THE DYNAMICS OF POWER POLITICS –WHAT WILL HAPPEN IF MUGABE LEAVES
BY Dumisani O. Nkomo
The cry of many opposition groups and Zimbabweans for the past few decades has been for President Mugabe to “go “and numerous avenues of his political exit have been explored and debated .This exit is however inevitable with the passage of time and could come in the form of legitimate electoral processes ,divine or natural processes as no one can possibly live forever and at 87 it is critical for us as Zimbabweans to start thinking of what will happen if Mugabe is no longer available to lead the country ,is incapacitated or succumbs to natural or biological processes or divinity .I would like to argue that the issue of transfer of power is going to be very critical in the next few years if not months and failure to appreciate the dynamics of power could result in Mugabe going without any democratic transition taking place .It is important to understand that a lot of the current political maneuvering within ZANU P.F is largely in the context of succession politics and if this is not handled carefully the country could very easily find itself being run by a military dictatorship .
Whilst many argue that the securoctrat are already running the country ,the possibilities of the military overtly and effectively taking the reigns of power if Mugabe goes are very high .Given perceptions and speculation about the president’s health and the mortality of all human kind it becomes not only necessary but also critical to ponder and cogitate about possibilities should the president’s health not improve either now or in the next few years .
The implication of an early election or any other legitimate process of regime change will also bring us back to the same question of transfer of power which nobody in the opposition parties seems to have an answer to .Will an election this year be really about settling the issue of contested elections and the undesirability of a government of national unity or will it be about dealing with succession issues within ZANU P.F .Mugabe is undoubtedly ZANU PF ‘s trump card In an election in spite of his blighted human rights record he still commands the support and respect of his supporters .ZANU P.F stewards would also be making permutations on their electoral performance if elections are held in 2013 in the absence of Mugabe and possibly would envisage defeat at the hands of the political foes in the absence of the octogenarian leader .What would happen upon his demise due the aforementioned natural processes? Would ZANU P.F disintegrate? Will there be open fighting between the ZANUP.F factions, will the army take over? Or will the party close ranks and choose either Mnangwagwa or Mujuru or even Chiwengwa as successor ?Would the demise of Mugabe at this point be good for the nation or would it plunge the country into chaos as the military steps in ?Are there possibilities of moderators or reformists taking over ZANU P.F and as some analysts have suggested a “new “ZANU P.F being birthed .Will a Gorbachev or a de Klerk emerge from ZANU P.F or will another megalomaniac emerge and what will be the role of the other political parties namely the M.D.C formations and ZAPU be in this scenario ?.These are the kind of questions that I will briefly interrogate and proffer a few suggestions and more rhetorical questions .
Will The Army Take Over?
Chances of the military taking over should the incumbent go are undesirable but highly possible .If this happens the new junta could dissolve the unity government and arrest opposition leaders with others fleeing the country .SADC ,,the A.U and the international community would make a lot of noise but to no avail as is the norm .However it is possible that a noble “regime may take over and hand over to a transitional authority .This is desirable but highly unlikely .A military government would be highly undesirable and could take the country back by another ten to twenty years in terms of democratic reform and respect for civil liberties .
Mujuru Takes Over
Should the incumbent be incapacitated by any factors or processes beyond his control there is also a possibility that the two houses of parliament may sit as an electoral college and nominate a “successor “.Joyce Mujuru seems to appeal to a broad cross section including business and possibly the M.D.C formations and ZAPU .She could emerge as a compromise candidate .Possibilities of a reform agenda are moderately and reasonably higher should she take over the reigns .If this scenario prevails there could be movement towards a form of “glasnost and perestroika “openness and transparency Soviet Union style .This scenario would be most welcome and could give Zimbabwe space to reform and stabilize outside of other better and practical options .
ZANU P.F BREAKS DOWN
Robert Mugabe has personified and embodied ZANU PF and ZANUISM and his demise could spell the rapid destruction of the party .He has delicately managed various factions within the party making sure that no faction is too strong and that any faction that seems to be growing too strong is weakened and the faction which is weaker is strengthened but in the process making himself the most relevant political currency in his party .The likelihood of ZANU P.F descending into anarchy once he leaves is high and whilst this may be desirable for many this would be most undesirable if and when it spills into the public domain of governance and triggers national chaos as party hawks ,vultures and other political scavengers descend on the national carcass and ravage democracy .Can ZANU P.F survive without Mugabe? This is a question which I am sure many party stalwarts are battling with and are making strategic positions about .
If Elections Are Held This Year
If elections are held this year there will be increased violence at all levels as the early warning systems already indicate through the manifestations of anarchy and the structures that breed it .Fear will be used to cow people to submission and opposition leaders will be arrested en masse for various crimes as is the case now .At a community level party youths will be used to harass and intimidate villagers and residents .Opposition leaders will be targetted through the police and state security agents resulting in them spending the bulk of their time fighting court cases instead of campaigning .Results of a survey carried out by Professor Susan Booysen working with the Mass Public Opinion Institute suggest that the M.D.C T ‘s support base has been eroded from around 55 % in 2009 to about 38 % .Even if this figure is not accurate the constitutional outreach process is a significant indicator that ZANU PF may win the elections .if ZANU P.F wins the elections we could be back to the days of the Zimbawean dollar ,shortages and unprecedented suffering .This will enable Mugabe to facilitate some kind of succession positioning as Joyce Mujuru would be strategically positioned to take over “should anything happen “ .ZANU PF would gun for a parliamentary majority so that they can ensure that a leader of their choice is elected by both houses of parliament should Mugabe be unable to continue .
IF M.D.C WINS
In the event of the M.D.C formations forming an electoral pact with ZAPU and winning the elections the same question of transfer of power will emerge because there has to be a mechanism of transferring the electoral conquest into actual power to govern .
I rest my case
Mayibuye iZimbabwe
Dumisani O Nkomo
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