistently maintain that the Global Agreement with it’s numerous flaws offers a reasonable roadmap for the country for at least the next three to four years of transition which I believe we needed for constitutional, legislative and institutional reform ,national healing ,economic stability and growth .
There is a feeling of helplessness and hopelessness about the inevitability of elections albeit in an overtly unfair and uneven political playing field epitomized by growing political tension ,the arrest of journalists ,an incomplete constitutional reform process and the proposed draconian legislation limiting public access to critical information .In the midst of this I would like to explore several options that could be considered by progressive Zimbabweans .They are not exhaustive or conclusive but are an invitation to a conversation about our nation offering a framework of alternative pro active action .Come let us reason and think about these issues .
A Poll Boycott
Who says everybody has to dance to the tune of one person and one party by blindly participating in elections .One option would be to take the initiative from President Mugabe by boycotting elections unless minimal demands are met .This would have the effect of isolating ZANU P.F and its leader and to highlight the gravity of the political crisis to the international community .It would also delegitimize whatever government comes into place .Hopefully this stance would force SADC to intervene before such an election .However a poll boycott does have its downside .First of all Mugabe and ZANU PF could simply ignore the boycott and continue with business as usual as they did in the inconsequential one man 2008 presidential second round of elections .The action would only embarrass SADC and Mugabe but we all know that embarrassment may not be enough to stop ZANU PF as they have become insulated to it .Furthermore a boycott could take us back by another ten years as the next election would be in another 5 years .ZANU PF would unopposed and there would be no alternative representation .The gains made in the post 2008 period would be reversed in one fell swoop as a partisan parliament would pass more repressive legislation .Investor confidence[what is left of it ] ill dwindle and there could be scaling up of “measures and sanctions .The Chiadzwa diamonds could come in handy in propping up the regime although a ban of exports of the mineral is likely to be intensified .In the interests of the nation a poll boycott would mean a lot of pain for the people of Zimbabwe in the short to medium term .
The objective of such an action would be to force the SADC ,A.U and the international community to push for comprehensive political and economic reforms .The poll boycott strategy would only work if understood in the context of strategic action and as a means to an end not an end itself .This option is thus possible but ineffective but would work as an act of political “melodrama “to gain leverage to negotiate for an even playing field .At best it would work as a threat and not something to be actually done .The opposition should count the cost before it engages in this act which could either be a sacrifice resulting in long term gain but conversely could be a form of advanced political suicide if not done properly .
Minimalist Approach
There is a school of thought especially in sections of civil society that elections should only be held only if certain minimum demands are met .Such minimum demands are limited to election related issues such as the immediate political environment ,targetted legislative reform ,regional and international election observers and provision of constitutional mechanisms for transfer of power .This approach seems to be the most realistic but is based on a set of assumptions ,the most important assumption is that these minimalist demands will be met .I seriously doubt that ZANU PF will agree to international observers as this will play into “the west is interfering propaganda ‘.Peripheral and window dressing reform will be made as is the case already with proposals that election results be announced within reasonable time .In countries such as Kenya and Tanzania incumbents have used this to claim early victories and have quickly sworn themselves in and sworn at their opponents .
Rainbow Alliance and Minimum Demands
The only sure way of wresting power from the incumbent in an election under the current conditions is for opposition parties to form a sort of rainbow coalition. They may not want to be called opposition parties but the realty is that in terms of power they are an opposition and ZANU P.F for now is controlling the unity government .This is however not the subject of this article but my argument is that these parties have to agree on an electoral pact under which they would back one candidate in the presidential elections .The only three things that stand in the way of such an arrangement are namely :inflated egos ,insatiable political appetites and ideological differences .It is pertinent and imperative for the leaders of M.D.C T ,M.D.C led by Mutambara ,ZAPU , Simba Makoni and other progressive forces to come together and form a loose coalition within the framework of an electoral pact which would enshrine a formula for fielding candidates in various constituencies and importantly one candidate for the presidential elections .
Opposition party leaders should put aside their differences and put the national interest above partisan interests .Our leaders will have to put aside their political libidos and egos and immediately start working towards such al pact as a matter of the first capital urgency instead of wasting time castigating each other and grandstanding .
An analysis of political behavior in the last ten years shows that though this is the most desirable scenario ,
‘our winner take all ,nation gains nothing” attitude may be our biggest enemy .The two M.D.C factions were on the verge of an agreement in the run up to the 2008 harmonized elections but alas insanity and expediency prevailed over reason and the two parties contested against each other and supported different candidates .Consequently unnecessary losses were recorded in places such as Mazoe South were the two M.D.C candidates posted a combined vote of 5,453 against ZANU P.F ‘s 4,109 but lost the seat to ZANU PF as a result of split .Realistically though some opposition parties do not seem to add any value to the electoral and democratic experience as displayed by some of the 13 parties that contested in the 2008 parliamentary elections .Moreprecision Muzadzi ’s Voice of the People Party showed little precision garnering 63 votes nation wide whilst the Zimbabwe Youth In Alliance garnered 7 votes .Obvioulsy alliances with such parties would not be politically cost effective but the strength of Dumiso Dabengwa’s ZAPU and the key role it could play in the transfer of power equation cannot be ignored ,neither can the value Of M.D.C ‘s M’s political talent combined with the mass appeal of the M.D.C T and the charisma of Morgan Tsvangirai as well as the intelligence of Simba Makoni .
The combined political weight of Morgan Tsvangirai /Tendai Biti ,Arthur Mutambara/Welshman Ncube ,Dumiso Dabengwa and Simba Makoni will literally decimate ZANU PF any election even if the ruling party were to resort to violence .These leaders should realize the importance of running together not against each other in this important national race where the biggest winners will be the Zimbawean people .
In the 2008 [round I ]presidential race Morgan Tsvangirai’s garnered 1,1079,730 [approximately 47,9 % ]of the votes against Robert Mugabe’s 1,079,730 [43,2 % of the vote ] with Simba Makoni [backed by M.D.C –M ] garnering 207,470 votes around [8,3 %of the votes] . Simple arithmetic then infers that if M.D.C T ,M.D.C M and the Mavambo Project had backed one candidate ,in that case Tsvangirai Zimbabwe ‘s political history and indeed future would have been different .Obviously these parties and their leaders differ on ideological grounds but when a house is on fire the identity ,religion and political opinion of those trying to put out the fire ceases to be important .Interparty talks between the three parties is therefore critical .Political maturity ,statesmanship and spiritual /moral intelligence should triumph over short termism, a creed greed ,self seeking naked political ambition and narrow interests Zimbabwe should come first .
This Alliance should then demand that elections be held in conformity with the SADC Guidelines and Principles on the Conduct of Democratic Elections which espouse the creation of a level electoral playing field .Observers from SADC and other countries should be in the country at least ninety days before the actual election day so that they can monitor the pre election environment which is usually fraught with violence and not the actual voting day only as this tends to be a largely political ritual carried out to the satisfaction of those observing election day processes .It is unlikely that observers from the E.U will be accredited to observe .Whilst this may be desirable it may be impossible because of official paranoia and “devil behind every bush “philosophy held so dearly by ZANU PF .The voters roll needs to be updated and accessible ,the state media accessible to all political parties and repressive legislation reviewed
The Best Option
The best route remains the full implementation of the Global Political Agreement with emphasis on constitutional and institutional reform ,national healing not national dealing and economic stability and growth .Elections for now are a short cut and could be a short cut to nowhere .We need to script a new framework that provides for democratization of state institutions and processes as well as a conducive environment for investment and growth .Our pre occupation with elections could result in negative imaging culminating in continued investor fatigue ,increased unemployment and decline in wages as a result of massive fall in capacity utilization in the industrial sector .After all what is most important to people right now is their economic well being .
I know other argue that there are too many centres of power In the current government hence decision \\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\making is problematic but we have to view this as an evolutionary process not a once off revolution which may result in a change of actors but maintain the script .Efforts should continue to prove to SADC that unless the Zimbabwean crisis /stalemate is resolved it could have a dire consequence on the peace ,security and economic well being of the entire sub region especially South Africa which could face a fresh influx of immigrants from Zimbabwe thus causing unrest in the socie-economic and political architecture of the country as nationals lose jobs to foreigners thus heightening xenophobia and political tension .
The roadmap provided by the G.P.A is shaky but ensures that we are not just preparing for a democratic election but rather democratic governance characterized by democratic processes ,laws and institutions
Dumisani can be contacted on dumisani.nkomo@gmail.com
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